Result
3:3
19/07/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Australia | Optus Sport |
China | K-Ball |
India | FanCode, FanCode |
Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.26 | 1.83 |
Ball Possession |
---|
41% | 59% |
Total shots |
---|
14 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 7 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 7 |
Passes |
---|
79% (299/378) | 85% (446/524) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
0 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.26 | 1.83 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
2.99 | 2.69 |
Total shots |
---|
14 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 7 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 7 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
4 | 8 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 14 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 7 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
25 | 39 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 3 |
Offsides |
---|
4 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
79% (299/378) | 85% (446/524) |
Long passes |
---|
50% (26/52) | 50% (33/66) |
Passes in final third |
---|
69% (100/145) | 78% (145/187) |
Crosses |
---|
14% (2/14) | 26% (7/27) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.97 | 1.81 |
Throw-ins |
---|
21 | 24 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 11 |
Tackles |
---|
64% (9/14) | 62% (8/13) |
Duels won |
---|
44 | 47 |
Clearances |
---|
38 | 18 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 8 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
1 | 1 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
2.69 | 2.99 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.31 | -0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Fernandes L. ⚽, Rafael Ratao (A),
- 14', 1 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽, Onose K. (A),
- 42', 2 - 1, Hiraoka T. ⚽, Suzuki A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 47', 2 - 2, Rafael Ratao ⚽,
- 52', Nishio R. 🟨,
- 67', Okuno K. ↓, Matsumoto H. ↑,
- 71', Cools D. ↓, Nakamura T. ↑,
- 73', 2 - 3, Thiago Andrade ⚽, Kagawa S. (A),
- 74', Hiraoka T. ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
- 75', Suzuki A. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
- 75', Onose K. ↓, Ikeda M. ↑,
- 79', Ota S. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
- 82', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
- 82', Rafael Ratao ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
- 89', 3 - 3, Luiz Phellype (Pen),
- 90', Kagawa S. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Shonan Bellmare 25.9% | Draw 25.7% | Cerezo Osaka 48.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shonan Bellmare's form might have worsened.Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerezo Osaka's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shonan Bellmare, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.6 ↑ (2.77) |
3.66 ↑ (3.51) |
1.98 ↓ (2.28) |
5.5% (8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka?
Users Predictions:
Cerezo Osaka will win
(20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 3.
- Shonan Bellmare has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Cerezo Osaka is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- Cerezo Osaka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Matsumoto K.
(Inactive)
Nagai T.
(Calf Injury)
Tamura S.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y.
(Knee Injury)
Uejo S.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Takahashi N.
(Injury)
Ze Ricardo
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Takahashi N.
(Foot Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.7:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Shonan Bellmare won against Cerezo Osaka?
Shonan Bellmare has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Shonan Bellmare?
Cerezo Osaka has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:
22.02.2025
Cerezo Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
1:2
22.09.2024
Shonan Bellmare
-
Cerezo Osaka
1:2
30.03.2024
Cerezo Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
2:0
30.09.2023
Cerezo Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
0:2
02.08.2023
Cerezo Osaka
-
Shonan Bellmare
1:2
Latest results of Shonan Bellmare
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Vissel Kobe | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 34:22 | 12 | 46 |
2 | Kashima Antlers | 24 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 36:24 | 12 | 44 |
3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 33:23 | 10 | 44 |
4 | Kyoto | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 40:29 | 11 | 42 |
5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 29:18 | 11 | 42 |
6 | Machida | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 34:25 | 9 | 40 |
7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38:26 | 12 | 38 |
8 | Urawa Reds | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 32:24 | 8 | 38 |
9 | Cerezo Osaka | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 37:33 | 4 | 34 |
10 | Gamba Osaka | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 29:31 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 21:23 | -2 | 32 |
12 | Okayama | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 20:22 | -2 | 30 |
13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:32 | -3 | 30 |
14 | FC Tokyo | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27:34 | -7 | 29 |
15 | Nagoya Grampus | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 28 |
16 | Verdy | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 15:24 | -9 | 28 |
17 | Shonan Bellmare | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 20:37 | -17 | 24 |
18 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23:32 | -9 | 21 |
19 | Yokohama FC | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 14:30 | -16 | 19 |
20 | Albirex Niigata | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 24:41 | -17 | 19 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League