Result
1:1
17/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 13
- Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (218/291) | 73% (196/269) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (218/291) | 73% (196/269) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (29/51) | 33% (17/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (45/83) | 62% (44/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 41% (7/17) | 37% (7/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.16 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 56% (9/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.24 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.05 | -0.76 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 30', Mejia E. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 41', 0 - 1, Carabali F. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
- 45+2', Morales J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Tello M. ↓, Alvarez L. ↑,
- 46', Mejia J. ↓, Bedoya A. ↑,
- 48', 1 - 1, Paz F. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
- 48', Carabali F. 🟨,
- 59', Flor F. 🟨,
- 62', Bedoya A. 🟨,
- 73', Cela A. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 73', Carabali F. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
- 76', Munoz A. ↓, Viera M. ↑,
- 76', Marrufo J. ↓, Zambrano R. ↑,
- 79', Cevallos J. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 82', Guisamano J. 🟨,
- 86', Chere A. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
- 89', Cazares J. ↓, Zamora S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Deportivo Macará
40.8% | Draw
28.5% | El Nacional
30.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Macará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Deportivo Macará - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.28 ↑
(2.22) |
3.24 ↑
(3.21) |
3.03 ↓
(3.22) |
7.8%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Deportivo Macará - El Nacional?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
El Nacional will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macará won 3.
- Macará has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- El Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Macará will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Macará won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Macará won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.3:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Macará won against El Nacional?
Deportivo Macará has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Deportivo Macará?
El Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Deportivo Macará - El Nacional were as follows:
11.08.2024
El Nacional
-
Deportivo Macará
1:3
09.03.2024
Deportivo Macará
-
El Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Deportivo Macará
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 50:20 | 30 | 59 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 42:26 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Dep. Cuenca | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 32:26 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 51:35 | 16 | 42 |
| 6 | Libertad | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 42 |
| 7 | Orense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 31:31 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 26:30 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Macara | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26:28 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Delfin | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 25:40 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 24:41 | -17 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 29:38 | -9 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 30:45 | -15 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
