Result
2:1
29/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 14
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.54 | 1.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/353) | 84% (424/504) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.54 | 1.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.97 | 2.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 26 | 24 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/353) | 84% (424/504) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (27/54) | 54% (29/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (35/55) | 69% (74/107) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 5% (1/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 0.28 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (9/17) | 70% (14/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 74 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.20 | 1.97 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.20 | -0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', Magrao 🟨,
- 12', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 17', 2 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 18', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
- 24', 2 - 1, Deyverson ⚽,
- 45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
- 45+6', Alysson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 54', Gustavo Martins ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 56', Deyverson 🟨,
- 62', Herrera J. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
- 62', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
- 66', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 67', Lucca Prior 🟨,
- 74', Marinho 🟨,
- 76', Lucca Prior ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 83', Alysson ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 85', Mancuso E. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
- 85', Deyverson ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 87', Olivera C. 🟨,
- 88', Marlon 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
50.8% | Draw
28.1% | Fortaleza
21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Grêmio - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.98 ↓
(2.28) |
3.59 ↑
(3.26) |
4.83 ↑
(3.18) |
-0.8%
(6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
Grêmio will win
(13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.
- Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Fortaleza is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Grêmio will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.7:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Fortaleza?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Grêmio?
Fortaleza has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Fortaleza were as follows:
04.10.2024
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
3:1
19.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:0
30.09.2023
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:1
14.05.2023
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 34:15 | 19 | 41 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 4 | Bahia | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 27:17 | 10 | 36 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26:12 | 14 | 32 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 30:19 | 11 | 32 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26:22 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 26:28 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Fluminense | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 25:28 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 22:27 | -5 | 25 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 24 |
| 13 | Internacional | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 24 |
| 14 | Gremio | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 24 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20:31 | -11 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 27:29 | -2 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 18:41 | -23 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19:32 | -13 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
