Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS Cincinnati - Chicago Fire
Result
2:1
05/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
xG on target (xGOT)
1.330.62
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
710
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Touches in opposition box
1321
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
138
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Long passes
65% (34/52)63% (31/49)
Passes in final third
74% (56/76)80% (135/169)
Crosses
0% (0/7)13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.290.75
Throw-ins
1316
Fouls
813
Tackles
47% (8/17)57% (12/21)
Duels won
5142
Clearances
3611
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
0.621.33
Goals prevented
-0.38-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Evander , Orellano L. (A),
  • 45+2', Engel L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 50', 2 - 0, Denkey K. , Evander (A), Kamara K. (A2)
  • 53', Kamara K. 🟨,
  • 55', 2 - 1, Zinckernagel P. , Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
  • 68', Kamara K. , Valenzuela G. ,
  • 73', Orellano L. , Smith B. ,
  • 73', Barroso L. , Dean J. ,
  • 73', Gutierrez B. , Haile-Selassie M. ,
  • 76', Bamba J. 🟨,
  • 83', Oregel S. , Barlow T. ,
  • 83', Bamba J. , Glasgow O. ,
  • 90', Evander , Hadebe T. ,
  • 90', Denkey K. , Baird C. ,
  • 90+4', Zinckernagel P. , Williams S. ,
  • 90+7', Elliott J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
50.3%
Draw
22.7%
Chicago Fire
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.3% 21% 20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 20.2% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.
  • Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Cincinnati - Chicago Fire Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.64)
    4.17
    (4.54)
    3.54
    (4.61)
    5.5%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 49.9%90.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
    • Cincinnati is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Cincinnati might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Hagglund N. (Ribs Injury) Kubo Y. (Ankle Injury) Nwobodo O. (Injury) Orellano L. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Chicago: Brady C. (International duty) Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Poreba D. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cincinnati: Sergio Santos (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Chicago: Gasper C. (Injury) Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Reynolds J. (Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Chicago Fire were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 2:3
    17.07.2024 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 0:1
    02.03.2024 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 1:2
    03.06.2023 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 1:0
    18.03.2023 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 3:3
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    Latest results of Chicago Fire
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC27164752:331952
    2Minnesota United27138644:301447
    3Vancouver Whitecaps26137644:291546
    4Seattle Sounders26118743:36741
    5Los Angeles FC24117643:301340
    6Portland Timbers26107935:37-237
    7Colorado Rapids271061136:41-536
    8Austin FC2598824:29-535
    9San Jose Earthquakes27881150:47332
    10Real Salt Lake26941327:33-631
    11FC Dallas26781138:46-829
    12Houston Dynamo26781133:42-929
    13Sporting Kansas City26661437:50-1324
    14St. Louis City26561529:44-1521
    15Los Angeles Galaxy26371629:55-2616


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Cincinnati27164742:34852
    2Philadelphia Union27156644:261851
    3Nashville SC27145844:311347
    4Orlando City27138653:351847
    5Inter Miami24136553:391445
    6Columbus Crew26129542:37545
    7Charlotte271421145:39644
    8New York City25125836:30641
    9Chicago Fire26116950:44639
    10New York Red Bulls271161042:37539
    11New England Revolution26771233:37-428
    12Toronto FC26581327:34-723
    13Atlanta Utd264101231:49-1822
    14CF Montreal27481525:48-2320
    15DC United27481523:52-2920

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)