Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Scottish Challenge Cup Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts
Result
3:3
23/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Challenge Cup - Round 4

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 3)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Honeyman S. ,
  • 25', 1 - 1, Arnott A. (Pen),
  • 26', 1 - 2, Cole R. , Johnston C. (A),
  • 36', 1 - 3, Arnott A. (Pen),
  • 39', 2 - 3, Arnott A. (Own goal),
  • 45+1', 3 - 3, Wallace T. , Honeyman S. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning


Dumbarton
37.8%
Draw
26.3%
Kelty Hearts
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44% 25% 31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5% 24.7% 30.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dumbarton's form might have worsened.
  • Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dumbarton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.63
    (2.07)
    3.61
    (3.65)
    2.62
    (2.94)
    4%
    (9.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • Preview Facts
    • Dumbarton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Kelty Hearts has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Recently, Kelty Hearts has had a series of home games.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Dumbarton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts were as follows:
    05.04.2025 Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton 0:6
    28.12.2024 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 2:0
    09.11.2024 Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton 2:0
    31.08.2024 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 2:2
    09.09.2023 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 1:3
    Latest results of Dumbarton
    20.09.2025 East Kilbride - Dumbarton 1:1
    06.09.2025 East Fife - Dumbarton 1:1
    30.08.2025 Dumbarton - Edinburgh City 1:2
    26.08.2025 Dumbarton - Hearts B 1:0
    Latest results of Kelty Hearts
    Scottish Challenge Cup Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Inverness ✔ 440016:31312
    2Stenhousemuir ✔ 440012:21012
    3Montrose ✔ 440011:4712
    4Edinburgh City440010:5512
    5Stranraer43019:549
    6Forfar Athletic43017:349
    7Peterhead42209:458
    8Spartans42208:358
    9Dumbarton42209:638
    10Hamilton42119:637
    11East Fife42119:637
    12Kelty Hearts42117:437
    13Elgin City42116:607
    14Alloa420211:926
    15Celtic B42029:816
    16Clyde42028:716
    17Queen of South42028:806
    18East Kilbride42028:9-16
    19Cove Rangers41213:305
    20Annan41127:9-24
    21St. Mirren B41128:11-34
    22Stirling41035:8-33
    23Dundee Utd B41034:7-33
    24Hearts B41036:11-53
    25Hibernian B40133:10-71
    26Motherwell B40131:10-91
    27Rangers B40046:12-60
    28Aberdeen B40045:13-80
    29Kilmarnock B40042:11-90
    30Dundee FC B40043:16-130

          Promotion ~ Challenge Cup (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Inverness is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Stenhousemuir is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    Montrose is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals)