Holstein Kiel vs Freiburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:2
10/05/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 33
  • Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sport 3
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports Extra 2
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
japanJapanSKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 4
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 9
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV3
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.941.57
Ball Possession
60%40%
Total shots
159
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
82% (381/467)76% (234/306)
Yellow Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.941.57
xG on target (xGOT)
0.461.25
Total shots
159
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
83
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
69
Shots outside the Box
90
Hit the Woodwork
02
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
2630
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
139
Passes
82% (381/467)76% (234/306)
Long passes
42% (21/50)43% (25/58)
Passes in final third
61% (59/97)70% (85/121)
Crosses
25% (6/24)19% (5/26)
Expected assists (xA)
1.270.74
Throw-ins
2616
Fouls
913
Tackles
56% (5/9)42% (5/12)
Duels won
4849
Clearances
4751
Interceptions
09
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.250.46
Goals prevented
-0.75-0.54

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Rosenboom L. , Machino S. (A),
  • 45+2', 1 - 1, Manzambi J. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Manzambi J. , Holer L. ,
  • 58', 1 - 2, Holer L. , Grifo V. (A),
  • 61', Rosenboom L. , Harres P. ,
  • 67', Gigovic A. 🟨,
  • 71', Tolkin J. , Porath F. ,
  • 76', Grifo V. , Gunter C. ,
  • 76', Rosenfelder M. , Kubler L. ,
  • 78', Gigovic A. , Holtby L. ,
  • 79', Johansson C. , Pichler B. ,
  • 90+6', Doan R. , Hofler N. ,
  • 90+6', Adamu J. , Sildillia K. ,

Chances of winning


Holstein Kiel
27.5%
Draw
25.2%
Freiburg
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
29.5% 25.4% 45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7% 25.6% 44.8%

Holstein Kiel - Freiburg Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
3.48
(3.26)
3.81
(3.79)
2.04
(2.13)
4.1%
(4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel - Freiburg?
  • Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 80.53%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Freiburg will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • Holstein Kiel has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Freiburg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Thigh Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Komenda M. (Thigh Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury) Remberg N. (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Ogbus B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Machino S. (Injury)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
    • Including home match between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Holstein Kiel - Freiburg were as follows:
    11.01.2025 Freiburg - Holstein Kiel 3:2
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    Latest results of Freiburg
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich13121049:94037
    2RB Leipzig1392228:131529
    3Dortmund1384123:111228
    4Bayer Leverkusen1372428:19923
    5Hoffenheim1372425:19623
    6Stuttgart1371521:22-122
    7Eintracht Frankfurt1363428:29-121
    8FC Koln1344522:21116
    9Freiburg1344520:22-216
    10B. Monchengladbach1344517:19-216
    11Werder Bremen1344518:24-616
    12Union Berlin1343616:22-615
    13Hamburger SV1343614:20-615
    14Augsburg1341817:27-1013
    15Wolfsburg1333717:23-612
    16Heidenheim1332812:28-1611
    17St. Pauli1322911:25-148
    18Mainz1313911:24-136

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga