Result
3:2
18/03/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports Player |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.73 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (340/401) | 85% (324/382) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.90 | 1.24 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (340/401) | 85% (324/382) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (23/45) | 42% (15/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (119/148) | 74% (53/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (5/24) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.62 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 75% (12/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.24 | 2.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.76 | -0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 1', 0 - 1, Canobbio A. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
- 42', Saldivia A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Martinelli ↓, Otavio ↑,
- 46', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 46', Hugo Moura ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 50', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
- 54', 0 - 2, Hercules ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
- 59', 1 - 2, Moreira N. ⚽,
- 69', John Kennedy ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
- 69', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 69', Andres Gomez ↓, Adson ↑,
- 69', David ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
- 80', Moreira N. ↓, Brenner ↑,
- 80', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
- 80', Savarino J. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
- 88', 2 - 2, Spinelli C. ⚽, Cuiabano (A),
- 90+5', 3 - 2, Thiago Mendes ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
25.8% | Draw
30.3% | Fluminense
43.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Vasco da Gama - Fluminense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.66 ↑
(3.16) |
3.13 ↓
(3.26) |
2.17 ↓
(2.25) |
5.3%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Fluminense?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Fluminense will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 56.3% – 96.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Vasco: Cauan Barros
(Red Card)
Jair
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fluminense: Bernal F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Vasco: Mateus Carvalho
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Fluminense: Cano G.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Fluminense?
Vasco da Gama has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Vasco da Gama?
Fluminense has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Fluminense were as follows:
01.03.2026
Fluminense
-
Vasco da Gama
1:1
22.02.2026
Vasco da Gama
-
Fluminense
0:1
14.12.2025
Fluminense
-
Vasco da Gama
1:1
11.12.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Fluminense
2:1
20.10.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Fluminense
2:0
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Bahia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gremio | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Vasco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Santos | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Chapecoense-SC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | Remo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
