Result
1:1
20/09/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 1.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (193/257) | 86% (475/554) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 1.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.28 | 1.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (193/257) | 86% (475/554) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (19/40) | 57% (29/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (55/71) | 76% (115/152) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/15) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.44 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.83 | 2.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+3', Lourenco (Pen),
- 45+3', 1 - 0, Lourenco ⚽,
- 45+6', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Michel Araujo ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 56', 1 - 1, Willian Jose ⚽,
- 59', Aylon 🟨,
- 63', Lourenco ↓, Vina ↑,
- 63', Aylon ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
- 67', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 67', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rezende ↑,
- 67', Fernando Sobral ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
- 75', Willian Jose ↓, Tiago ↑,
- 78', Tiago 🟨,
- 84', Paulo Baya ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
- 84', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
- 86', Fernandinho 🟨,
- 90', Sanabria M. ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
Chances of winning
Ceará
35.6% | Draw
31.7% | Bahia
32.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Ceará - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.69 ↓
(2.77) |
2.97 ↓
(3.03) |
2.9 ↑
(2.66) |
5.4%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ceará - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 3 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 3 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Ceará (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 4 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 4 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Ceará: Fabiano
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Mugni
(Inactive)
Lucca
(Inactive)
Luiz Otavio
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Araujo
(Inactive)
Richardson
(Yellow Cards)
Rodriguinho
(Red Card)
Vinicius Zanocelo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Inactive)
Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
David Duarte
(Yellow Cards)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
Tiago
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Sanabria M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Bahia?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Ceará?
Bahia has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ceará - Bahia were as follows:
20.08.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
1:0
21.04.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
1:0
26.03.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
3:2
06.03.2024
Ceará
-
Bahia
1:2
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
