Fluminense vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fluminense - Grêmio
Result
1:0
02/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 18
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.600.38
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
99
Shots on target
10
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
82% (369/449)79% (282/359)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
1.600.38
xG on target (xGOT)
0.910.00
Total shots
99
Shots on target
10
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
64
Shots outside the Box
35
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2219
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1611
Passes
82% (369/449)79% (282/359)
Long passes
52% (25/48)53% (29/55)
Passes in final third
70% (99/142)67% (45/67)
Crosses
23% (3/13)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.880.62
Throw-ins
1617
Fouls
1116
Tackles
70% (14/20)61% (14/23)
Duels won
6852
Clearances
1525
Interceptions
124
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
00
xGOT faced
0.000.91
Goals prevented
0.00-0.09

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 38', Lucas Esteves 🟨,
  • 44', 1 - 0, Everaldo , Guga (A),
  • 45+3', Joao Lucas 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Villasanti M. , Edenilson ,
  • 46', Joao Lucas , Camilo Reijers ,
  • 46', Hercules , Thiago Santos ,
  • 66', Keno , Canobbio A. ,
  • 66', PH Ganso , Lima ,
  • 66', Freitas dos Santos R. , Aravena A. ,
  • 67', Pavon C. , Cristaldo F. ,
  • 76', Everaldo (Pen),
  • 83', Everaldo , Cano G. ,
  • 83', Serna K. , Riquelme Felipe ,
  • 84', Alysson , Jardiel ,
  • 86', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
  • 90+4', Walter Kannemann 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
51%
Draw
28.4%
Grêmio
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.7% 27.8% 22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4% 28% 22.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
  • Fluminense - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.85
    (1.9)
    3.34
    (3.4)
    4.61
    (4.18)
    5.7%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Fluminense - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 28.1%78.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.
    • Recent form of Fluminense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • In recent matches, Grêmio has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Fluminense is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Freytes J. (Yellow Cards) Ignacio (Knee Injury) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Carlos Vinicius (Inactive) Cuellar G. (Thigh Injury) Fabian Balbuena (Inactive) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Marlon (Yellow Cards) Olivera C. (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Rene (Achilles Tendon Injury) Serna K. (Injury) Soteldo Y. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Gustavo Martins (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 19:30. (average 1:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Grêmio were as follows:
    01.11.2024 Fluminense - Grêmio 2:2
    20.08.2024 Fluminense - Grêmio 3:1
    13.08.2024 Grêmio - Fluminense 2:1
    30.06.2024 Grêmio - Fluminense 1:0
    06.12.2023 Fluminense - Grêmio 2:3
    Latest results of Fluminense
    27.07.2025 São Paulo - Fluminense 3:1
    23.07.2025 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:2
    20.07.2025 Flamengo - Fluminense 1:0
    17.07.2025 Fluminense - Cruzeiro 0:2
    Latest results of Grêmio
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    26.07.2025 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    24.07.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Postponed
    23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1
    19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
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          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet