Result
4:2
21/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 8
- Referee: Villa Zapata J. A. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.33 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (358/411) | 78% (226/291) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.36 | 1.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (358/411) | 78% (226/291) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (30/52) | 45% (23/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (104/135) | 53% (43/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 6% (1/16) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 29 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.20 | 3.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.80 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', Pernia M. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
- 10', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Moreno D. (A),
- 17', 1 - 1, Amaya A. ⚽, Arroyo A. (A),
- 20', Arroyo A. 🟨,
- 27', Cardona J. 🟨,
- 36', Mejia R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Mejia R. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
- 47', 2 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
- 52', Quinones J. 🟨,
- 56', Barrios M. 🟨,
- 57', 2 - 2, Arroyo A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 59', Castano J. 🟨,
- 60', Barrios M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
- 67', Amaya A. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
- 67', Balanta Carabali K. A. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
- 67', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
- 75', 3 - 2, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
- 78', Sanchez L. ↓, Rojas T. ↑,
- 79', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
- 80', Diaz Y. ↓, Orozco C. ↑,
- 86', 4 - 2, Quinones D. ⚽,
- 89', Moreno D. ↓, Roa A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Once Caldas
50.5% | Draw
28.5% | Fortaleza CEIF
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Once Caldas's form might have worsened.Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+7.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↑
(1.67) |
3.28 ↓
(3.55) |
4.49 ↓
(5.27) |
6.9%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Once Caldas will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- In this match, Once Caldas is a strong favorite.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Fortaleza CEIF?
Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza CEIF won against Once Caldas?
Fortaleza CEIF has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF were as follows:
20.07.2025
Fortaleza CEIF
-
Once Caldas
2:1
01.02.2025
Once Caldas
-
Fortaleza CEIF
2:1
01.11.2024
Once Caldas
-
Fortaleza CEIF
0:2
25.04.2024
Once Caldas
-
Fortaleza CEIF
0:1
13.04.2024
Fortaleza CEIF
-
Once Caldas
2:0
Latest results of Once Caldas
Latest results of Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Atl. Nacional | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15:4 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:10 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Junior | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12:10 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Aguilas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fortaleza | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:13 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Millonarios | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Ind. Medellin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cucuta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Pereira | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 4 |
| 19 | Chico | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:13 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Alianza | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3:14 | -11 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
