Result
2:2
09/11/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 33
- Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.31 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (332/389) | 85% (284/333) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 1.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (332/389) | 85% (284/333) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (19/39) | 44% (18/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (103/137) | 77% (55/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (3/18) | 30% (6/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.54 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 55% (6/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.96 | 1.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.04 | -0.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 5', 1 - 0, Bareiro A. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
- 9', Britez E. 🟨,
- 14', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
- 32', 1 - 2, Marlon ⚽, Carlos Vinicius (A),
- 44', Noriega E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Lucas Sasha ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
- 46', Pochettino T. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
- 46', Lucas Crispim ↓, Moises ↑,
- 59', Cuellar G. 🟨,
- 62', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 62', Alysson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 62', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
- 64', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
- 65', 2 - 2, Pereira M. ⚽,
- 68', Cuellar G. ↓, Dodi ↑,
- 71', Edenilson 🟨,
- 79', Amuzu F. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 79', Edenilson ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 82', Pierre ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
- 83', Matheus Rossetto 🟨,
- 89', Breno Lopes ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 90+3', Bareiro A. 🟨,
- 90+10', Pereira M. 🟥,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza
46.3% | Draw
27.9% | Grêmio
25.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Fortaleza - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.06 ↓
(2.11) |
3.41 ↑
(3.31) |
3.67 ↑
(3.51) |
5.2%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Grêmio?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
Users Predictions:
Fortaleza will win
(9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Fortaleza is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Allanzinho
(Inactive)
Benevenuto
(Hamstring Injury)
Joao Ricardo
(Shoulder Injury)
Rodrigo
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
Willian
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bareiro A.
(Injury)
Marinho
(Ankle Injury)
Moises
(Injury)
Weverson
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Marcos Rocha
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.7:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Grêmio?
Fortaleza has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Fortaleza?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Grêmio were as follows:
29.07.2025
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
2:1
04.10.2024
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
3:1
19.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:0
30.09.2023
Fortaleza
-
Grêmio
1:1
14.05.2023
Grêmio
-
Fortaleza
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ ✔ | 33 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 69:21 | 48 | 71 |
| 2 | Palmeiras ✔ | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 58:28 | 30 | 68 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 46:22 | 24 | 64 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 54:33 | 21 | 59 |
| 5 | Bahia | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 44:40 | 4 | 53 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 44:28 | 16 | 52 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 38:37 | 1 | 51 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 37:36 | 1 | 45 |
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 37:37 | 0 | 44 |
| 10 | Vasco | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 50:49 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 38:50 | -12 | 42 |
| 12 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 31:30 | 1 | 42 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35:38 | -3 | 42 |
| 14 | Gremio | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 40 |
| 15 | Internacional | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37:46 | -9 | 37 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 29:47 | -18 | 35 |
| 17 | Santos | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 33 |
| 18 | Juventude | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 29:59 | -30 | 32 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 34:51 | -17 | 31 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 33 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 25:60 | -35 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
Clinched Spots for Teams
Flamengo RJ is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
Palmeiras is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
