Result
2:2
04/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 1
- Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.58 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (269/363) | 70% (192/276) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 2.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (269/363) | 70% (192/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (26/65) | 26% (18/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (67/125) | 61% (61/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (5/34) | 18% (2/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 0.39 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (8/10) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.50 | 1.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 21', Reasco D. (Pen),
- 26', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
- 37', Gallardo N. 🟨,
- 37', Chala J. 🟨,
- 37', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
- 39', 0 - 2, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Gallardo N. ↓, Fernandez O. ↑,
- 46', Leon J. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
- 46', Vega E. ↓, Castro L. ↑,
- 60', Nazareno J. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
- 61', Leon J. 🟥,
- 64', Gallardo N. 🟨,
- 77', 1 - 2, Castro L. ⚽, Cabeza E. (A),
- 78', Borja J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 80', 2 - 2, Estacio J. ⚽,
- 82', Perez Tica J. ↓, Tenorio L. ↑,
- 84', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
- 87', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟨,
- 90+4', Mora F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Delfín
53.2% | Draw
26.2% | El Nacional
20.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Delfín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Delfín's performance.El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Delfín than the current prediction. (-17.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Delfín that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+15.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Delfín - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.74 ↓
(2.5) |
3.52 ↑
(3.25) |
4.43 ↑
(2.65) |
8.5%
(8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Delfín won 0.
- In recent matches, Delfín has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- El Nacional has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Delfín is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Delfín won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 1.7:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Delfín won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Delfín won against El Nacional?
Delfín has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Delfín?
El Nacional has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Delfín - El Nacional were as follows:
15.08.2025
Delfín
-
El Nacional
0:3
25.04.2025
El Nacional
-
Delfín
3:2
20.10.2024
Delfín
-
El Nacional
1:1
29.04.2024
El Nacional
-
Delfín
1:0
30.09.2023
El Nacional
-
Delfín
2:2
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
Placement Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 36:32 | 4 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 33:35 | -2 | 45 |
| 9 | Aucas | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38:41 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Macara | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 32:30 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 34:48 | -14 | 35 |
| 12 | Delfin | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 28:44 | -16 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )
