Result
1:0
21/01/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 3
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Premiere, SporTV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 0.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 32 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (542/603) | 86% (344/402) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 0.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 32 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 17 | 1 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 0 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 2 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (542/603) | 86% (344/402) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (10/24) | 49% (23/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (221/262) | 59% (17/29) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (13/30) | 0% (0/2) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.31 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (11/19) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 3 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 10 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Daniel Sales ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
- 46', Bruno Henrique ↓, Pedro ↑,
- 51', Cauan Barros 🟥,
- 54', GB ↓, Hugo Moura ↑,
- 64', Everton ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
- 69', 1 - 0, Carrascal J. ⚽,
- 71', Carrascal J. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
- 71', Moreira N. ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
- 71', Cuesta C. ↓, Saldivia A. ↑,
- 78', Emerson Royal 🟨,
- 83', Thiago Mendes ↓, JP ↑,
- 83', Coutinho ↓, David ↑,
- 84', Pulgar E. 🟨,
- 87', Pulgar E. ↓, Leo Ortiz ↑,
Chances of winning
Flamengo
52.4% | Draw
27.2% | Vasco da Gama
20.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Flamengo's form might have worsened.Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+13%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flamengo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Flamengo - Vasco da Gama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↑
(1.45) |
3.39 ↓
(4.07) |
4.53 ↓
(6.98) |
8.4%
(7.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Flamengo - Vasco da Gama?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Vasco will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 50.8% – 88.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 9 - 60%). Vasco (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Flamengo (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Flamengo (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Vasco (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.
- Recent form of Flamengo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Vasco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Flamengo is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:14. (average 1.7:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.5:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Flamengo won against Vasco da Gama?
Flamengo has won 8 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Flamengo?
Vasco da Gama has won 1 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Flamengo - Vasco da Gama were as follows:
21.09.2025
Flamengo
-
Vasco da Gama
1:1
19.04.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Flamengo
0:0
08.03.2025
Flamengo
-
Vasco da Gama
2:1
01.03.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Flamengo
0:1
15.02.2025
Flamengo
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
Latest results of Flamengo
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 3 : 0 |
Final
