Result
3:0
05/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 6
- Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.46 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (444/500) | 78% (227/291) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.14 | 0.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (444/500) | 78% (227/291) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (29/48) | 59% (23/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (125/161) | 66% (48/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (3/21) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 0.17 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.01 | 2.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | -0.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 15', Kaio Cesar ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
- 23', Guilherme Nogueira 🟨,
- 40', Hugo ↓, Matheus Bidu ↑,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Mike ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
- 54', 1 - 0, Dieguinho ⚽, Matheus Bidu (A),
- 56', Octavio 🟨,
- 58', Wendel Lomar 🟨,
- 60', Octavio ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
- 65', 2 - 0, Gui Negao ⚽, Dieguinho (A),
- 70', Bruno Silva ↓, Vinicius Guedes ↑,
- 72', Gui Negao ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
- 73', Garro R. ↓, Depay M. ↑,
- 73', Vitinho ↓, Kayke ↑,
- 76', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
- 76', Rodolfo ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
- 78', Vinicius Popo 🟨,
- 80', 3 - 0, Kayke ⚽, Depay M. (A),
- 82', Pereira M. 🟨,
- 88', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
Chances of winning
Corinthians
61.1% | Draw
22.8% | Capivariano
16.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Corinthians - Capivariano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↑
(1.43) |
4.08 ↓
(4.3) |
5.86 ↓
(7.3) |
6.7%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Corinthians - Capivariano?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Capivariano will win (votes: 2 - 50%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 50%). Capivariano (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Corinthians (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Corinthians (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Corinthians (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Corinthians (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.25 - Corinthians (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 7 - 70%). Capivariano (votes: 3 - 30%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Capivariano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Corinthians: Martinez J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Capivariano: Baianinho
(Yellow Cards)
Ricardo Cerqueira
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Corinthians: Gabriel Paulista
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Corinthians won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Corinthians won against Capivariano?
Corinthians has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Capivariano won against Corinthians?
Capivariano has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Corinthians - Capivariano were as follows:
Latest results of Corinthians
Latest results of Capivariano
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
