Result
2:0
16/10/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 28
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Spain | #Vamos |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.79 | 0.97 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (294/349) | 90% (556/617) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.79 | 0.97 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.36 | 0.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (294/349) | 90% (556/617) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (28/49) | 59% (16/27) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (70/98) | 84% (162/194) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 33% (6/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.10 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.54 | 3.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 13', Wendell ↓, Patryck ↑,
- 21', Tapia G. 🟨,
- 29', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 39', 1 - 0, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 56', 2 - 0, Carlos Vinicius (Pen),
- 64', Mailton 🟨,
- 66', Rodriguinho ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 67', Tapia G. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
- 67', Amuzu F. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 67', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
- 75', Luciano 🟨,
- 80', Luciano ↓, Rigoni E. ↑,
- 85', Arthur Melo ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 85', Edenilson ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
- 90+4', Dodi 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
28.1% | Draw
31.2% | São Paulo
40.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+6.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Grêmio - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.36 ↑
(2.71) |
3.04 ↓
(3.1) |
2.36 ↓
(2.72) |
5.1%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Grêmio - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 73.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 53.9% – 93.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
- Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- São Paulo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique
(Yellow Cards)
Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Carlos Vinicius
(Thigh Injury)
Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Marlon
(Yellow Cards)
Monsalve M.
(Shoulder Injury)
Olivera C.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Tiago Volpi
(Muscle Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
Walter Kannemann
(Red Card)
Willian
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Muscle Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Yellow Cards)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Marcos Antonio
(Injury)
Toloi R.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.7:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against São Paulo?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Grêmio?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - São Paulo were as follows:
17.05.2025
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.12.2024
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
17.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
1:0
21.10.2023
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
3:0
04.06.2023
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 50:30 | 20 | 52 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 39:32 | 7 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 35:33 | 2 | 41 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31:33 | -2 | 38 |
| 9 | Vasco | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 44:41 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31:35 | -4 | 36 |
| 12 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Ceara | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 27:27 | 0 | 35 |
| 14 | Internacional | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35:41 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 26:32 | -6 | 33 |
| 16 | Santos | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 28:39 | -11 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 26:43 | -17 | 28 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 19 | Juventude | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 23 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 21:44 | -23 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
