Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS Cincinnati - Chicago Fire
Result
2:1
05/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
xG on target (xGOT)
1.330.62
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
710
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
110
Touches in opposition box
1321
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
138
Passes
88% (371/423)87% (403/464)
Long passes
65% (34/52)63% (31/49)
Passes in final third
74% (56/76)80% (135/169)
Crosses
0% (0/7)13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.290.75
Throw-ins
1316
Fouls
813
Tackles
47% (8/17)57% (12/21)
Duels won
5142
Clearances
3611
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
0.621.33
Goals prevented
-0.38-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 19', 1 - 0, Evander , Orellano L. (A),
  • 45+2', Engel L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 50', 2 - 0, Denkey K. , Evander (A), Kamara K. (A2)
  • 53', Kamara K. 🟨,
  • 55', 2 - 1, Zinckernagel P. , Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
  • 68', Kamara K. , Valenzuela G. ,
  • 73', Orellano L. , Smith B. ,
  • 73', Barroso L. , Dean J. ,
  • 73', Gutierrez B. , Haile-Selassie M. ,
  • 76', Bamba J. 🟨,
  • 83', Oregel S. , Barlow T. ,
  • 83', Bamba J. , Glasgow O. ,
  • 90', Evander , Hadebe T. ,
  • 90', Denkey K. , Baird C. ,
  • 90+4', Zinckernagel P. , Williams S. ,
  • 90+7', Elliott J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
50.3%
Draw
22.7%
Chicago Fire
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.3% 21% 20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6% 20.2% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.
  • Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Cincinnati - Chicago Fire Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.64)
    4.17
    (4.54)
    3.54
    (4.61)
    5.5%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Chicago Fire?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Chicago will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 49.9%90.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cincinnati (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
    • Cincinnati is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Chicago's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Cincinnati might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Hagglund N. (Ribs Injury) Kubo Y. (Ankle Injury) Nwobodo O. (Injury) Orellano L. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Chicago: Brady C. (International duty) Cupps C. (Leg Injury) Poreba D. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cincinnati: Sergio Santos (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Chicago: Gasper C. (Injury) Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Personal Reasons) Reynolds J. (Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Chicago Fire were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 2:3
    17.07.2024 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 0:1
    02.03.2024 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 1:2
    03.06.2023 Cincinnati - Chicago Fire 1:0
    18.03.2023 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 3:3
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    Latest results of Chicago Fire
    MLS Table
    Main

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    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC25144748:321646
    2Vancouver Whitecaps24136542:261645
    3Minnesota United25128542:281444
    4Seattle Sounders24108639:35438
    5Portland Timbers24107733:32137
    6Los Angeles FC22106639:281136
    7Austin FC2396821:26-533
    8Real Salt Lake24941126:30-431
    9Colorado Rapids25861131:39-830
    10San Jose Earthquakes25781047:44329
    11Houston Dynamo24761130:39-927
    12FC Dallas24671135:45-1025
    13Sporting Kansas City24661236:45-924
    14St. Louis City24461424:40-1618
    15Los Angeles Galaxy24371428:48-2016


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union25155543:241950
    2FC Cincinnati25154639:31849
    3Nashville SC25145642:261647
    4Columbus Crew25128541:36544
    5Inter Miami22126449:341542
    6Orlando City25118646:331341
    7Charlotte251221143:39438
    8New York City24115834:29538
    9Chicago Fire24105945:40535
    10New York Red Bulls25961039:36333
    11New England Revolution24671131:35-425
    12Toronto FC24561325:32-721
    13Atlanta Utd24491129:45-1621
    14DC United25471422:49-2719
    15CF Montreal25461523:46-2318

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)