Celje vs Lugano – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Z'dezele (Celje).

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals
Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Sport TV1
Switzerland	RSI La 2
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.45	2.83
Ball Possession
53%	47%
Total shots
22	15
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
2	2
Passes
89% (355/401)	86% (304/354)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45	2.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.91	3.74
Total shots
22	15
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
9	2
Blocked Shots
8	7
Shots inside the Box
13	10
Shots outside the Box
9	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
2	2
Touches in opposition box
31	23
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
14	17
Passes
89% (355/401)	86% (304/354)
Long passes
67% (33/49)	62% (29/47)
Passes in final third
77% (93/121)	72% (69/96)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	35% (6/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.86	1.07
Throw-ins
13	9
Fouls
17	14
Tackles
57% (4/7)	76% (13/17)
Duels won
33	47
Clearances
11	16
Interceptions
7	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
3.74	0.91
Goals prevented
-0.26	-1.09

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Kelvin D. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
55', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
58', Steffen R. 🟨,
59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
62', Grgic A. 🟨,
65', Belhadj M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
65', Pihlstrom E. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ⚽,
71', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
71', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
78', Iosifov N. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
78', Sturm D. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
78', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
82', Kvesic M. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),

Chances of winning

Celje
40%

Draw
26.9%

Lugano
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

25.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

24.5%

26.2%

Celje - Lugano Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.94)	3.52 ↓ (3.65)	2.91 ↓ (3.41)	6% (8.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Celje - Lugano?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6% – 78.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Celje (votes: 1 - 25%). Lugano (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Celje (1.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lugano (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lugano (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Celje (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Lugano (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.
Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Celje could have a small edge in this match.
We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).
Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Celje won against Lugano?

Celje has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Celje?

Lugano has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Celje - Lugano were as follows:

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5

13.03.2025 Lugano - Celje 5:5

06.03.2025 Celje - Lugano 1:0

Latest results of Celje

10.08.2025 Celje - Mura 3:0 ✺

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5 ✺

03.08.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje 0:5 ✺

31.07.2025 AEK Larnaca - Celje 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 Celje - Radomlje 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Lugano

10.08.2025 Lugano - Basel 3:1 ✺

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5 ✺

03.08.2025 Sion - Lugano 4:0 ✺

31.07.2025 CFR Cluj - Lugano 1:0 ✺

27.07.2025 Lugano - Thun 1:2 ✺

UEFA Europa Conference League Table

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	5	1	0	11:5	6	16
2	Rakow	6	4	2	0	9:2	7	14
3	AEK Athens	6	4	1	1	14:7	7	13
4	Sparta Prague	6	4	1	1	10:3	7	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	4	1	1	13:7	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	4	1	1	10:5	5	13
7	Mainz	6	4	1	1	7:3	4	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	3	3	0	7:1	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	3	2	1	6:3	3	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	11:6	5	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	3	1	2	12:8	4	10
12	Samsunspor	6	3	1	2	10:6	4	10
13	Celje	6	3	1	2	8:7	1	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	1	2	7:7	0	10
15	Fiorentina	6	3	0	3	8:5	3	9
16	Rijeka	6	2	3	1	5:2	3	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	2	3	1	5:4	1	9
18	Omonia	6	2	2	2	5:4	1	8
19	Noah	6	2	2	2	6:7	-1	8
20	Drita	6	2	2	2	4:8	-4	8
21	KuPS	6	1	4	1	6:5	1	7
22	Shkendija	6	2	1	3	4:5	-1	7
23	Zrinjski	6	2	1	3	8:10	-2	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	2	1	3	7:9	-2	7
25	Univ. Craiova	6	2	1	3	6:8	-2	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps	6	2	1	3	7:15	-8	7
27	Dyn. Kyiv	6	2	0	4	9:9	0	6
28	Legia	6	2	0	4	8:8	0	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	2	0	4	5:9	-4	6
30	Breidablik	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	1	1	4	7:13	-6	4
32	Hacken	6	0	3	3	5:8	-3	3
33	Hamrun	6	1	0	5	4:11	-7	3
34	Shelbourne	6	0	2	4	0:7	-7	2
35	Aberdeen	6	0	2	4	3:14	-11	2
36	SK Rapid	6	0	1	5	3:14	-11	1

Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)