Result
2:1
29/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 14
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.54 | 1.48 |
Ball Possession |
---|
41% | 59% |
Total shots |
---|
10 | 11 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
77% (271/353) | 84% (424/504) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 6 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.54 | 1.48 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.97 | 2.20 |
Total shots |
---|
10 | 11 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 5 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
2 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
2 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
17 | 17 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
26 | 24 |
Passes |
---|
77% (271/353) | 84% (424/504) |
Long passes |
---|
50% (27/54) | 54% (29/54) |
Passes in final third |
---|
64% (35/55) | 69% (74/107) |
Crosses |
---|
43% (3/7) | 5% (1/20) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.45 | 0.28 |
Throw-ins |
---|
18 | 13 |
Fouls |
---|
24 | 26 |
Tackles |
---|
53% (9/17) | 70% (14/20) |
Duels won |
---|
74 | 58 |
Clearances |
---|
23 | 11 |
Interceptions |
---|
12 | 7 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
2.20 | 1.97 |
Goals prevented |
---|
1.20 | -0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', Magrao 🟨,
- 12', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 17', 2 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 18', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
- 24', 2 - 1, Deyverson ⚽,
- 45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
- 45+6', Alysson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 54', Gustavo Martins ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 56', Deyverson 🟨,
- 62', Herrera J. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
- 62', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
- 66', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 67', Lucca Prior 🟨,
- 74', Marinho 🟨,
- 76', Lucca Prior ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 83', Alysson ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 85', Mancuso E. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
- 85', Deyverson ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 87', Olivera C. 🟨,
- 88', Marlon 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio 50.8% | Draw 28.1% | Fortaleza 21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Grêmio - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.98 ↓ (2.28) |
3.59 ↑ (3.26) |
4.83 ↑ (3.18) |
-0.8% (6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
Grêmio will win
(13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.
- Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Fortaleza is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Grêmio will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.7:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Fortaleza?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Grêmio?
Fortaleza has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Fortaleza were as follows:
04.10.2024
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
3:1
19.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:0
30.09.2023
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:1
14.05.2023
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 31:7 | 24 | 37 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 37 |
3 | Palmeiras | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 21:14 | 7 | 33 |
4 | Bahia | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Mirassol | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27:16 | 11 | 28 |
6 | Bragantino | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 27 |
7 | Botafogo RJ | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18:10 | 8 | 26 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 20:20 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Fluminense | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18:20 | -2 | 23 |
10 | Atletico-MG | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18:17 | 1 | 23 |
11 | Ceara | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 22 |
12 | Corinthians | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17:21 | -4 | 22 |
13 | Internacional | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 21 |
14 | Gremio | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 18 |
16 | Vasco | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18:23 | -5 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18:24 | -6 | 15 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 16 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet