Ceará vs Vasco da Gama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Ceará - Vasco da Gama
Result
2:1
15/04/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 4
  • Referee: Serafim D. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.141.14
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
23
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
12
Passes
81% (271/335)89% (550/618)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
2.141.14
xG on target (xGOT)
1.900.48
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
23
Shots off target
76
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
78
Shots outside the Box
43
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
12
Touches in opposition box
1615
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
1214
Passes
81% (271/335)89% (550/618)
Long passes
44% (20/45)54% (25/46)
Passes in final third
74% (66/89)81% (123/152)
Crosses
41% (9/22)32% (8/25)
Expected assists (xA)
1.311.03
Fouls
1412
Tackles
53% (8/15)53% (8/15)
Duels won
4548
Clearances Total
2524
Interceptions
84
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
20
xGOT faced
0.481.90
Goals prevented
-0.52-0.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 4', Paulinho Paula 🟨,
  • 10', Fabiano 🟨,
  • 29', 1 - 0, Pedro Raul , Lucas Mugni (A),
  • 31', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
  • 34', Hugo Moura 🟨,
  • 38', Galeano A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Paulinho Paula , Jair ,
  • 46', Garre B. , Adson ,
  • 46', Moreira N. , Rayan ,
  • 57', Payet D. , Alex Teixeira ,
  • 62', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
  • 62', Vegetti P. 🟨,
  • 64', Bruno Ferreira , Fernando Miguel ,
  • 71', Aylon , Guilherme Luiz ,
  • 71', Lucas Mugni , Matheus Araujo ,
  • 71', Leo Conde 🟨,
  • 81', 2 - 0, Pedro Raul , Guilherme Luiz (A),
  • 89', Pedro Raul , Romulo ,
  • 89', Diego , Lourenco ,
  • 90+3', 2 - 1, Vegetti P. , Rayan (A),
  • 90+4', Lucas Freitas , Jean David ,

Chances of winning


Ceará
42.9%
Draw
29.8%
Vasco da Gama
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.4% 29.3% 31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7% 29.8% 31.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
  • Ceará - Vasco da Gama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.21
    (2.39)
    3.19
    (3.22)
    3.47
    (3.01)
    5.5%
    (6.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Ceará - Vasco da Gama?
  • Users Predictions: Ceará will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.03%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ceará will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1.
    • Recent matches Ceará is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Vasco is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Vasco could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Ceará will have a mini benefit in this match.
    • There will not play in Ceará: Bruno Tubarao (Thigh Injury) Fernandinho (Injury) Lucas Mugni (Inactive) Matheus Bahia (Inactive) Pedro Henrique (Knee Injury) Richardson (Heel Injury)
    • There will not play in Vasco: David (Knee Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Knee Injury) Lemos M. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • Last 10 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:11 (average 0.9:1.1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 0.6:0.8).
    Latest results of Ceará
    12.04.2025 Juventude - Ceará 2:1
    05.04.2025 Ceará - Grêmio 2:0
    26.03.2025 Bahia - Ceará 3:2
    22.03.2025 Ceará - Fortaleza 1:1
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ15103229:62333
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1683519:17227
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Internacional1555516:19-320
    11Corinthians1655615:19-420
    12Sao Paulo1647515:18-319
    13Ceara1553714:15-118
    14Gremio1445514:20-617
    15Vitoria1637613:17-416
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1542913:19-614
    18Juventude1432910:29-1911
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1404107:23-164

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