Holstein Kiel vs Freiburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/05/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Holstein-Stadion (Kiel).

Bundesliga - Round 33
Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	1.57
Ball Possession
60%	40%
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
3	4
Big Chances
1	4
Corner Kicks
2	5
Passes
82% (381/467)	76% (234/306)
Yellow Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	1.57
xG on target (xGOT)
0.46	1.25
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
3	4
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
6	9
Shots outside the Box
9	0
Hit the Woodwork
0	2
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
1	4
Corner Kicks
2	5
Touches in opposition box
26	30
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	9
Passes
82% (381/467)	76% (234/306)
Long passes
42% (21/50)	43% (25/58)
Passes in final third
61% (59/97)	70% (85/121)
Crosses
25% (6/24)	19% (5/26)
Expected assists (xA)
1.27	0.74
Throw-ins
26	16
Fouls
9	13
Tackles
56% (5/9)	42% (5/12)
Duels won
48	49
Clearances
47	51
Interceptions
0	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
1.25	0.46
Goals prevented
-0.75	-0.54

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Rosenboom L. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Manzambi J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Holer L. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
61', Rosenboom L. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
67', Gigovic A. 🟨,
71', Tolkin J. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
76', Grifo V. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
76', Rosenfelder M. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
78', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
79', Johansson C. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
90+6', Doan R. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
90+6', Adamu J. ↓, Sildillia K. ↑,

Chances of winning

Holstein Kiel
27.5%

Draw
25.2%

Freiburg
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

25.4%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

25.6%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Holstein Kiel - Freiburg Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.26)	3.81 ↑ (3.79)	2.04 ↓ (2.13)	4.1% (4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel - Freiburg?

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.53% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Freiburg will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Holstein Kiel has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Freiburg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Thigh Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Komenda M. (Thigh Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury) Remberg N. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Ogbus B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Machino S. (Injury)
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
Including home match between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

How many head-to-head matches has Holstein Kiel won against Freiburg?

Holstein Kiel has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Freiburg won against Holstein Kiel?

Freiburg has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Holstein Kiel - Freiburg were as follows:

11.01.2025 Freiburg - Holstein Kiel 3:2

Latest results of Holstein Kiel

04.05.2025 Augsburg - Holstein Kiel 1:3 ✺

26.04.2025 Holstein Kiel - Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:3 ✺

19.04.2025 RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺

05.04.2025 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Freiburg

04.05.2025 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Wolfsburg - Freiburg 0:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Freiburg - Hoffenheim 3:2 ✺

12.04.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg 1:2 ✺

05.04.2025 Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:4 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	B. Monchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	FC Koln	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	St. Pauli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga