Result
1:3
07/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belgium | HBO Max, HBO Max |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | HBO Max |
 Brazil | ESPN 2 |
 Bulgaria | HBO Max |
 Croatia | HBO Max |
 Czech-republic | HBO Max |
 Denmark | 6'eren, HBO Max |
 Finland | HBO Max, TV5 |
 France | HBO Max |
 Germany | Sky Sport Tennis |
 Hungary | HBO Max |
 Moldova | HBO Max |
 Montenegro | HBO Max |
 Netherlands | HBO Max |
 North-macedonia | HBO Max |
 Norway | HBO Max |
 Poland | HBO Max |
 Romania | HBO Max |
 Serbia | HBO Max |
 Slovenia | HBO Max |
 Spain | HBO Max |
 Sweden | HBO Max, Kanal 9 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Main Event |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| 1st Serve Percentage |
|---|
| 48% | 61% |
| 1st Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 69% (37/54) | 83% (45/54) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 48% (28/58) | 57% (20/35) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 0% (0/1) |
| Average 1st Serve Speed |
|---|
| 193 km/h | 192 km/h |
| Average 2nd Serve Speed |
|---|
| 155 km/h | 157 km/h |
| 1st Return Points Won |
|---|
| 19% (10/54) | 43% (23/54) |
| 2nd Return Points Won |
|---|
| 43% (15/35) | 52% (30/58) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 100% (1/1) | 45% (5/11) |
| Winners |
|---|
| 21 | 41 |
| Unforced Errors |
|---|
| 28 | 24 |
| Net Points Won |
|---|
| 73% (19/26) | 74% (20/27) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 58% (65/112) | 73% (65/89) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 27% (24/89) | 42% (47/112) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 44% (89/201) | 56% (112/201) |
| Last 10 Balls |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Match Points Saved |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Service Games Won |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 94% (16/17) |
| Return Games Won |
|---|
| 6% (1/17) | 29% (5/17) |
| Total Games Won |
|---|
| 38% (13/34) | 62% (21/34) |
| Distance Covered (metres) |
|---|
| 2325 | 2418 |
Chances of winning
Jannik Sinner
53.6% | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
46.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)The ML Model estimate for Jannik Sinner aligns with the current prediction.The ML Model estimate for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia aligns with the current prediction.
Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.8 ↓
(1.82) |
|
2.08 ↑
(2.05) |
3.7%
(3.9%) | |
What is the prediction for Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Users Predictions:
84 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 32 - 38.1%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 52 - 61.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 51.5% – 72.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Sinner (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 39.5 Games - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.
Preview Facts
- Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 3.
- Each of the two players have built a series of wins lately.
- The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.4:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Jannik Sinner won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Jannik Sinner has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Jannik Sinner?
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 7 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:
18.08.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Sinner J. retired
13.07.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
3:1
08.06.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
2:3
18.05.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
0:2
19.10.2024
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
2:1
Latest results of Jannik Sinner
Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Draw
Singles - Main1/64-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Kopriva V. | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Popyrin A. | Ruusuvuori E. | 3 : 0 |
| 3 | Royer V. (WC) | Bu Y. | 3 : 0 |
| 4 | Fucsovics M. | Shapovalov D. (27) | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Bublik A. (23) | Cilic M. | 3 : 0 |
| 6 | Sonego L. | Schoolkate T. (WC) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Borges N. | Holt B. | 3 : 0 |
| 8 | Moller E. | Paul T. (14) | 0 : 3 |
| 9 | Musetti L. (10) | Mpetshi Perricard G. | 3 : 1 |
| 10 | Halys Q. | Goffin D. | 1 : 3 |
| 11 | Brooksby J. | Vukic A. | 3 : 2 |
| 12 | Passaro F. (Q) | Cobolli F. (24) | 2 : 3 |
| 13 | Diallo G. (31) | Dzumhur D. | 3 : 1 |
| 14 | Munar J. | Faria J. (LL) | 3 : 1 |
| 15 | Bergs Z. | Tseng C. H. | 3 : 0 |
| 16 | Gomez F. A. (Q) | Draper J. (5) | 1 : 3 |
| 17 | Zverev A. (3) | Tabilo A. | 3 : 0 |
| 18 | Bautista-Agut R. | Fearnley J. | 1 : 3 |
| 19 | Monfils G. | Safiullin R. | 2 : 3 |
| 20 | Harris B. (LL) | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | 0 : 3 |
| 21 | Humbert U. (22) | Walton A. | 1 : 3 |
| 22 | Kovacevic A. | Wong C. (Q) | 0 : 3 |
| 23 | Duckworth J. (LL) | Boyer T. (WC) | 0 : 3 |
| 24 | Prizmic D. (Q) | Rublev A. (15) | 0 : 3 |
| 25 | Khachanov K. (9) | Basavareddy N. (WC) | 3 : 1 |
| 26 | Dellien H. | Majchrzak K. | 1 : 3 |
| 27 | Riedi L. (Q) | Martinez P. | 3 : 0 |
| 28 | Arnaldi M. | Cerundolo F. (19) | 2 : 3 |
| 29 | Tsitsipas S. (26) | Muller A. | 3 : 1 |
| 30 | Altmaier D. | Medjedovic H. | 3 : 2 |
| 31 | Gaston H. | Mochizuki S. (Q) | 0 : 3 |
| 32 | O'Connell C. | De Minaur A. (8) | 0 : 3 |
| 33 | Djokovic N. (7) | Tien L. | 3 : 0 |
| 34 | Svajda Z. (Q) | Piros Z. (Q) | 3 : 0 |
| 35 | Norrie C. | Korda S. (RET.) | 2 : 0 |
| 36 | Comesana F. | Michelsen A. (28) | 3 : 1 |
| 37 | Tiafoe F. (17) | Nishioka Y. | 3 : 0 |
| 38 | Damm M. (Q) | Blanch Dar. (WC) | 3 : 0 |
| 39 | Struff J-L. (Q) | McDonald M. | 3 : 1 |
| 40 | Van De Zandschulp B. | Rune H. (11) | 0 : 3 |
| 41 | Mensik J. (16) | Jarry N. | 3 : 0 |
| 42 | Blanchet U. (Q) | Marozsan F. | 3 : 1 |
| 43 | Fonseca J. | Kecmanovic M. | 3 : 0 |
| 44 | Nardi L. | Machac T. (21) | 0 : 3 |
| 45 | Nakashima B. (30) | De Jong J. (Q) | 3 : 2 |
| 46 | Kym J. (Q) | Quinn E. | 3 : 1 |
| 47 | Baez S. | Harris L. (Q) | 0 : 3 |
| 48 | Nava E. (WC) | Fritz T. (4) | 0 : 3 |
| 49 | Shelton B. (6) | Buse I. (Q) | 3 : 0 |
| 50 | Carreno-Busta P. | Llamas Ruiz P. (Q) | 3 : 0 |
| 51 | Thompson J. | Moutet C. | 3 : 1 |
| 52 | Mannarino A. | Griekspoor T. (29) | 3 : 0 |
| 53 | Lehecka J. (20) | Coric B. | 3 : 1 |
| 54 | Ugo Carabelli C. | Etcheverry T. M. | 0 : 3 |
| 55 | Galan D. E. (Alt) | Collignon R. | 0 : 3 |
| 56 | Ofner S. | Ruud C. (12) | 0 : 3 |
| 57 | Medvedev D. (13) | Bonzi B. | 2 : 3 |
| 58 | Navone M. | Giron M. | 2 : 3 |
| 59 | Carballes Baena R. | Rinderknech A. | 1 : 3 |
| 60 | Shevchenko A. | Davidovich Fokina A. (18) | 0 : 3 |
| 61 | Darderi L. (32) | Hijikata R. | 3 : 0 |
| 62 | Dostanic S. (WC) | Spizzirri E. (WC) | 0 : 3 |
| 63 | Bellucci M. | Shang J. (RET.) | 2 : 1 |
| 64 | Opelka R. | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
1/32-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Popyrin A. | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Royer V. | Shapovalov D. (27) | 1 : 3 |
| 3 | Bublik A. (23) | Schoolkate T. | 3 : 0 |
| 4 | Borges N. | Paul T. (14) | 2 : 3 |
| 5 | Musetti L. (10) | Goffin D. | 3 : 0 |
| 6 | Brooksby J. | Cobolli F. (24) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Diallo G. (31) | Munar J. | 0 : 3 |
| 8 | Bergs Z. (WO.) | Draper J. (5) | |
| 9 | Zverev A. (3) | Fearnley J. | 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Safiullin R. | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | 0 : 3 |
| 11 | Walton A. | Wong C. | 1 : 3 |
| 12 | Boyer T. | Rublev A. (15) | 1 : 3 |
| 13 | Khachanov K. (9) | Majchrzak K. | 2 : 3 |
| 14 | Riedi L. | Cerundolo F. (19) | 3 : 2 |
| 15 | Tsitsipas S. (26) | Altmaier D. | 2 : 3 |
| 16 | Mochizuki S. | De Minaur A. (8) | 0 : 3 |
| 17 | Djokovic N. (7) | Svajda Z. | 3 : 1 |
| 18 | Norrie C. | Comesana F. | 3 : 1 |
| 19 | Tiafoe F. (17) | Damm M. | 3 : 1 |
| 20 | Struff J-L. | Rune H. (11) | 3 : 2 |
| 21 | Mensik J. (16) | Blanchet U. | 2 : 3 |
| 22 | Fonseca J. | Machac T. (21) | 0 : 3 |
| 23 | Nakashima B. (30) | Kym J. | 2 : 3 |
| 24 | Harris L. | Fritz T. (4) | 1 : 3 |
| 25 | Shelton B. (6) | Carreno-Busta P. | 3 : 0 |
| 26 | Thompson J. | Mannarino A. | 1 : 3 |
| 27 | Lehecka J. (20) | Etcheverry T. M. | 3 : 1 |
| 28 | Collignon R. | Ruud C. (12) | 3 : 2 |
| 29 | Bonzi B. | Giron M. | 3 : 2 |
| 30 | Rinderknech A. | Davidovich Fokina A. (18) | 3 : 2 |
| 31 | Darderi L. (32) | Spizzirri E. | 3 : 1 |
| 32 | Bellucci M. | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
1/16-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Shapovalov D. (27) | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Bublik A. (23) | Paul T. (14) | 3 : 2 |
| 3 | Musetti L. (10) | Cobolli F. (RET.) (24) | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Munar J. | Bergs Z. | 3 : 0 |
| 5 | Zverev A. (3) | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | 1 : 3 |
| 6 | Wong C. | Rublev A. (15) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Majchrzak K. (RET.) | Riedi L. | 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Altmaier D. (RET.) | De Minaur A. (8) | 1 : 2 |
| 9 | Djokovic N. (7) | Norrie C. | 3 : 1 |
| 10 | Tiafoe F. (17) | Struff J-L. | 0 : 3 |
| 11 | Blanchet U. | Machac T. (21) | 0 : 3 |
| 12 | Kym J. | Fritz T. (4) | 1 : 3 |
| 13 | Shelton B. (RET.) (6) | Mannarino A. | 2 : 2 |
| 14 | Lehecka J. (20) | Collignon R. | 3 : 0 |
| 15 | Bonzi B. | Rinderknech A. | 1 : 3 |
| 16 | Darderi L. (32) | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Bublik A. (23) | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Musetti L. (10) | Munar J. | 3 : 0 |
| 3 | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | Rublev A. (15) | 3 : 0 |
| 4 | Riedi L. | De Minaur A. (8) | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Djokovic N. (7) | Struff J-L. | 3 : 0 |
| 6 | Machac T. (21) | Fritz T. (4) | 0 : 3 |
| 7 | Mannarino A. | Lehecka J. (20) | 1 : 3 |
| 8 | Rinderknech A. | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Musetti L. (10) | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | De Minaur A. (8) | 3 : 1 |
| 3 | Djokovic N. (7) | Fritz T. (4) | 3 : 1 |
| 4 | Lehecka J. (20) | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Auger-Aliassime F. (25) | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Djokovic N. (7) | Alcaraz C. (2) | 0 : 3 |
Final| 1 | Sinner J. (1) | Alcaraz C. (2) | 1 : 3 |
