Result
0:2
12/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | beIN Sports 1 |
 Brazil | ESPN 2 |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 1 |
 Czech-republic | Oneplay |
 Germany | Sky Sport Tennis |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 4 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Tennis |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| 1st serve percentage |
|---|
| 58% | 51% |
| 1st serve points won |
|---|
| 58% (31/53) | 66% (25/38) |
| 2nd serve points won |
|---|
| 56% (22/39) | 65% (24/37) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 8/11 | 3/5 |
| 1st return points won |
|---|
| 34% (13/38) | 42% (22/53) |
| 2nd return points won |
|---|
| 35% (13/37) | 44% (17/39) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 2/5 | 3/11 |
| Winners |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Unforced errors |
|---|
| 45 | 38 |
| Net points won |
|---|
| 25% (1/4) | 43% (3/7) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 57% (54/94) | 65% (49/75) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 35% (26/75) | 43% (40/94) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 47% (80/169) | 53% (89/169) |
| Last 10 balls |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Match points saved |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Service games won |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 82% (9/11) |
| Return games won |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 30% (3/10) |
| Total games won |
|---|
| 43% (9/21) | 57% (12/21) |
Chances of winning
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
48.2% | Jannik Sinner
51.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlos Alcaraz Garfia's form might have worsened.Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jannik Sinner's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jannik Sinner than the current prediction. (-1%)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.98 ↑
(1.76) |
|
1.86 ↓
(2.1) |
4.3%
(4.6%) | |
What is the prediction for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). Sinner will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 36.2% – 76.8%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 50%). Sinner (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 2.
- Alcaraz Garfia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Sinner is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:28. (average 1.6:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Jannik Sinner?
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 9 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jannik Sinner won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Jannik Sinner has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner were as follows:
10.01.2026
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
0:2
16.11.2025
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
-
Jannik Sinner
0:2
18.10.2025
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
-
Jannik Sinner
0:2
07.09.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
1:3
18.08.2025
Jannik Sinner
-
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Sinner J. retired
Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Latest results of Jannik Sinner
Draw
Singles - Main1/32-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Bye | |
| 2 | Baez S. | Wawrinka S. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Etcheverry T. M. | Dimitrov G. | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Atmane T. | Quinn E. (LL) | 2 : 0 |
| 5 | Lehecka J. (11) | Nava E. (Q) | 2 : 1 |
| 6 | Fucsovics M. | Tabilo A. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Monfils G. (WC) | Griekspoor T. | 2 : 1 |
| 8 | Bye | Bublik A. (8) | |
| 9 | Musetti L. (4) | Bye | |
| 10 | Vacherot V. | Cerundolo J. M. (Q) | 2 : 1 |
| 11 | Dzumhur D. (LL) | Marozsan F. | 0 : 2 |
| 12 | Hurkacz H. (PR) | Darderi L. (15) | 2 : 1 |
| 13 | Cobolli F. (10) | Comesana F. (Q) | 2 : 1 |
| 14 | Shapovalov D. | Blockx A. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 15 | Norrie C. | Kecmanovic M. | 2 : 1 |
| 16 | Bye | De Minaur A. (5) | |
| 17 | Medvedev D. (7) | Bye | |
| 18 | Bautista-Agut R. (RET.) (LL) | Berrettini M. (WC) | 0 : 0 |
| 19 | Fonseca J. | Diallo G. | 2 : 0 |
| 20 | Rinderknech A. | Khachanov K. (12) | 2 : 0 |
| 21 | Rublev A. (13) | Borges N. | 2 : 1 |
| 22 | Bergs Z. | Mannarino A. | 2 : 0 |
| 23 | Garin C. (Q) | Arnaldi M. (LL) | 2 : 0 |
| 24 | Bye | Zverev A. (3) | |
| 25 | Auger-Aliassime F. (6) | Bye | |
| 26 | Cilic M. | Shevchenko A. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 27 | Moutet C. | Muller A. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 28 | Popyrin A. | Ruud C. (9) | 0 : 2 |
| 29 | Cerundolo F. (16) | Tsitsipas S. | 2 : 0 |
| 30 | Altmaier D. | Machac T. | 1 : 2 |
| 31 | Kouame M. (WC) | Humbert U. | 0 : 2 |
| 32 | Bye | Sinner J. (2) | |
1/16-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Baez S. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Etcheverry T. M. | Atmane T. | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Lehecka J. (11) | Tabilo A. | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Monfils G. | Bublik A. (8) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Musetti L. (4) | Vacherot V. | 0 : 2 |
| 6 | Marozsan F. | Hurkacz H. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Cobolli F. (10) | Blockx A. | 0 : 2 |
| 8 | Norrie C. | De Minaur A. (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 9 | Medvedev D. (7) | Berrettini M. | 0 : 2 |
| 10 | Fonseca J. | Rinderknech A. | 2 : 1 |
| 11 | Rublev A. (13) | Bergs Z. | 0 : 2 |
| 12 | Garin C. | Zverev A. (3) | 1 : 2 |
| 13 | Auger-Aliassime F. (6) | Cilic M. | 2 : 0 |
| 14 | Moutet C. | Ruud C. (9) | 0 : 2 |
| 15 | Cerundolo F. (16) | Machac T. | 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Humbert U. | Sinner J. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Etcheverry T. M. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Lehecka J. (11) | Bublik A. (8) | 0 : 2 |
| 3 | Vacherot V. | Hurkacz H. | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Blockx A. | De Minaur A. (5) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Berrettini M. | Fonseca J. | 0 : 2 |
| 6 | Bergs Z. | Zverev A. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Auger-Aliassime F. (6) | Ruud C. (RET.) (9) | 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Machac T. | Sinner J. (2) | 1 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Bublik A. (8) | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Vacherot V. | De Minaur A. (5) | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Fonseca J. | Zverev A. (3) | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Auger-Aliassime F. (6) | Sinner J. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Vacherot V. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Zverev A. (3) | Sinner J. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Final| 1 | Alcaraz C. (1) | Sinner J. (2) | 0 : 2 |
