Darya Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

02/09/2026 at 12:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY).

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max

Match Stats


Aces
1	3
Double Faults
5	5
1st serve percentage
69%	66%
1st serve points won
59% (30/51)	63% (34/54)
2nd serve points won
39% (9/23)	64% (18/28)
Break Points Saved
7/10	7/7
Average 1st serve speed
144 km/h	167 km/h
Average 2nd serve speed
126 km/h	145 km/h
1st return points won
37% (20/54)	41% (21/51)
2nd return points won
36% (10/28)	61% (14/23)
Break Points Converted
0/7	3/10
Winners
14	21
Unforced errors
37	34
Net points won
29% (2/7)	75% (3/4)
Service Points Won
53% (39/74)	63% (52/82)
Return Points Won
37% (30/82)	47% (35/74)
Total Points Won
44% (69/156)	56% (87/156)
Last 10 balls
4	6
Match points saved
8	0
Service games won
63% (5/8)	100% (9/9)
Return games won
0% (0/9)	38% (3/8)
Total games won
29% (5/17)	71% (12/17)
Distance covered (metres)
1546	1641

Chances of winning

Darya Kasatkina
24.8%

Paula Badosa
75.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Darya Kasatkina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Darya Kasatkina's form might have worsened.

Paula Badosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paula Badosa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darya Kasatkina than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Darya Kasatkina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paula Badosa than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paula Badosa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.25 ↑ (2.38)		1.57 (1.57)	-17.3% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

What is the prediction for Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Kasatkina will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Badosa will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Badosa: 25.1% – 83.9%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Kasatkina is ranked WTA: 61. Badosa is ranked WTA: 93.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kasatkina won 1.
Both players have been playing unpredictably.
In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Kasatkina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 0.9:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Darya Kasatkina won against Paula Badosa?

Darya Kasatkina has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Paula Badosa won against Darya Kasatkina?

Paula Badosa has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa were as follows:

31.05.2025 Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa 2:0

19.10.2024 Paula Badosa - Darya Kasatkina Badosa P. retired

05.07.2024 Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa 1:2

18.04.2023 Darya Kasatkina - Paula Badosa 0:2

Latest results of Darya Kasatkina

13.08.2026 Darya Kasatkina - Zeynep Sonmez 1:2 ✺

05.08.2026 Darya Kasatkina - Elena Rybakina 1:2 ✺

03.08.2026 Xin Yu Wang - Darya Kasatkina 1:2 ✺

28.07.2026 Darya Kasatkina - Anna Kalinskaya 0:2 ✺

26.07.2026 Darya Kasatkina - Alana Smith 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Paula Badosa

24.07.2026 Mayar Sherif - Paula Badosa 2:1 ✺

23.07.2026 Paula Badosa - Panna Udvardy 2:0 ✺

22.07.2026 Katarzyna Kawa - Paula Badosa 0:2 ✺

20.07.2026 Mayar Sherif - Paula Badosa Badosa P. Retired ✺

18.07.2026 Paula Badosa - Tamara Zidansek 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Osorio C.	2 : 0
2	Zarazua R.	Iatcenko P. (Q)	1 : 2
3	Ito A.	Selekhmeteva O.	0 : 2
4	Rakhimova K.	Krejcikova B. (27)	2 : 0
5	Chwalinska M. (20)	Townsend T.	0 : 2
6	Preston T. (WC)	Parks A.	2 : 0
7	Vandewinkel H.	Pliskova Ka.	1 : 2
8	Snigur D.	Shnaider D. (15)	0 : 2
9	Kostyuk M. (11)	Hunter S. (Q)	2 : 0
10	Stephens S. (WC)	Tauson C.	2 : 0
11	Birrell K.	Marcinko P.	2 : 1
12	Kessler M.	Alexandrova E. (18)	0 : 2
13	Li A. (29)	Ruzic A.	2 : 0
14	Gibson T.	Vekic D.	1 : 2
15	Kalieva E. (Q)	Tararudee L.	1 : 2
16	Volynets K.	Noskova L. (6)	0 : 2
17	Pegula J. (3)	Ruse G.	2 : 0
18	Williams V. (WC)	Kenin S. (WC)	0 : 2
19	Sawangkaew M.	Udvardy P.	2 : 0
20	Zhang S.	Fernandez L. (31)	0 : 2
21	Paolini J. (19)	Erjavec V.	2 : 1
22	Stefanini L. (Q)	Yastremska D.	2 : 1
23	Golubic V.	Parry D.	0 : 2
24	Grabher J.	Cirstea S. (16)	0 : 2
25	Svitolina E. (9)	Sierra S.	2 : 0
26	Joint M.	Samsonova L.	2 : 1
27	Arango E.	Wang Xin.	0 : 2
28	Blinkova A.	Kalinskaya A. (21)	0 : 2
29	Navarro E. (26)	Boisson L.	2 : 1
30	Koevermans A. (Q)	McNally C.	0 : 2
31	Lee C. Y. (WC)	Boulter K.	1 : 2
32	Kraus S.	Muchova K. (7)	0 : 2
33	Andreeva M. (5)	Tjen J.	2 : 0
34	Knutson G. (Q)	Lys E.	0 : 2
35	Bartunkova N.	Sherif M.	2 : 0
36	Maria T.	Ostapenko J. (30)	2 : 1
37	Potapova A. (24)	Semenistaja D. (LL)	2 : 0
38	Rus A. (Q)	Jeanjean L. (WC)	0 : 2
39	Tagger L.	Korpatsch T.	2 : 0
40	Krueger A.	Anisimova A. (10)	0 : 2
41	Jovic I. (14)	Frech M.	2 : 0
42	Linette M.	Jones F. (Q)	1 : 2
43	Oliynykova O.	Brantmeier R. (WC)	2 : 0
44	Stoiana M. (Q)	Eala A. (17)	0 : 2
45	Bejlek S. (28)	Bucsa C.	1 : 2
46	Kalinina A.	Sakatsume H. (Q)	0 : 2
47	Kasatkina D.	Badosa P.	0 : 2
48	Sonmez Z.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
49	Swiatek I. (8)	Wang Xiy.	2 : 0
50	Podoroska N.	Waltert S.	2 : 1
51	Dart H. (Q)	Stearns P.	2 : 1
52	Jacquemot E.	Bouzkova M. (25)	0 : 2
53	Keys M. (22)	Korneeva A.	2 : 0
54	Havlickova L. (Q)	Bondar A.	0 : 2
55	Zheng Q. (Q)	Liutova K. (Q)	2 : 1
56	Putintseva Y.	Bencic B. (12)	2 : 1
57	Osaka N. (13)	Zakharova A.	2 : 0
58	Cocciaretto E.	Siniakova K.	0 : 2
59	Zidansek T. (Q)	Timofeeva M.	0 : 2
60	Quevedo K.	Mertens E. (23)	0 : 2
61	Sakkari M. (32)	Montgomery R. (Q)	2 : 1
62	Starodubtseva Y.	Seidel E.	2 : 0
63	Vidmanova D.	Bouzas Maneiro J.	0 : 2
64	Frodin T. (WC)	Rybakina E. (2)	0 : 2

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Iatcenko P.	2 : 0
2	Selekhmeteva O.	Rakhimova K.	0 : 2
3	Townsend T.	Preston T.	2 : 0
4	Pliskova Ka.	Shnaider D. (15)	0 : 2
5	Kostyuk M. (11)	Stephens S.	2 : 0
6	Birrell K.	Alexandrova E. (18)	1 : 2
7	Li A. (29)	Vekic D.	2 : 1
8	Tararudee L.	Noskova L. (6)	0 : 2
9	Pegula J. (3)	Kenin S.	2 : 0
10	Sawangkaew M.	Fernandez L. (31)	0 : 2
11	Paolini J. (19)	Stefanini L.	2 : 0
12	Parry D.	Cirstea S. (16)	0 : 2
13	Svitolina E. (9)	Joint M.	2 : 1
14	Wang Xin.	Kalinskaya A. (21)	1 : 2
15	Navarro E. (26)	McNally C.	2 : 1
16	Boulter K.	Muchova K. (7)	0 : 2
17	Andreeva M. (5)	Lys E.	2 : 0
18	Bartunkova N.	Maria T.	2 : 1
19	Potapova A. (24)	Jeanjean L.	2 : 1
20	Tagger L.	Anisimova A. (10)	1 : 2
21	Jovic I. (14)	Jones F.	2 : 0
22	Oliynykova O.	Eala A. (17)	0 : 2
23	Bucsa C.	Sakatsume H.	2 : 1
24	Badosa P.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
25	Swiatek I. (8)	Podoroska N.	2 : 0
26	Dart H.	Bouzkova M. (25)	0 : 2
27	Keys M. (22)	Bondar A.	2 : 1
28	Zheng Q.	Putintseva Y.	2 : 1
29	Osaka N. (13)	Siniakova K.	2 : 1
30	Timofeeva M.	Mertens E. (23)	0 : 2
31	Sakkari M. (32)	Starodubtseva Y.	1 : 2
32	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Rybakina E. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Rakhimova K.	2 : 0
2	Townsend T.	Shnaider D. (15)	2 : 1
3	Kostyuk M. (11)	Alexandrova E. (18)	2 : 0
4	Li A. (29)	Noskova L. (6)	1 : 2
5	Pegula J. (3)	Fernandez L. (31)	2 : 1
6	Paolini J. (19)	Cirstea S. (16)	0 : 2
7	Svitolina E. (9)	Kalinskaya A. (21)	1 : 2
8	Navarro E. (26)	Muchova K. (7)	2 : 0
9	Andreeva M. (5)	Bartunkova N.	2 : 0
10	Potapova A. (24)	Anisimova A. (10)	2 : 0
11	Jovic I. (14)	Eala A. (17)	2 : 1
12	Bucsa C.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
13	Swiatek I. (8)	Bouzkova M. (25)	2 : 0
14	Keys M. (22)	Zheng Q.	1 : 2
15	Osaka N. (13)	Mertens E. (23)	2 : 1
16	Starodubtseva Y.	Rybakina E. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Townsend T.	2 : 0
2	Kostyuk M. (11)	Noskova L. (6)	1 : 2
3	Pegula J. (3)	Cirstea S. (16)	2 : 0
4	Kalinskaya A. (21)	Navarro E. (26)	0 : 2
5	Andreeva M. (5)	Potapova A. (24)	2 : 1
6	Jovic I. (14)	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
7	Swiatek I. (8)	Zheng Q.	0 : 2
8	Osaka N. (13)	Rybakina E. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Noskova L. (6)
2	Pegula J. (3)	Navarro E. (26)
3	Andreeva M. (5)	Gauff C. (4)
4	Zheng Q.	Rybakina E. (2)

Semi-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4

Final

1

TBD #1

TBD #2