Result
1:2
16/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 13', 0 - 1, Ware L. ⚽,
- 45+4', 0 - 2, Pascoe J. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 66', Parker T. 🟨,
- 85', 1 - 2, Redhead O. ⚽,
- 90+1', 🟥,
Chances of winning
Caerau Ely
40% | Draw
25% | Trefelin
35% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
Caerau Ely - Trefelin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.28 ↑
(2.27) |
3.65 ↓
(3.93) |
2.6 ↓
(2.61) |
9.8%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Caerau Ely - Trefelin?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Caerau will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Trefelin will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trefelin: 44.1% – 94.3%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Trefelin will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 2.
- Caerau is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Trefelin is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Trefelin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Caerau won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Caerau Ely won against Trefelin?
Caerau Ely has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Trefelin won against Caerau Ely?
Trefelin has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Caerau Ely - Trefelin were as follows:
26.12.2025
Trefelin
-
Caerau Ely
3:0
18.07.2025
Caerau Ely
-
Trefelin
3:4
12.11.2024
Caerau Ely
-
Trefelin
2:0
26.07.2024
Trefelin
-
Caerau Ely
1:0
20.07.2024
Caerau Ely
-
Trefelin
2:1
Latest results of Caerau Ely
Latest results of Trefelin
Welsh Cymru South Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Trefelin ✔ | 29 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 78:17 | 61 | 75 |
| 2 | Cambrian United ✔ | 29 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 72:19 | 53 | 73 |
| 3 | Ammanford | 29 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 47:25 | 22 | 57 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 66:34 | 32 | 56 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 44:34 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 35:38 | -3 | 43 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 46:47 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 43:44 | -1 | 37 |
| 9 | Newport City | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 36:43 | -7 | 37 |
| 10 | Treowen | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 47:62 | -15 | 34 |
| 11 | Pontypridd | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 46:51 | -5 | 33 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 31:53 | -22 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 44:61 | -17 | 28 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 25:51 | -26 | 24 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 29 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 27:56 | -29 | 22 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 29 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 24:76 | -52 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Cymru Premier
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Trefelin is Qualified for Cymru Premier
Cambrian United is Qualified for Cymru Premier
