Result
1:1
31/01/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 20
- Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (333/401) | 83% (253/303) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (333/401) | 83% (253/303) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (35/54) | 49% (18/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (88/131) | 63% (44/70) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (5/28) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.29 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 8 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | 0.74 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 10', Moreira P. 🟨,
- 17', Abdulai S. ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 53', Sola A. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 53', Moustier T. ↓, Doue G. ↑,
- 62', Stoica I. ↓, Kalley Y. ↑,
- 64', Kalley Y. 🟨,
- 66', Moreira V. 🟨,
- 69', Chiquinho ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 69', Marezi ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
- 76', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 76', Antonetti L. ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
- 81', 0 - 1, van Hooijdonk S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 84', Figueiredo ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
- 84', Meupiyou B. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 1, Garcia F. ⚽, Lincoln (A),
Chances of winning
Alverca
49.7% | Draw
29.2% | Estrela da Amadora
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estrela da Amadora might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
Alverca - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↓
(2.08) |
3.22 ↓
(3.32) |
4.49 ↑
(3.62) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Alverca - Estrela da Amadora?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 54.1% – 91.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alverca will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 13).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Alverca could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Jansson K.
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Estrela da Amadora?
Alverca has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Alverca?
Estrela da Amadora has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
25.08.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Alverca
2:2
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 82:23 | 59 | 76 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
