Caerau Ely vs Gap Connahs Quay – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:2
16/02/2025 at 07:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • WALES: FA Cup - Quarter-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomS4C Clic, S4C

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 3', Kenny J. 🟨,
  • 29', Sheppard G. 🟨,
  • 31', 0 - 1, Hughes R. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Bratley C. , Durrant S. ,
  • 56', 0 - 2, Edwards N. ,
  • 58', Edwards N. 🟨,
  • 61', Bishop L. , Samson H. ,
  • 66', Durrant S. , Williams A. ,
  • 79', McLean T. 🟨,
  • 80', Disney J. 🟨,
  • 83', Ashford J. , Banner J. D. R. ,
  • 89', Hughes R. , Wright O. ,

Chances of winning


Caerau Ely
18.8%
Draw
21.6%
Gap Connahs Quay
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
23.5% 23.3% 53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29% 18.9% 43.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)
  • Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gap Connahs Quay's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caerau Ely, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-16.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Caerau Ely - Gap Connahs Quay Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.83
    (3.88)
    4.2
    (3.92)
    1.53
    (1.71)
    10%
    (9.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    Preview Facts
    • Both teams are in bad shape now.
    • Caerau could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Connahs Quay is a favorite.
    • Recently, the teams did not play each other.
    Latest results of Caerau Ely
    Latest results of Gap Connahs Quay
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/64-finals
    1PorthmadogDenbigh3 : 2
    2ByeBuckley
    3Port TalbotSeven Sisters2 : 1
    4Afan LidoEvans Williams3 : 2
    5PwllheliRhyl1 : 3
    6BrickfieldNFA3 : 1
    7Llantwit MajorBaglan Dragons2 : 0
    8Cwmbran TownYnyshir Albions5 : 4
    9LlanelliBye
    10ByeHaverfordwest
    11AberystwythBye
    12ByeBarry
    13CaerphillyCaldicot1 : 3
    14Penrhiwceiber RangersPentwynmawr Ath7 : 0
    15Saltney TownGresford3 : 7
    16LlanrugRuthin4 : 3
    17Cardiff MetropolitanBye
    18Taffs WellAbertillery Excelsiors2 : 1
    19Mold AlexandraBye
    20ByeTNS
    21NewtownBye
    22ByeCaernarfon
    23LlannefyddLlanberis5 : 1
    24PenrhyncochSychdyn Utd2 : 0
    25LlwydcoedLliswerry3 : 1
    26PillTreowen (WO.)
    27PontypriddBye
    28RhayaderCefn Cribwr1 : 4
    29Carmarthen TownBye
    30ByeTrethomas Bluebirds
    31Llanfair UnitedKinmel Bay1 : 2
    32ByeColwyn Bay
    33Goytre UtdAmmanford2 : 1
    34ByeCambrian United
    35Briton FerryBye
    36ByePenybont
    37Bow StreetCefn Albion4 : 2
    38ByeFlint
    39HolyheadForden Utd4 : 0
    40ByeAirbus
    41Cwmbach RoyalGarden Village3 : 4
    42Tredegar TownGlynneath Town1 : 3
    43Broughton UtdWelshpool2 : 1
    44Berriew FCTrearddur Bay0 : 3
    45Newport CityBye
    46Penygraig UtdCwm Welfare3 : 2
    47Blaenavon BluesCanton4 : 1
    48PontyclunTata4 : 1
    49St. AsaphBangor 18760 : 6
    50ByeGuilsfield
    51HolywellBye
    52RhostyllenNefyn United5 : 2
    53Dinas PowysAfan United3 : 1
    54Cardiff DraconiansCwmbran Celtic4 : 2
    55Abercarn UnitedSwansea University1 : 2
    56ByeTrefelin
    57Caersws FCHawarden Rangers6 : 1
    58Dolgellau AthleticQueens Park8 : 3
    59PenydarrenCaerau Ely0 : 5
    60Morriston TownClydach1 : 0
    61LlandudnoBye
    62ByeFlint Mountain
    63BalaBye
    64ByeConnahs Q.

    1/32-finals
    1PorthmadogBuckley1 : 0
    2Port TalbotAfan Lido3 : 1
    3RhylBrickfield1 : 0
    4Llantwit MajorCwmbran Town1 : 2
    5LlanelliHaverfordwest3 : 0
    6AberystwythBarry0 : 5
    7CaldicotPenrhiwceiber Rangers0 : 2
    8GresfordLlanrug9 : 0
    9Cardiff MetropolitanTaffs Well5 : 1
    10Mold AlexandraTNS1 : 2
    11NewtownCaernarfon0 : 3
    12LlannefyddPenrhyncoch1 : 2
    13LlwydcoedTreowen2 : 5
    14PontypriddCefn Cribwr3 : 1
    15Carmarthen TownTrethomas Bluebirds5 : 1
    16Kinmel BayColwyn Bay0 : 5
    17Goytre UtdCambrian United0 : 6
    18Briton FerryPenybont0 : 5
    19Bow StreetFlint0 : 3
    20HolyheadAirbus2 : 5
    21Garden VillageGlynneath Town2 : 4
    22Broughton UtdTrearddur Bay0 : 6
    23Newport CityPenygraig Utd3 : 1
    24Blaenavon BluesPontyclun4 : 2
    25Bangor 1876Guilsfield2 : 1
    26HolywellRhostyllen3 : 2
    27Dinas PowysCardiff Draconians1 : 3
    28Swansea UniversityTrefelin1 : 6
    29Caersws FCDolgellau Athletic0 : 1
    30Caerau ElyMorriston Town3 : 0
    31LlandudnoFlint Mountain3 : 0
    32BalaConnahs Q.0 : 3

    1/16-finals
    1PorthmadogPort Talbot3 : 2
    2RhylCwmbran Town3 : 2
    3LlanelliBarry0 : 6
    4Penrhiwceiber RangersGresford0 : 3
    5Cardiff MetropolitanTNS2 : 1
    6CaernarfonPenrhyncoch4 : 0
    7TreowenPontypridd1 : 2
    8Carmarthen TownColwyn Bay1 : 3
    9Cambrian UnitedPenybont1 : 3
    10FlintAirbus1 : 0
    11Glynneath TownTrearddur Bay2 : 5
    12Newport CityBlaenavon Blues3 : 2
    13Bangor 1876Holywell2 : 1
    14Cardiff DraconiansTrefelin3 : 4
    15Dolgellau AthleticCaerau Ely0 : 2
    16LlandudnoConnahs Q.2 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1PorthmadogRhyl1 : 2
    2BarryGresford4 : 0
    3Cardiff MetropolitanCaernarfon2 : 4
    4PontypriddColwyn Bay0 : 3
    5PenybontFlint0 : 1
    6Trearddur BayNewport City5 : 3
    7Bangor 1876Trefelin2 : 0
    8Caerau ElyLlandudno2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1RhylBarry2 : 1
    2CaernarfonColwyn Bay4 : 1
    3FlintTrearddur Bay3 : 0
    4Bangor 1876Caerau Ely3 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1RhylCaernarfon
    2FlintBangor 1876

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2