Result
2:1
29/12/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 24
- Referee: Ward G. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (266/353) | 78% (340/434) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (266/353) | 78% (340/434) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (12/39) | 36% (26/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (80/119) | 57% (50/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 19% (4/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.38 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 29% (6/21) | 63% (12/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.67 | 1.15 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.33 | -0.85 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 6', 1 - 0, De Cordova-Reid B. ⚽, Fatawu I. (A),
- 9', 1 - 1, Brewster R. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
- 41', 2 - 1, James J. ⚽, Thomas L. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 51', Choudhury H. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
- 65', De Cordova-Reid B. ↓, Ramsey A. ↑,
- 65', Ayew J. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
- 67', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 67', Brewster R. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
- 69', Ramsey A. ↓, Page L. ↑,
- 69', Fatawu I. ↓, Monga J. ↑,
- 73', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 83', James J. 🟨,
- 89', Elder C. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 89', Adams E. ↓, Travis L. ↑,
- 90+6', Thompson L. 🟨,
- 90+6', Jackson K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Leicester City
44.7% | Draw
28.8% | Derby County
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leicester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Leicester City - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.11 ↑
(2.03) |
3.26 ↑
(3.23) |
3.55 ↓
(3.79) |
6.2%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Leicester City - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
39 users predict this event. Leicester will win (votes: 24 - 61.5%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 12.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leicester: 46.2% – 76.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Leicester (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Leicester (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Derby (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Leicester (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Leicester City will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Leicester (votes: 12 - 75%). Derby (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leicester won 4.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Derby may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Leicester might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Leicester: Daka P.
(International duty)
Kristiansen V.
(Knock)
Soumare B.
(Knee Injury)
Souttar H.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Hamstring Injury)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Ankle Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Thigh Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
Ward J.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Leicester: Vestergaard J.
(Inactive)
Winks H.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Langas S.
(Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Leicester won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 24:10. (average 2.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Leicester won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 3.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Leicester City won against Derby County?
Leicester City has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Leicester City?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Leicester City - Derby County were as follows:
06.12.2025
Derby County
-
Leicester City
1:3
Latest results of Leicester City
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 72:38 | 34 | 71 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 54:35 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 60:34 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Millwall | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 47:40 | 7 | 62 |
| 5 | Hull | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 60 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54:45 | 9 | 57 |
| 7 | Southampton | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 53 |
| 8 | Derby | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 52:46 | 6 | 51 |
| 9 | Watford | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 48:44 | 4 | 50 |
| 11 | Preston | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 41:40 | 1 | 49 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 46:46 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 35 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 50:48 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Stoke | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 47 |
| 15 | QPR | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 46:54 | -8 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 40:43 | -3 | 46 |
| 17 | Norwich | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 47:44 | 3 | 45 |
| 18 | Charlton | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 41 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:44 | -10 | 39 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:46 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | West Brom | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Leicester | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 47:56 | -9 | 34 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 35 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21:71 | -50 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
