Result
3:2
14/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 1.23 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 31% | 69% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (150/222) | 85% (426/502) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 1.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 21 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (150/222) | 85% (426/502) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (22/54) | 45% (28/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (45/82) | 64% (75/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (4/14) | 17% (4/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.56 | -1.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 2)
- 6', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 10', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 11', 0 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
- 21', 1 - 1, Brito R. ⚽, Conte A. (A),
- 25', 2 - 1, Cassiano ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
- 37', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
- 37', 2 - 2, Conte A. (Own goal),
- 45', 3 - 2, Cassiano (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 53', Osundina K. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
- 56', Kaly 🟨,
- 67', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 67', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 73', Cassiano 🟨,
- 79', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
- 83', Marques J. 🟨,
- 84', Cassiano ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
- 84', Brito R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 84', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
- 84', van Ee E. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 84', Kuipers B. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 90+3', Livolant J. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
31.9% | Draw
30.1% | Arouca
38.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
Casa Pia - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.98 ↑
(2.74) |
3.13 ↑
(3.05) |
2.5 ↓
(2.69) |
5.6%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 25.1% – 83.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 4.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Arouca?
Casa Pia has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Casa Pia?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Arouca were as follows:
14.09.2025
Arouca
-
Casa Pia
0:2
04.05.2025
Arouca
-
Casa Pia
0:0
20.12.2024
Casa Pia
-
Arouca
3:1
18.02.2024
Casa Pia
-
Arouca
1:0
17.09.2023
Arouca
-
Casa Pia
0:1
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
