Cruzeiro vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Cruzeiro - Grêmio
Result
4:1
13/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 13
  • Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.440.72
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
92
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
63
Passes
83% (302/362)84% (364/431)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
2.440.72
xG on target (xGOT)
4.141.17
Total shots
1711
Shots on target
92
Shots off target
57
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
116
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
63
Touches in opposition box
2211
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1014
Passes
83% (302/362)84% (364/431)
Long passes
45% (20/44)54% (26/48)
Passes in final third
72% (76/106)72% (52/72)
Crosses
27% (4/15)41% (7/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.430.55
Throw-ins
1916
Fouls
1410
Tackles
67% (12/18)50% (7/14)
Duels won
3842
Clearances
1719
Interceptions
87
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
1.174.14
Goals prevented
0.170.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 8', Kaiki 🟨,
  • 21', William Furtado , Fagner ,
  • 25', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge , Matheus Pereira (A),
  • 33', 2 - 0, Villalba L. , Christian (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Gustavo Martins , Igor Serrote ,
  • 46', Amuzu F. , Aravena A. ,
  • 52', Alex Santana 🟨,
  • 54', 3 - 0, Kaio Jorge , Matheus Pereira (A),
  • 56', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
  • 60', Arezo M. , Andre Henrique ,
  • 60', Cristaldo F. , Edenilson ,
  • 64', 3 - 1, Andre Henrique , Edenilson (A),
  • 66', Christian 🟨,
  • 77', 4 - 1, Kaio Jorge , Romero L. (A),
  • 79', Kaio Jorge , Gabriel Barbosa ,
  • 79', Wanderson , Marquinhos ,
  • 79', Alysson , Monsalve M. ,
  • 83', Lucas Silva 🟨,
  • 83', Romero L. , Walace ,
  • 84', Matheus Pereira , Bolasie Y. ,
  • 90+3', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,

Chances of winning


Cruzeiro
58.7%
Draw
26.2%
Grêmio
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.7% 26.8% 18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5% 28.2% 17.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
  • Cruzeiro - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.62
    (1.74)
    3.62
    (3.55)
    6.28
    (5.13)
    5.3%
    (5.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Cruzeiro - Grêmio?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 73.2%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cruzeiro will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1.
    • Cruzeiro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Grêmio is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Cruzeiro is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Cruzeiro: Janderson (Knee Injury) Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Olivera C. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro - Grêmio were as follows:
    27.11.2024 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 1:1
    10.07.2024 Grêmio - Cruzeiro 0:2
    27.08.2023 Grêmio - Cruzeiro 3:0
    31.05.2023 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 0:1
    17.05.2023 Grêmio - Cruzeiro 1:1
    Latest results of Cruzeiro
    06.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Banfield 1:0
    01.06.2025 Cruzeiro - Palmeiras 2:1
    28.05.2025 Cruzeiro - Unión Santa Fe 0:0
    Latest results of Grêmio
    12.06.2025 Grêmio - Corinthians 1:1
    01.06.2025 Juventude - Grêmio 0:2
    25.05.2025 Grêmio - Bahia 1:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1685320:13729
    5Mirassol1677227:161128
    6Bragantino1783620:20027
    7Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    8Fluminense1672718:20-223
    9Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    10Ceara1663716:16021
    11Internacional1656517:20-321
    12Corinthians1756616:20-421
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1755716:23-720
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1643918:23-515
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1606109:25-166

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet