Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
1:3
04/05/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 32
  • Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+, ESPN Premium
chinaChinaMigu, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 5
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
greeceGreeceNova Sports Start
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4, Net4+
icelandIcelandViaplay, Vodafone Sport
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaiNews, RCTI+, Vidio
japanJapanSKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 4
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Viaplay
portugalPortugalDAZN 3
romaniaRomaniaOrange TV Go, Prima Sport PPV 1
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 9, SportKlub 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamK+, ON Plus, TV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.192.15
Ball Possession
72%28%
Total shots
277
Shots on target
105
Big Chances
55
Corner Kicks
110
Passes
88% (517/590)71% (168/236)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
3.192.15
xG on target (xGOT)
3.132.50
Total shots
277
Shots on target
105
Shots off target
111
Blocked Shots
61
Shots inside the Box
166
Shots outside the Box
111
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
55
Corner Kicks
110
Touches in opposition box
478
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
204
Passes
88% (517/590)71% (168/236)
Long passes
65% (35/54)33% (15/46)
Passes in final third
79% (186/235)38% (15/39)
Crosses
37% (16/43)0% (0/4)
Expected assists (xA)
2.350.53
Throw-ins
4422
Fouls
420
Tackles
64% (7/11)68% (17/25)
Duels won
6050
Clearances
752
Interceptions
913
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
29
xGOT faced
2.503.13
Goals prevented
-0.502.13

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 25', 0 - 1, Machino S. (Pen),
  • 39', Machino S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
  • 40', 0 - 2, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 51', 0 - 3, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Skrzybski S. (A),
  • 53', Zesiger C. ↓, Tietz P. ↑,
  • 54', Wolf M. ↓, Koudossou H. ↑,
  • 56', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
  • 63', Komur M. ↓, Maier A. ↑,
  • 63', Essende S. ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
  • 74', Gigovic A. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
  • 74', Skrzybski S. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
  • 79', Onyeka F. ↓, Rexhbecaj E. ↑,
  • 85', Arp J.-F. 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 3, Mounie S. ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
  • 90+4', Remberg N. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Augsburg
52.3%		Draw
25%		Holstein Kiel
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.8% 23.8% 20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4% 23.1% 19.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Augsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
    •

    Augsburg - Holstein Kiel Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.84 ↑
    (1.72)    		 3.87 ↓
    (4.04)    		 4.22 ↓
    (4.73)    		 4%
    (3.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Augsburg - Holstein Kiel?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 53.9% – 93.5%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 2 - 40%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 3 - 60%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DC - Holstein Kiel (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0, 1st Half - Augsburg (1.46) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Augsburg (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Augsburg (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Augsburg (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Augsburg (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Holstein Kiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Augsburg is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Augsburg: Banks N. (Muscle Injury) Berisha M. (Injury) Kabadayi Y. (Knee Injury) Kucuksahin M. (Injury) Oxford R. (Lacking Match Fitness)
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Ivezic M. (Yellow Cards) Kelati A. Y. (Thigh Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Komenda M. (Thigh Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Augsburg - Holstein Kiel were as follows:
    21.12.2024 Holstein Kiel - Augsburg 5:1
    Latest results of Augsburg
    26.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg 2:0 ✺
    20.04.2025 Augsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt 0:0 ✺
    12.04.2025 Bochum - Augsburg 1:2 ✺
    04.04.2025 Augsburg - Bayern Munich 1:3 ✺
    29.03.2025 Hoffenheim - Augsburg 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    26.04.2025 Holstein Kiel - Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:3 ✺
    19.04.2025 RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    12.04.2025 Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺
    05.04.2025 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    29.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Werder Bremen 0:3 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich ✔ 292441105:277876
    2Dortmund29197360:293164
    3Stuttgart29175760:382256
    4RB Leipzig29175756:362056
    5Bayer Leverkusen29157759:392052
    6Hoffenheim29156857:431451
    7Eintracht Frankfurt29119954:54042
    8Freiburg291171142:47-540
    9Mainz29891235:44-933
    10Augsburg29961436:53-1733
    11Union Berlin29881333:50-1732
    12Hamburger SV297101232:45-1331
    13FC Koln29791343:50-730
    14B. Monchengladbach29791335:49-1430
    15Werder Bremen29771532:52-2028
    16St. Pauli29671625:50-2525
    17Wolfsburg29561839:65-2621
    18Heidenheim29471832:64-3219

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Clinched Spots for Teams
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