Result
1:0
30/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.10 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (255/319) | 87% (416/477) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (255/319) | 87% (416/477) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (20/41) | 50% (24/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (48/77) | 75% (91/121) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 15% (4/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.12 | 0.71 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 23', Luciano 🟨,
- 28', Villalba L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 61', Rodriguinho 🟨,
- 64', 1 - 0, Matheus Pereira ⚽,
- 70', Patryck 🟨,
- 73', Wanderson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
- 78', Ferreira ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 78', Luciano ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
- 83', Pablo Maia ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
- 83', Patryck ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 87', Matheus Pereira ↓, Kaua Prates ↑,
- 87', Lucas Silva 🟨,
- 87', Lucas Silva ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
- 88', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Cruzeiro
49.5% | Draw
29.4% | São Paulo
21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Cruzeiro - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.78) |
3.21 ↓
(3.38) |
4.52 ↓
(4.73) |
5.8%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 40% – 93.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 0.
- At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Cruzeiro is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner
(Broken Leg)
Janderson
(Knee Injury)
Joao Marcelo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Diaz E.
(Yellow Cards)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Marcos Antonio
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 0.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 0.9:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against São Paulo?
Cruzeiro has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Cruzeiro?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro - São Paulo were as follows:
13.04.2025
São Paulo
-
Cruzeiro
1:1
15.01.2025
Cruzeiro
-
São Paulo
1:1
15.09.2024
Cruzeiro
-
São Paulo
0:1
02.06.2024
São Paulo
-
Cruzeiro
2:0
02.11.2023
São Paulo
-
Cruzeiro
1:0
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
