Dunkerque vs Bastia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stade Marcel Tribut (Dunkerque).

Ligue 2 - Round 24
Referee: Petit A. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.54	1.52
Ball possession
68%	32%
Total shots
8	14
Shots on target
2	6
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
3	5
Passes
87% (515/589)	71% (189/265)
Yellow cards
3	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.54	1.52
xG on target (xGOT)
0.72	0.88
Total shots
8	14
Shots on target
2	6
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked shots
3	3
Shots inside the box
4	9
Shots outside the box
4	5
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
3	5
Touches in opposition box
13	16
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	1
Free kicks
13	11
Passes
87% (515/589)	71% (189/265)
Long passes
54% (22/41)	33% (21/64)
Passes in final third
66% (94/143)	55% (42/76)
Crosses
36% (4/11)	29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.52	1.04
Throw ins
22	20
Fouls
11	13
Tackles
80% (4/5)	64% (14/22)
Duels won
45	39
Clearances
14	17
Interceptions
12	16
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
4	1
xGOT faced
0.88	0.72
Goals prevented
-0.12	-0.28

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Roncaglia A. ⚽, Boutrah A. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Bardeli E. ⚽, Linguet A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Guevara J. 🟨,
66', Bokele Mputu M. ↓, Daho A. ↑,
78', Zossou A. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
78', Sekongo A. ↓, Sylvestre E. ↑,
78', Merghem M. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
79', Eickmayer J. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
84', Tomi F. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
84', Boutrah A. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
90', Lagae B. ↓, Makhloufi M. ↑,
90', Linguet A. ↓, Diong P. ↑,
90+3', Kante A. 🟨,
90+4', Sanchez A. 🟨,
90+5', Diong P. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Dunkerque
44.5%

Draw
30.6%

Bastia
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

26.7%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

25.7%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunkerque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dunkerque's form might have worsened.

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dunkerque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Dunkerque - Bastia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.82)	3.08 ↓ (3.47)	3.79 ↓ (4.08)	6.4% (8.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Dunkerque - Bastia?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.5 - Dunkerque (2.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Dunkerque will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Dunkerque will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Dunkerque (votes: 9 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunkerque won 1.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
In this match, Dunkerque is the team to beat.
There will not play in Dunkerque: Abner F. (Inactive) Eguaras I. (Inactive) Essimi M. (Inactive) Massock T. (Inactive) Sasso V. (Inactive)
There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Zilliox N. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Dunkerque: Sekongo A. (Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dunkerque won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Dunkerque won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Dunkerque won against Bastia?

Dunkerque has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Dunkerque?

Bastia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Dunkerque - Bastia were as follows:

03.10.2025 Bastia - Dunkerque 0:0

28.03.2025 Bastia - Dunkerque 2:0

24.09.2024 Dunkerque - Bastia 2:1

06.04.2024 Bastia - Dunkerque 1:1

05.12.2023 Dunkerque - Bastia 0:5

Latest results of Dunkerque

13.02.2026 Amiens - Dunkerque 1:4 ✺

06.02.2026 Dunkerque - Guingamp 0:0 ✺

31.01.2026 Dunkerque - Annecy 0:1 ✺

26.01.2026 Le Mans - Dunkerque 1:0 ✺

16.01.2026 Dunkerque - Pau 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Bastia

16.02.2026 Bastia - Troyes 0:0 ✺

06.02.2026 Reims - Bastia 0:0 ✺

30.01.2026 Bastia - Nancy 0:0 ✺

23.01.2026 Bastia - Montpellier 0:2 ✺

16.01.2026 Laval - Bastia 0:2 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	27	16	6	5	44:27	17	54
2	St Etienne	27	15	5	7	46:29	17	50
3	Le Mans	27	12	11	4	37:26	11	47
4	Red Star	27	12	8	7	31:27	4	44
5	Reims	27	11	10	6	39:26	13	43
6	Rodez	27	11	10	6	34:32	2	43
7	Montpellier	27	12	5	10	33:25	8	41
8	Dunkerque	27	10	9	8	42:29	13	39
9	Annecy	27	11	6	10	35:30	5	39
10	Guingamp	27	10	9	8	38:38	0	39
11	Pau FC	27	10	8	9	40:44	-4	38
12	Boulogne	27	9	6	12	30:38	-8	33
13	Grenoble	27	6	12	9	24:30	-6	30
14	Clermont	27	7	7	13	30:36	-6	28
15	Nancy	27	7	6	14	24:40	-16	27
16	Amiens	27	6	5	16	30:46	-16	23
17	Laval	27	3	11	13	21:39	-18	20
18	Bastia	27	3	10	14	14:30	-16	19

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National