Result
2:1
05/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- MLS
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | MLS Season Pass |
 World | EA Sports FC |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (371/423) | 87% (403/464) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (371/423) | 87% (403/464) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (34/52) | 63% (31/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (56/76) | 80% (135/169) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/7) | 13% (3/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.29 | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (8/17) | 57% (12/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.62 | 1.33 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | -0.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', 1 - 0, Evander ⚽, Orellano L. (A),
- 45+2', Engel L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 50', 2 - 0, Denkey K. ⚽, Evander (A), Kamara K. (A2)
- 53', Kamara K. 🟨,
- 55', 2 - 1, Zinckernagel P. ⚽, Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
- 68', Kamara K. ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
- 73', Orellano L. ↓, Smith B. ↑,
- 73', Barroso L. ↓, Dean J. ↑,
- 73', Gutierrez B. ↓, Haile-Selassie M. ↑,
- 76', Bamba J. 🟨,
- 83', Oregel S. ↓, Barlow T. ↑,
- 83', Bamba J. ↓, Glasgow O. ↑,
- 90', Evander ↓, Hadebe T. ↑,
- 90', Denkey K. ↓, Baird C. ↑,
- 90+4', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Williams S. ↑,
- 90+7', Elliott J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Cincinnati
50.3% | Draw
22.7% | Chicago Fire
27% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Cincinnati - Chicago Fire Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↑
(1.64) |
4.17 ↓
(4.54) |
3.54 ↓
(4.61) |
5.5%
(4.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 49.9% – 90.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
- Cincinnati is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Cincinnati might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Cincinnati: Hagglund N.
(Ribs Injury)
Kubo Y.
(Ankle Injury)
Nwobodo O.
(Injury)
Orellano L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Chicago: Brady C.
(International duty)
Cupps C.
(Leg Injury)
Poreba D.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Cincinnati: Sergio Santos
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Chicago: Gasper C.
(Injury)
Kouame R.
(Lower-Body Injury)
Mueller C.
(Personal Reasons)
Reynolds J.
(Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Cincinnati won against Chicago Fire?
Cincinnati has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chicago Fire won against Cincinnati?
Chicago Fire has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Chicago Fire were as follows:
19.04.2025
Chicago Fire
-
Cincinnati
2:3
17.07.2024
Cincinnati
-
Chicago Fire
0:1
02.03.2024
Chicago Fire
-
Cincinnati
1:2
03.06.2023
Cincinnati
-
Chicago Fire
1:0
18.03.2023
Chicago Fire
-
Cincinnati
3:3
Latest results of Cincinnati
Latest results of Chicago Fire
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Philadelphia Union | Bye | |
| 2 | Chicago Fire | Orlando City | 3 : 1 |
| 3 | Charlotte | Bye | |
| 4 | Bye | New York City | |
| 5 | Inter Miami | Bye | |
| 6 | Bye | Nashville SC | |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | Bye | |
| 8 | Bye | Columbus Crew | |
| 9 | San Diego FC | Bye | |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | Real Salt Lake | 3 : 1 |
| 11 | Minnesota United | Bye | |
| 12 | Bye | Seattle Sounders | |
| 13 | Los Angeles FC | Bye | |
| 14 | Bye | Austin FC | |
| 15 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Bye | |
| 16 | Bye | FC Dallas | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Philadelphia Union | Chicago Fire | |
| 2 | Charlotte | New York City | |
| 3 | Inter Miami | Nashville SC | 1 : 0 |
| 4 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | |
| 5 | San Diego FC | Portland Timbers | |
| 6 | Minnesota United | Seattle Sounders | |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | Austin FC | |
| 8 | Vancouver Whitecaps | FC Dallas | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
