Result
1:2
25/04/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Super League Women
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 France | beIN Sports 1 |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Peacock TV Premium, Peacock |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.72 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (281/389) | 77% (344/444) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.72 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 7 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (281/389) | 77% (344/444) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 18% (11/61) | 41% (31/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 49% (35/71) | 55% (72/130) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (1/10) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 0.94 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 38 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 87% (20/23) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.62 | 0.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | -0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 41', Groom S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Webber F. ↓, Shimkin J. ↑,
- 52', Corbin M. 🟨,
- 60', Nabet L. ↓, Morris E. ↑,
- 61', Corbin M. ↓, Porter T. ↑,
- 61', Morris E. 🟨,
- 61', McNeill S. ↓, Connors S. ↑,
- 66', Groom S. ↓, Cook A. ↑,
- 70', Haugen V. ↓, Gabby Provenzano ↑,
- 70', Heilferty A. ↓, Bryan S. ↑,
- 80', Parker R. ↓, Lussi T. ↑,
- 80', Harding A. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
- 82', Connors S. 🟨,
- 84', Bryan S. 🟨,
- 84', 0 - 1, Butler J. ⚽, Aguilera J. (A),
- 87', 1 - 1, Connors S. ⚽, Shimkin J. (A),
- 90+1', Giammona C. ↓, Pokorny M. ↑,
- 90+5', Beardsley E. 🟨,
- 90+6', 1 - 2, Aguilera J. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Tampa Bay Sun
29.1% | Draw
28.6% | Carolina Ascent
42.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tampa Bay Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)Carolina Ascent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Sun than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carolina Ascent than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
Tampa Bay Sun - Carolina Ascent Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.12 ↑
(2.82) |
3.18 ↑
(3.1) |
2.15 ↓
(2.36) |
10.1%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- Carolina is Qualified for USL Super League Women (Play Offs Semi~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 1.
- Tampa Bay has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Carolina is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Carolina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Tampa Bay Sun won against Carolina Ascent?
Tampa Bay Sun has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Carolina Ascent won against Tampa Bay Sun?
Carolina Ascent has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Sun - Carolina Ascent were as follows:
05.04.2026
Tampa Bay Sun
-
Carolina Ascent
1:2
13.03.2026
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
1:0
06.09.2025
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
2:2
17.05.2025
Carolina Ascent
-
Tampa Bay Sun
1:1
15.03.2025
Tampa Bay Sun
-
Carolina Ascent
1:0
Latest results of Tampa Bay Sun
Latest results of Carolina Ascent
USL Super League Women Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lexington W ✔ | 26 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 46:23 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Sporting Jax W ✔ | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 50:28 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Carolina Ascent W ✔ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 33:26 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30:40 | -10 | 34 |
| 5 | DC Power W | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 34:30 | 4 | 33 |
| 6 | Spokane Zephyr W | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 29:28 | 1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 29:35 | -6 | 26 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 27:43 | -16 | 24 |
| 9 | Fort Lauderdale W | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30:55 | -25 | 23 |
Promotion ~ USL Super League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Lexington W is Qualified for USL Super League Women (Play Offs Semi~finals)
Sporting Jax W is Qualified for USL Super League Women (Play Offs Semi~finals)
Carolina Ascent W is Qualified for USL Super League Women (Play Offs Semi~finals)
