Result
2:4
14/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals
- Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Slovenia | Sport TV1 |
Switzerland | RSI La 2 |
Ukraine | Sport 1, Sport 3 |
World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.45 | 2.83 |
Ball Possession |
---|
53% | 47% |
Total shots |
---|
22 | 15 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 6 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
89% (355/401) | 86% (304/354) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.45 | 2.83 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.91 | 3.74 |
Total shots |
---|
22 | 15 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 6 |
Shots off target |
---|
9 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
8 | 7 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
13 | 10 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
9 | 5 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
31 | 23 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
14 | 17 |
Passes |
---|
89% (355/401) | 86% (304/354) |
Long passes |
---|
67% (33/49) | 62% (29/47) |
Passes in final third |
---|
77% (93/121) | 72% (69/96) |
Crosses |
---|
20% (3/15) | 35% (6/17) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.86 | 1.07 |
Throw-ins |
---|
13 | 9 |
Fouls |
---|
17 | 14 |
Tackles |
---|
57% (4/7) | 76% (13/17) |
Duels won |
---|
33 | 47 |
Clearances |
---|
11 | 16 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 4 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
3.74 | 0.91 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.26 | -1.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
- 22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 46', Kelvin D. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
- 55', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
- 58', Steffen R. 🟨,
- 59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
- 62', Grgic A. 🟨,
- 65', Belhadj M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 65', Pihlstrom E. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
- 70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ⚽,
- 71', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
- 71', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
- 74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
- 78', Iosifov N. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
- 78', Sturm D. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
- 78', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 82', Kvesic M. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Celje 40% | Draw 26.9% | Lugano 33.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celje's form might have worsened.Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+9.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Celje - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.32 ↑ (1.94) |
3.52 ↓ (3.65) |
2.91 ↓ (3.41) |
6% (8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Celje - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6% – 78.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.
- Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Celje could have a small edge in this match.
- We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Celje won against Lugano?
Celje has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Celje?
Lugano has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Celje - Lugano were as follows:
07.08.2025
Lugano
-
Celje
0:5
13.03.2025
Lugano
-
Celje
5:5
06.03.2025
Celje
-
Lugano
1:0
UEFA Europa Conference League Table
League phase | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Zrinjski | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 3 |
2 | AEK Larnaca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 3 |
3 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
4 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
5 | Lausanne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
6 | Celje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 3 |
7 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
9 | Fiorentina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
10 | Rakow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
12 | Strasbourg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
13 | Mainz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
14 | Samsunspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
15 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
16 | Noah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
17 | Drita | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
18 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
19 | Hacken | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
20 | Shelbourne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
21 | Aberdeen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 0 |
22 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
23 | Rijeka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
24 | Omonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
25 | Legia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
26 | Hamrun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
27 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 0 |
28 | Sigma Olomouc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
29 | Dyn. Kyiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
30 | Shkendija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
31 | Univ. Craiova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
32 | SK Rapid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
33 | Shamrock Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
34 | Breidablik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
35 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
36 | Lincoln Red Imps | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:5 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)