Result
4:1
13/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 13
- Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.44 | 0.72 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (302/362) | 84% (364/431) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.44 | 0.72 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.14 | 1.17 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (302/362) | 84% (364/431) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (20/44) | 54% (26/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (76/106) | 72% (52/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 41% (7/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (12/18) | 50% (7/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.17 | 4.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 8', Kaiki 🟨,
- 21', William Furtado ↓, Fagner ↑,
- 25', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
- 33', 2 - 0, Villalba L. ⚽, Christian (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Gustavo Martins ↓, Igor Serrote ↑,
- 46', Amuzu F. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 52', Alex Santana 🟨,
- 54', 3 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
- 56', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
- 60', Arezo M. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 60', Cristaldo F. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 64', 3 - 1, Andre Henrique ⚽, Edenilson (A),
- 66', Christian 🟨,
- 77', 4 - 1, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Romero L. (A),
- 79', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
- 79', Wanderson ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
- 79', Alysson ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
- 83', Lucas Silva 🟨,
- 83', Romero L. ↓, Walace ↑,
- 84', Matheus Pereira ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
- 90+3', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
Chances of winning
Cruzeiro
58.7% | Draw
26.2% | Grêmio
15.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
Cruzeiro - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.62 ↓
(1.74) |
3.62 ↑
(3.55) |
6.28 ↑
(5.13) |
5.3%
(5.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro - Grêmio?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Cruzeiro will win
(20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cruzeiro will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1.
- Cruzeiro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Grêmio is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- In this match, Cruzeiro is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Cruzeiro: Janderson
(Knee Injury)
Joao Marcelo
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Henrique
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Olivera C.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Cruzeiro won against Grêmio?
Cruzeiro has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Cruzeiro?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro - Grêmio were as follows:
27.11.2024
Cruzeiro
-
Grêmio
1:1
10.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Cruzeiro
0:2
27.08.2023
Grêmio
-
Cruzeiro
3:0
31.05.2023
Cruzeiro
-
Grêmio
0:1
17.05.2023
Grêmio
-
Cruzeiro
1:1
Latest results of Cruzeiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
