Result
2:1
05/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Jupiler Pro League - Round 10
- Referee: Ledda M. (Bel)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.76 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (492/576) | 72% (211/293) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 2.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (492/576) | 72% (211/293) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 73% (53/73) | 46% (26/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (160/202) | 67% (66/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (9/30) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 2.49 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.32 | 1.68 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.32 | -0.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Nsimba B. ⚽,
- 13', Fredrick B. 🟨,
- 42', Nsimba B. 🟨,
- 45', 1 - 1, Heynen B. ⚽, Steuckers J. (A),
- 45+2', Viltard M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Fredrick B. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
- 55', Viltard M. 🟨,
- 61', De Fougerolles L. 🟨,
- 62', Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
- 62', Karetsas K. ↓, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↑,
- 63', Erabi J. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
- 63', Berte M. ↓, Toshevski D. ↑,
- 63', Nsimba B. ↓, Rodes N. ↑,
- 67', Smets M. 🟨,
- 69', De Fougerolles L. ↓, Goncalves B. ↑,
- 72', Steuckers J. ↓, Ito J. ↑,
- 78', Kvet R. ↓, Oratmangoen R. ↑,
- 83', 2 - 1, Nkuba K. ⚽, Sor Y. (A),
- 90+1', Hrosovsky P. ↓, Sattlberger N. ↑,
- 90+2', Toshevski D. 🟥,
- 90+5', Sattlberger N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Genk
68.5% | Draw
19.1% | Dender EH
12.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Genk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-2%)
Genk - Dender EH Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↑
(1.3) |
4.91 ↓
(5.75) |
7.82 ↓
(8.78) |
4.8%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Genk - Dender EH?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Dender EH will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 59% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: ) and 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).
- Recent performances by Genk have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Dender EH is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Dender EH may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Genk is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Genk: Heymans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Lawal T.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Dender EH: Dion M. S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Genk: El Ouahdi Z.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Genk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
- Including home match between the teams, Genk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Genk won against Dender EH?
Genk has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Dender EH won against Genk?
Dender EH has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Genk - Dender EH were as follows:
08.03.2025
Dender EH
-
Genk
0:1
22.09.2024
Genk
-
Dender EH
4:0
Latest results of Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Royale Union SG | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19:5 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Anderlecht | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15:9 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Gent | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | St. Truiden | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | KV Mechelen | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13:11 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Waregem | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:20 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13:14 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | RAAL La Louviere | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | St. Liege | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Cercle Brugge KSV | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:14 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Leuven | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | -11 | 8 |
| 16 | Dender | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3:15 | -12 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: )
Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )
