Casa Pia vs Estoril Praia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Liga Portugal Casa Pia - Estoril Praia
Result
2:2
03/10/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Portugal - Round 8
  • Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 5
portugalPortugalSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaGol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaInter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.101.28
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
67
Passes
78% (300/387)72% (271/377)
Yellow Cards
33
Expected Goals (xG)
1.101.28
xG on target (xGOT)
1.851.82
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
98
Shots outside the Box
22
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
67
Touches in opposition box
1814
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
1214
Passes
78% (300/387)72% (271/377)
Long passes
46% (25/54)36% (24/67)
Passes in final third
55% (52/94)50% (42/84)
Crosses
32% (8/25)12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.260.30
Throw-ins
2328
Fouls
1412
Tackles
61% (11/18)40% (4/10)
Duels won
5741
Clearances
3531
Interceptions
82
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
1.821.85
Goals prevented
-0.18-0.15

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 14', 0 - 1, Lominadze N. , Carvalho J. (A),
  • 27', Guitane R. , Patrick de Paula ,
  • 28', 1 - 1, Kaique Rocha , Livolant J. (A),
  • 34', Carvalho P. 🟨,
  • 37', Miguel Sousa 🟨,
  • 45', 2 - 1, Livolant J. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Lominadze N. , Garcia F. ,
  • 46', Carvalho P. , Lacximicant A. ,
  • 46', Marques A. , Begraoui Y. ,
  • 51', Amaral P. , Parente T. ,
  • 59', Carvalho J. 🟨,
  • 63', Miguel Sousa , Morais T. ,
  • 73', Nhaga R. , Mohamed I. ,
  • 73', Rocha Livramento D. , Cassiano ,
  • 77', Azevedo D. 🟨,
  • 80', Sousa D. 🟨,
  • 84', 2 - 2, Carvalho J. ,
  • 88', Kaique Rocha , Goulart J. ,
  • 88', Perez S. , Brito R. ,
  • 90+1', Ferro 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Casa Pia
34.3%
Draw
29.7%
Estoril Praia
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.5% 27% 29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44% 26.7% 29.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casa Pia's form might have worsened.
  • Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estoril Praia's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casa Pia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estoril Praia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Casa Pia - Estoril Praia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.76
    (2.14)
    3.18
    (3.45)
    2.65
    (3.16)
    5.4%
    (7.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Estoril Praia?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4%70.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.
    • Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Prieto K. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Estoril: Jandro (Inactive) Xeka (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A. (Inactive) Kaique Rocha (Injury) Mandic I. (Inactive) Nsona K. (Injury) Oukili Y. (Injury) Sequeira P. (Injury) Severina X. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Inactive) Sanchez R. (Injury)
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:19. (average 0.7:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Estoril Praia were as follows:
    29.04.2025 Casa Pia - Estoril Praia 1:3
    15.12.2024 Estoril Praia - Casa Pia 0:2
    08.04.2024 Casa Pia - Estoril Praia 0:0
    10.11.2023 Estoril Praia - Casa Pia 4:0
    21.05.2023 Casa Pia - Estoril Praia 2:2
    Latest results of Casa Pia
    27.09.2025 Moreirense - Casa Pia 2:1
    21.09.2025 Casa Pia - Famalicão 1:1
    14.09.2025 Arouca - Casa Pia 0:2
    30.08.2025 Casa Pia - Nacional 0:2
    24.08.2025 Porto - Casa Pia 4:0
    Latest results of Estoril Praia
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Porto871019:11822
    2Sporting CP861120:51519
    3Gil Vicente961214:41019
    4Benfica853013:4918
    5Moreirense850312:11115
    6Famalicao83418:4413
    7Vitoria Guimaraes83239:12-311
    8Braga824212:8410
    9Nacional83149:12-310
    10Alverca931511:16-510
    11Arouca823310:19-99
    12Rio Ave815211:13-28
    13Santa Clara82246:10-48
    14Casa Pia82248:13-58
    15Estrela81436:8-27
    16Estoril813410:13-36
    17Tondela81254:14-105
    18AFS80175:20-151

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