Result
2:1
28/01/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 1.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (415/490) | 82% (367/448) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 0.78 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (415/490) | 82% (367/448) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (21/34) | 50% (32/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (95/127) | 72% (103/144) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (1/8) | 30% (6/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.85 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (8/17) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.78 | 2.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.22 | 0.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 40', Nonato 🟨,
- 45+2', Dodi 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Joao Pedro ↓, Marcos Rocha ↑,
- 47', 1 - 0, Nonato ⚽,
- 60', 2 - 0, Acosta L. ⚽, Rene (A),
- 60', Amuzu F. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 61', Dodi ↓, Willian ↑,
- 74', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
- 75', 2 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Gustavo Martins (A),
- 78', Acosta L. ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
- 78', Nonato ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 79', Serna K. ↓, Savarino J. ↑,
- 86', Canobbio A. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
- 86', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
Chances of winning
Fluminense
59.8% | Draw
23.8% | Grêmio
16.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Fluminense - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.59 ↓
(1.79) |
3.97 ↑
(3.36) |
5.71 ↑
(4.68) |
5.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Fluminense - Grêmio?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Fluminense will win
(14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, Fluminense is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Fluminense: Savarino J.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Fluminense: Canobbio A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Grêmio?
Fluminense has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Fluminense?
Grêmio has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Grêmio were as follows:
02.12.2025
Grêmio
-
Fluminense
1:2
02.08.2025
Fluminense
-
Grêmio
1:0
01.11.2024
Fluminense
-
Grêmio
2:2
20.08.2024
Fluminense
-
Grêmio
3:1
13.08.2024
Grêmio
-
Fluminense
2:1
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Corinthians | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gremio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Remo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Vasco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Internacional | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
