Result
2:1
17/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 9
- Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 1.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (14/38) | 44% (27/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (102/147) | 42% (25/60) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (10/26) | 33% (2/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.43 | -0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', Villasanti M. 🟨,
- 9', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 30', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 37', 0 - 1, Aravena A. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
- 45+7', Luciano 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Pablo Maia ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 49', 1 - 1, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 61', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
- 61', Villasanti M. ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 61', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 64', Jemerson 🟨,
- 65', Dodi 🟨,
- 73', Aravena A. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 79', Tiago Volpi 🟨,
- 83', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
- 85', 2 - 1, Andre Silva (Pen),
- 86', Monsalve M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
- 86', Oscar 🟨,
- 88', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 90+3', Oscar ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 90+8', Rafael 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
57.7% | Draw
25.9% | Grêmio
16.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
São Paulo - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↑
(1.65) |
3.66 ↑
(3.66) |
5.84 ↑
(5.5) |
5%
(6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.9% – 95.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Inactive)
Gustavo Martins
(Knee Injury)
Mayk
(Hamstring Injury)
Pavon C.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Igor Serrote
(Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Grêmio?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against São Paulo?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Grêmio were as follows:
01.12.2024
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
17.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
1:0
21.10.2023
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
3:0
04.06.2023
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 48:11 | 37 | 51 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 39:17 | 22 | 50 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36:18 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 41:23 | 18 | 42 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:18 | 17 | 40 |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31:28 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 27:24 | 3 | 35 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 26:29 | -3 | 31 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29:35 | -6 | 31 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24:29 | -5 | 29 |
| 11 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 29 |
| 12 | Ceara | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 22:23 | -1 | 28 |
| 13 | Vasco | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 27 |
| 14 | Internacional | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 28:36 | -8 | 27 |
| 15 | Santos | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 22:32 | -10 | 26 |
| 16 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 21:26 | -5 | 25 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 19:35 | -16 | 22 |
| 18 | Juventude | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 19:45 | -26 | 21 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 23:38 | -15 | 18 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 16:34 | -18 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
