Result
2:1
10/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 19
- Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 2, MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.37 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (414/486) | 77% (233/302) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.37 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.24 | 0.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (414/486) | 77% (233/302) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (32/57) | 40% (17/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (91/134) | 67% (36/54) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.43 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (18/26) | 61% (14/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 49 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.74 | 2.24 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | 0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 25', Richardson 🟨,
- 38', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
- 43', Moreno A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', 0 - 1, Lourenco ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
- 57', Torres F. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 57', Sosa R. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 1, Lopez J. (Pen),
- 68', Lucas Mugni ↓, Nicolas ↑,
- 68', Lourenco ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
- 69', 2 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 76', Richardson ↓, Aylon ↑,
- 84', Moreno A. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 84', Richard 🟨,
- 85', Vitor Roque ↓, Allan ↑,
- 86', Fabiano ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
- 87', Matheus Bahia ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
- 90', Mauricio ↓, Khellven ↑,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
67.3% | Draw
21.8% | Ceará
10.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Palmeiras - Ceará Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.41 ↑
(1.4) |
4.33 ↓
(4.5) |
8.6 ↑
(8.17) |
5.6%
(6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Ceará?
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 13.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 30.1% – 66.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
- Recent performances by Palmeiras have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Ceará has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs
(Hamstring Injury)
Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Ceará: Luiz Otavio
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Murilo
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda
(Inactive)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:18. (average 1.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:6. (average 2.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Ceará?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Palmeiras?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Ceará were as follows:
22.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
Ceará
3:0
30.04.2025
Ceará
-
Palmeiras
0:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 45:10 | 35 | 47 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 35:15 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 43 |
| 4 | Bahia | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28:22 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 30:13 | 17 | 35 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 35:20 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 26:23 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 27:32 | -5 | 30 |
| 9 | Fluminense | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:28 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | Internacional | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25:29 | -4 | 27 |
| 11 | Ceara | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 19:20 | -1 | 26 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 20:26 | -6 | 25 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 20:24 | -4 | 24 |
| 15 | Vasco | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 30:31 | -1 | 22 |
| 16 | Santos | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 20:31 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 22 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 19:32 | -13 | 22 |
| 18 | Juventude | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 19:41 | -22 | 21 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 20:34 | -14 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 14:33 | -19 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
