Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS Cincinnati - Chicago Fire
Result
2:1
05/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
xG on target (xGOT)
1.330.62
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
710
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Touches in opposition box
1321
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
138
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Long passes
65% (34/52)63% (31/49)
Passes in final third
74% (56/76)80% (135/169)
Crosses
0% (0/7)13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.290.75
Throw-ins
1316
Fouls
813
Tackles
47% (8/17)57% (12/21)
Duels won
5142
Clearances
3611
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
0.621.33
Goals prevented
-0.38-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Evander , Orellano L. (A),
  • 45+2', Engel L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 50', 2 - 0, Denkey K. , Evander (A), Kamara K. (A2)
  • 53', Kamara K. 🟨,
  • 55', 2 - 1, Zinckernagel P. , Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
  • 68', Kamara K. , Valenzuela G. ,
  • 73', Orellano L. , Smith B. ,
  • 73', Barroso L. , Dean J. ,
  • 73', Gutierrez B. , Haile-Selassie M. ,
  • 76', Bamba J. 🟨,
  • 83', Oregel S. , Barlow T. ,
  • 83', Bamba J. , Glasgow O. ,
  • 90', Evander , Hadebe T. ,
  • 90', Denkey K. , Baird C. ,
  • 90+4', Zinckernagel P. , Williams S. ,
  • 90+7', Elliott J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
50.3%
Draw
22.7%
Chicago Fire
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.3% 21% 20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 20.2% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.
  • Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Cincinnati - Chicago Fire Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.64)
    4.17
    (4.54)
    3.54
    (4.61)
    5.5%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 49.9%90.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
    • Cincinnati is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Cincinnati might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Hagglund N. (Ribs Injury) Kubo Y. (Ankle Injury) Nwobodo O. (Injury) Orellano L. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Chicago: Brady C. (International duty) Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Poreba D. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cincinnati: Sergio Santos (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Chicago: Gasper C. (Injury) Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Reynolds J. (Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Chicago Fire were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 2:3
    17.07.2024 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 0:1
    02.03.2024 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 1:2
    03.06.2023 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 1:0
    18.03.2023 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 3:3
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    Latest results of Chicago Fire
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC ✔ 33186960:411960
    2Minnesota United ✔ 331610755:371858
    3Vancouver Whitecaps ✔ 31169659:342557
    4Los Angeles FC ✔ 30158760:372353
    5Seattle Sounders321310955:47849
    6Austin FC321281235:43-844
    7Portland Timbers3311111141:44-344
    8FC Dallas3210111149:52-341
    9Real Salt Lake321241636:46-1040
    10Colorado Rapids331171542:54-1240
    11San Jose Earthquakes321081457:58-138
    12Houston Dynamo33991543:56-1336
    13St. Louis City33871842:56-1431
    14Sporting Kansas City33762046:70-2427
    15Los Angeles Galaxy32591842:64-2224


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union ✔ 33206757:332466
    2FC Cincinnati ✔ 33195949:40962
    3Inter Miami ✔ 32178772:531959
    4Charlotte ✔ 331821353:46756
    5New York City ✔ 331751149:42756
    6Nashville SC331661156:401654
    7Orlando City321411760:451553
    8Chicago Fire331571166:58852
    9Columbus Crew331312852:50251
    10New York Red Bulls331271447:44343
    11New England Revolution33981642:49-735
    12Toronto FC325141333:40-729
    13CF Montreal336101734:57-2328
    14Atlanta Utd315121437:57-2027
    15DC United335101829:65-3625

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    San Diego FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Minnesota United is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Vancouver Whitecaps is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Los Angeles FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    FC Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Inter Miami is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Charlotte is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New York City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)