Fluminense vs Fortaleza – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fluminense - Fortaleza
Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 20
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.95
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
26
Passes
81% (319/393)86% (445/515)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
0.921.95
xG on target (xGOT)
1.732.45
Total shots
1012
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
43
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
78
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
26
Touches in opposition box
2327
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
178
Passes
81% (319/393)86% (445/515)
Long passes
50% (24/48)58% (34/59)
Passes in final third
66% (55/83)73% (102/140)
Crosses
22% (2/9)26% (6/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.771.41
Throw-ins
1523
Fouls
1018
Tackles
85% (11/13)67% (6/9)
Duels won
4637
Clearances
2412
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
2.451.73
Goals prevented
1.45-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Cano G. , Serna K. (A),
  • 24', Keno , Canobbio A. ,
  • 43', Andrade K. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Britez E. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
  • 45+5', Martinelli 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Andrade K. , Lucca Prior ,
  • 55', Bernal F. 🟨,
  • 57', Lucero J. 🟨,
  • 63', Herrera J. , Breno Lopes ,
  • 63', Lucero J. , Deyverson ,
  • 64', 2 - 0, Canobbio A. , Serna K. (A),
  • 67', Martinelli , Hercules ,
  • 73', Yago Pikachu , Allanzinho ,
  • 73', 2 - 1, Breno Lopes , Allanzinho (A),
  • 80', PH Ganso , Lima ,
  • 80', Cano G. , Everaldo ,
  • 86', Matheus Rossetto , Bareiro A. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
54.5%
Draw
26.8%
Fortaleza
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.2% 28.5% 20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2% 28% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
  • Fluminense - Fortaleza Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.75
    (1.83)
    3.54
    (3.3)
    5.02
    (4.62)
    5.3%
    (6.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fluminense - Fortaleza?
  • Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 68.42%98.24%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.
    • Fluminense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Fortaleza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Fluminense is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Freytes J. (Red Card) Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Ignacio (Knee Injury) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury) Thiago Silva (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Gustavo Mancha (Red Card) Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Soteldo Y. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pereira M. (Inactive)
    • We predict that Fluminense will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.1:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Fortaleza were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Fortaleza - Fluminense 2:0
    22.11.2024 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:2
    07.07.2024 Fortaleza - Fluminense 1:0
    03.09.2023 Fluminense - Fortaleza 1:0
    10.09.2022 Fluminense - Fortaleza 2:1
    Latest results of Fluminense
    09.08.2025 Bahia - Fluminense 3:3
    02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    09.08.2025 Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ 0:5
    03.08.2025 Corinthians - Fortaleza 1:1
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet