Result
1:1
05/02/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 2
- Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 2.02 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (297/354) | 88% (453/512) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 2.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.72 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (297/354) | 88% (453/512) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (28/46) | 43% (19/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (69/100) | 84% (108/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (5/20) | 18% (2/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.41 | 1.53 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (7/14) | 53% (9/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.72 | 0.59 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.28 | -0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 20', 0 - 1, John Kennedy ⚽, Nonato (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 53', Nonato 🟨,
- 60', Nonato ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
- 62', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
- 62', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
- 62', Erick Pulga ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
- 67', Jemmes 🟨,
- 69', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 1, Olivera C. ⚽, Sanabria M. (A),
- 80', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 80', Serna K. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
- 81', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
- 89', Dell 🟥,
- 89', Rene ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
- 90', Martinelli ↓, Lima ↑,
- 90', Lima 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia
44.7% | Draw
28.7% | Fluminense
26.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Bahia - Fluminense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.14 ↓
(2.27) |
3.3 ↑
(3.11) |
3.57 ↑
(3.32) |
5.1%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bahia - Fluminense?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 50.6% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Fluminense (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bahia will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fluminense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.
- Bahia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Fluminense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Bahia will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Michel Araujo
(Red Card)
Ruan Pablo
(Inactive)
Sanabria M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fluminense: Cano G.
(Inactive)
Hercules
(Inactive)
Soteldo Y.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Jean Lucas
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Fluminense?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Bahia?
Fluminense has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Fluminense were as follows:
07.12.2025
Fluminense
-
Bahia
2:0
10.09.2025
Fluminense
-
Bahia
2:0
28.08.2025
Bahia
-
Fluminense
1:0
09.08.2025
Bahia
-
Fluminense
3:3
04.08.2024
Fluminense
-
Bahia
1:0
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
