Result
1:1
20/09/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.15 | 1.21 |
Ball Possession |
---|
32% | 68% |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 5 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
3 | 6 |
Passes |
---|
75% (193/257) | 86% (475/554) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.15 | 1.21 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
2.28 | 1.83 |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 5 |
Shots off target |
---|
9 | 8 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
1 | 1 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 9 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 5 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
3 | 6 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
13 | 27 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 3 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
75% (193/257) | 86% (475/554) |
Long passes |
---|
48% (19/40) | 57% (29/51) |
Passes in final third |
---|
77% (55/71) | 76% (115/152) |
Crosses |
---|
13% (2/15) | 20% (3/15) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.42 | 1.44 |
Throw-ins |
---|
13 | 22 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 11 |
Tackles |
---|
50% (8/16) | 50% (4/8) |
Duels won |
---|
46 | 46 |
Clearances |
---|
23 | 19 |
Interceptions |
---|
12 | 2 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 3 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.83 | 2.28 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.83 | 1.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+3', Lourenco (Pen),
- 45+3', 1 - 0, Lourenco ⚽,
- 45+6', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Michel Araujo ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 56', 1 - 1, Willian Jose ⚽,
- 59', Aylon 🟨,
- 63', Lourenco ↓, Vina ↑,
- 63', Aylon ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
- 67', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 67', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rezende ↑,
- 67', Fernando Sobral ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
- 75', Willian Jose ↓, Tiago ↑,
- 78', Tiago 🟨,
- 84', Paulo Baya ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
- 84', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
- 86', Fernandinho 🟨,
- 90', Sanabria M. ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
Chances of winning
Ceará 35.6% | Draw 31.7% | Bahia 32.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Ceará - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.69 ↓ (2.77) |
2.97 ↓ (3.03) |
2.9 ↑ (2.66) |
5.4% (6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ceará - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Ceará: Fabiano
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Mugni
(Inactive)
Lucca
(Inactive)
Luiz Otavio
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Araujo
(Inactive)
Richardson
(Yellow Cards)
Rodriguinho
(Red Card)
Vinicius Zanocelo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Inactive)
Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
David Duarte
(Yellow Cards)
Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
Tiago
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Sanabria M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Bahia?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Ceará?
Bahia has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ceará - Bahia were as follows:
20.08.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
1:0
21.04.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
1:0
26.03.2025
Bahia
-
Ceará
3:2
06.03.2024
Ceará
-
Bahia
1:2
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
9 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:38 | -5 | 36 |
10 | Gremio | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 33 |
11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet