Result
1:0
01/03/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 9
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.86 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (421/481) | 76% (206/270) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (421/481) | 76% (206/270) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (32/54) | 26% (11/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (108/141) | 66% (53/80) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 69% (9/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.93 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (5/5) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 25 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.12 | 0.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.12 | -0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Bello E. 🟥,
- 30', Casco M. 🟨,
- 34', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 36', Arrieta C. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
- 38', Moreno M. 🟨,
- 45+1', Angulo J. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
- 46', Valencia E. ↓, Angulo A. ↑,
- 52', 1 - 0, Torres Patino J. P. (Penalty Awarded),
- 61', Arango C. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
- 61', Cardona E. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
- 62', Nieto J. ↓, Rovira B. ↑,
- 74', Velasquez S. ↓, Uribe C. ↑,
- 74', Moreno M. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
- 74', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
- 82', Uribe M. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
- 84', Morelos A. 🟨,
- 90', Sandoval L. 🟨,
- 90+4', Barbosa Gomez S. P. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/28tbe738
Chances of winning
Deportes Tolima
34.9% | Draw
28.5% | Atlético Nacional
36.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.68 ↓
(2.85) |
3.27 ↓
(3.3) |
2.54 ↑
(2.45) |
7.2%
(6.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Deportes Tolima (2.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH -1 - Deportes Tolima (5.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 1.
- In recent matches, Deportes Tolima has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Atlético Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Deportes Tolima won against Atlético Nacional?
Deportes Tolima has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Deportes Tolima?
Atlético Nacional has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
02.08.2025
Deportes Tolima
-
Atlético Nacional
0:0
19.03.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Deportes Tolima
4:3
22.12.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Deportes Tolima
2:0
18.12.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Atlético Nacional
1:1
14.11.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Atlético Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Deportes Tolima
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24:13 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Once Caldas | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Junior | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Dep. Cali | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25:17 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11:21 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
