Result
4:1
04/04/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win Sports |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.02 | 1.44 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (212/272) | 88% (419/478) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.02 | 1.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 1.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (212/272) | 88% (419/478) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (16/48) | 53% (20/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (63/90) | 70% (89/127) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (5/15) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.65 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (19/26) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 45 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.83 | 2.70 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.83 | -1.30 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 12', 1 - 0, Jonathan Calleri (Penalty Awarded),
- 16', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Artur (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Matheus Henrique ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
- 46', William Furtado ↓, Kaua Moraes ↑,
- 46', Sabino ↓, Matheus Doria ↑,
- 47', 2 - 1, Christian ⚽, Arroyo K. (A),
- 60', Luciano ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 62', 3 - 1, Ferreira ⚽,
- 67', Wendell 🟨,
- 68', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
- 68', Gerson ↓, Wanderson ↑,
- 68', Arroyo K. ↓, Chico ↑,
- 76', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 77', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 83', Kaio Jorge ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
- 83', Fabricio Bruno ↓, Jonathan Jesus ↑,
- 90+1', 4 - 1, Ferreira ⚽,
- 90+3', Ferreira 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
43% | Draw
29.8% | Cruzeiro
27.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
São Paulo - Cruzeiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.21 ↑
(2.14) |
3.18 ↓
(3.35) |
3.49 ↓
(3.51) |
5.3%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Cruzeiro?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 44.1% – 94.3%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Carlos Coronel
(Inactive)
Franco A.
(Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Broken rib)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio
(Knee Injury)
Marquinhos
(Knee Injury)
Sinisterra L.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucca Marques
(Ribs Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Cruzeiro?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against São Paulo?
Cruzeiro has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Cruzeiro were as follows:
30.08.2025
Cruzeiro
-
São Paulo
1:0
13.04.2025
São Paulo
-
Cruzeiro
1:1
15.01.2025
Cruzeiro
-
São Paulo
1:1
15.09.2024
Cruzeiro
-
São Paulo
0:1
02.06.2024
São Paulo
-
Cruzeiro
2:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
