Result
1:3
07/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 38
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.12 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (280/332) | 90% (406/452) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.12 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 3.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (280/332) | 90% (406/452) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 73% (22/30) | 71% (37/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (94/127) | 85% (85/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (10/25) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.08 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 47% (7/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.03 | 1.99 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.03 | 0.99 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 12', 1 - 0, Pedro Raul ⚽, Willian Machado (A),
- 17', 1 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Bruno Fuchs (A),
- 35', Larson 🟨,
- 45+2', Fernandinho 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Diego ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
- 59', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 2, Sosa R. ⚽,
- 62', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
- 62', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
- 65', 1 - 3, Lopez J. ⚽,
- 68', Torres F. ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 68', Larson ↓, Allan ↑,
- 73', Lopez J. ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
- 78', Mauricio ↓, Erick Bele ↑,
- 78', Moreno A. ↓, Luis Felipe ↑,
- 79', Galeano A. ↓, Lourenco ↑,
- 79', Willian Machado 🟨,
- 86', Luis Felipe 🟨,
Chances of winning
Ceará
43.1% | Draw
29.4% | Palmeiras
27.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceará's performance.Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-10.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+10.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ceará - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.21 ↓
(2.85) |
3.2 ↑
(3.15) |
3.43 ↑
(2.56) |
5.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Ceará - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 48.7% – 87.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ceará will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- Palmeiras is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.
- Ceará has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Ceará might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista
(Hamstring Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Piquerez J.
(Red Card)
Raphael Veiga
(Yellow Cards)
Weverton
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in Ceará: Pedro Henrique
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1.1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against Palmeiras?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Ceará?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ceará - Palmeiras were as follows:
10.08.2025
Palmeiras
-
Ceará
2:1
22.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
Ceará
3:0
30.04.2025
Ceará
-
Palmeiras
0:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Atletico-MG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 19 | Vasco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
