Result
0:2
14/09/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 28
- Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 1.75 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (308/388) | 80% (243/305) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 1.75 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 2.19 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (308/388) | 80% (243/305) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 25% (14/57) | 47% (25/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (42/82) | 66% (70/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.74 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.19 | 0.73 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.19 | 0.73 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 25', Ayala M. 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 1, Juambeltz M. ⚽, Viera M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
- 46', Ayala M. ↓, Mohor J. ↑,
- 69', Hernandez B. ↓, Borja J. ↑,
- 69', Guisamano J. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
- 69', Cela A. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
- 71', Viera M. ↓, Paz F. ↑,
- 80', Mohor J. 🟨,
- 88', Espinoza T. ↓, Mesa Mercado E. E. ↑,
- 88', Gonzalez P. ↓, Alvarez L. ↑,
- 88', Juambeltz M. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
- 90', Chala J. ↓, Puente J. ↑,
- 90+3', 0 - 2, Paz F. ⚽, Alvarez L. (A),
Chances of winning
El Nacional
23.6% | Draw
31.8% | Deportivo Macará
44.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-27.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.Deportivo Macará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Macará's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+29%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (-23.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Macará, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
El Nacional - Deportivo Macará Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.95 ↑
(1.81) |
3.4
(3.4) |
2.37 ↓
(4.2) |
-8.2%
(8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.2:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Deportivo Macará?
El Nacional has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Macará won against El Nacional?
Deportivo Macará has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Deportivo Macará were as follows:
17.05.2025
Deportivo Macará
-
El Nacional
1:1
11.08.2024
El Nacional
-
Deportivo Macará
1:3
09.03.2024
Deportivo Macará
-
El Nacional
1:0
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 55:23 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | LDU Quito ✔ | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:31 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | U. Catolica | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 58:39 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Orense | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Libertad | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 42:36 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 35:29 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec ✔ | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 42 |
| 9 | Aucas ✔ | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38:41 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Macara ✔ | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 32:30 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | EL Nacional ✔ | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 32:46 | -14 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 26:42 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 | Tecnico U | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 26:46 | -20 | 28 |
| 14 | Vinotinto | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 34:43 | -9 | 27 |
| 15 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 38:50 | -12 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta ✔ | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 34:53 | -19 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Emelec is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
