Grêmio vs Fortaleza – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Grêmio - Fortaleza
Result
2:1
29/07/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 14

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.541.48
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
1011
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
77% (271/353)84% (424/504)
Yellow Cards
36
Expected Goals (xG)
2.541.48
xG on target (xGOT)
1.972.20
Total shots
1011
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
23
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
26
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
1717
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
2624
Passes
77% (271/353)84% (424/504)
Long passes
50% (27/54)54% (29/54)
Passes in final third
64% (35/55)69% (74/107)
Crosses
43% (3/7)5% (1/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.450.28
Throw-ins
1813
Fouls
2426
Tackles
53% (9/17)70% (14/20)
Duels won
7458
Clearances
2311
Interceptions
127
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
2.201.97
Goals prevented
1.20-0.03

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 9', Magrao 🟨,
  • 12', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
  • 17', 2 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
  • 18', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
  • 24', 2 - 1, Deyverson ,
  • 45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
  • 45+6', Alysson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 54', Gustavo Martins , Camilo Reijers ,
  • 56', Deyverson 🟨,
  • 62', Herrera J. , Lucero J. ,
  • 62', Bruno Pacheco , Diogo Barbosa ,
  • 66', Freitas dos Santos R. , Pavon C. ,
  • 67', Lucca Prior 🟨,
  • 74', Marinho 🟨,
  • 76', Lucca Prior , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 83', Alysson , Edenilson ,
  • 85', Mancuso E. , Emmanuel Martinez ,
  • 85', Deyverson , Bareiro A. ,
  • 87', Olivera C. 🟨,
  • 88', Marlon 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Grêmio
50.8%
Draw
28.1%
Fortaleza
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.4% 28.9% 29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3% 28.3% 29.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.
  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Grêmio - Fortaleza Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.98
    (2.28)
    3.59
    (3.26)
    4.83
    (3.18)
    -0.8%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio - Fortaleza?
  • Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 69.47%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.
    • Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Fortaleza is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Grêmio will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.7:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Fortaleza were as follows:
    04.10.2024 Grêmio - Fortaleza 3:1
    19.06.2024 Fortaleza - Grêmio 1:0
    30.09.2023 Fortaleza - Grêmio 1:1
    14.05.2023 Grêmio - Fortaleza 0:0
    Latest results of Grêmio
    26.07.2025 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    24.07.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Postponed
    23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1
    19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:1
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    24.07.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza Postponed
    19.07.2025 Fortaleza - Bahia 1:1
    13.07.2025 Fortaleza - Ceará 0:1
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ17114231:72437
    2Cruzeiro18114330:111937
    3Palmeiras16103321:14733
    4Bahia1685320:13729
    5Mirassol1677227:161128
    6Bragantino1883721:22-127
    7Botafogo RJ1675418:10826
    8Sao Paulo1867520:20025
    9Fluminense1672718:20-223
    10Atletico-MG1665518:17123
    11Ceara1764717:17022
    12Corinthians1857617:21-422
    13Internacional1756618:22-421
    14Gremio1755716:23-720
    15Vitoria1839616:20-418
    16Vasco1643918:23-515
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1736818:24-615
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1606109:25-166

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet