Result
1:2
05/04/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Super League Women
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Peacock TV Premium, Peacock |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 2.04 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (279/380) | 78% (322/415) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 2.04 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.98 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (279/380) | 78% (322/415) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 23% (17/73) | 41% (26/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (52/102) | 62% (69/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (7/23) | 69% (9/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 1.84 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 33 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 84% (16/19) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.98 | 0.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.02 | -0.69 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 19', Haugen V. 🟨,
- 29', 0 - 1, Aguilera J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 45+2', 0 - 2, Nabet L. ⚽, Lussi T. (A),
- 45+4', Lussi T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Gabby Provenzano ↓, Heilferty A. ↑,
- 46', Haugen V. ↓, Hendrix B. ↑,
- 50', Hendrix B. 🟨,
- 57', Pokorny M. ↓, Giammona C. ↑,
- 73', Listro J. ↓, Parsons M. ↑,
- 73', Gaillard S. ↓, Parsons P. ↑,
- 74', Nabet L. ↓, Porter T. ↑,
- 82', Corbin M. ↓, Morris E. ↑,
- 82', Porter T. 🟨,
- 85', Groom S. ↓, Cook A. ↑,
- 85', Lussi T. ↓, Baisden R. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 2, Parsons M. ⚽,
- 90', Nasello S. 🟨,
- 90', Cook A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tampa Bay Sun
34.7% | Draw
27.9% | Carolina Ascent
37.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tampa Bay Sun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)Carolina Ascent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Sun than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carolina Ascent than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Tampa Bay Sun - Carolina Ascent Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.66 ↑
(2.64) |
3.3 ↑
(3.26) |
2.46 ↑
(2.45) |
8.6%
(9.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.
- Recent performances by Tampa Bay have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Carolina is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Tampa Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Tampa Bay Sun won against Carolina Ascent?
Tampa Bay Sun has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Carolina Ascent won against Tampa Bay Sun?
Carolina Ascent has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Sun - Carolina Ascent were as follows:
13.03.2026
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
1:0
06.09.2025
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
2:2
17.05.2025
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
1:1
15.03.2025
Tampa Bay Sun
-
Carolina Ascent
1:0
16.11.2024
Tampa Bay Sun
-
Carolina Ascent
2:1
Latest results of Tampa Bay Sun
Latest results of Carolina Ascent
USL Super League Women Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sporting Jax W | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 48:24 | 24 | 47 |
| 2 | Lexington W | 23 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 40:22 | 18 | 40 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 30:25 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 28:37 | -9 | 32 |
| 5 | DC Power W | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 29:29 | 0 | 29 |
| 6 | Spokane Zephyr W | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 24:26 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 28:34 | -6 | 25 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale W | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28:46 | -18 | 23 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 24:36 | -12 | 21 |
Promotion ~ USL Super League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
