Result
2:4
14/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals
- Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Slovenia | Sport TV1 |
 Switzerland | RSI La 2 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1, Sport 3 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 2.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (355/401) | 86% (304/354) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 2.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 3.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (355/401) | 86% (304/354) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (33/49) | 62% (29/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (93/121) | 72% (69/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 35% (6/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 1.07 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (4/7) | 76% (13/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.74 | 0.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | -1.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
- 22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 46', Kelvin D. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
- 55', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
- 58', Steffen R. 🟨,
- 59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
- 62', Grgic A. 🟨,
- 65', Belhadj M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 65', Pihlstrom E. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
- 70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ⚽,
- 71', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
- 71', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
- 74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
- 78', Iosifov N. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
- 78', Sturm D. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
- 78', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 82', Kvesic M. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Celje
40% | Draw
26.9% | Lugano
33.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celje's form might have worsened.Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+9.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Celje - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.32 ↑
(1.94) |
3.52 ↓
(3.65) |
2.91 ↓
(3.41) |
6%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Celje - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6% – 78.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.
- Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Celje could have a small edge in this match.
- We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Celje won against Lugano?
Celje has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Celje?
Lugano has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Celje - Lugano were as follows:
07.08.2025
Lugano
-
Celje
0:5
13.03.2025
Lugano
-
Celje
5:5
06.03.2025
Celje
-
Lugano
1:0
UEFA Europa Conference League Table
League phase | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Zrinjski | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Lausanne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Celje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Rakow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mainz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Samsunspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Noah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Drita | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Hacken | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Shelbourne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Aberdeen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Rijeka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Omonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Legia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Hamrun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Sigma Olomouc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Dyn. Kyiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Shkendija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Univ. Craiova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | SK Rapid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Shamrock Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Breidablik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Lincoln Red Imps | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:5 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)
