São Paulo vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Grêmio
Result
2:1
17/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 9
  • Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.631.06
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
203
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
83
Passes
86% (414/484)74% (239/325)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.631.06
xG on target (xGOT)
1.811.10
Total shots
203
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
90
Blocked Shots
60
Shots inside the Box
143
Shots outside the Box
60
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
83
Touches in opposition box
2510
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
86% (414/484)74% (239/325)
Long passes
37% (14/38)44% (27/62)
Passes in final third
69% (102/147)42% (25/60)
Crosses
38% (10/26)33% (2/6)
Expected assists (xA)
0.930.51
Throw-ins
1829
Fouls
1413
Tackles
75% (12/16)50% (4/8)
Duels won
5143
Clearances
1622
Interceptions
187
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
1.101.81
Goals prevented
-0.43-0.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 4', Villasanti M. 🟨,
  • 9', Marcos Antonio , Pablo Maia ,
  • 30', Pablo Maia 🟨,
  • 37', 0 - 1, Aravena A. , Monsalve M. (A),
  • 45+7', Luciano 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Pablo Maia , Lucca Marques ,
  • 49', 1 - 1, Robert Arboleda , Diaz E. (A),
  • 61', Joao Pedro , Ronald ,
  • 61', Villasanti M. , Camilo Reijers ,
  • 61', Alysson , Pavon C. ,
  • 64', Jemerson 🟨,
  • 65', Dodi 🟨,
  • 73', Aravena A. , Amuzu F. ,
  • 79', Tiago Volpi 🟨,
  • 83', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
  • 85', 2 - 1, Andre Silva (Pen),
  • 86', Monsalve M. , Arezo M. ,
  • 86', Oscar 🟨,
  • 88', Lucas Ferreira , Soares C. ,
  • 90+3', Oscar , Bobadilla D. ,
  • 90+8', Rafael 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
57.7%
Draw
25.9%
Grêmio
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.2% 25.7% 17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6% 25.1% 16.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • São Paulo - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.65
    (1.65)
    3.66
    (3.66)
    5.84
    (5.5)
    5%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.9%95.7%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Inactive) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Inactive) Gustavo Martins (Knee Injury) Mayk (Hamstring Injury) Pavon C. (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Injury) Villasanti M. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Igor Serrote (Injury) Joao Pedro (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.1:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Grêmio were as follows:
    01.12.2024 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:1
    17.07.2024 São Paulo - Grêmio 1:0
    21.10.2023 São Paulo - Grêmio 3:0
    04.06.2023 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Grêmio
    13.05.2025 Grêmio - Godoy Cruz 1:1
    07.05.2025 Atlético Grau - Grêmio 0:0
    04.05.2025 Grêmio - Santos 1:0
    30.04.2025 CS Alagoano - Grêmio 3:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ1493227:52230
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1583418:15327
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Corinthians1655615:19-420
    11Ceara1553714:15-118
    12Internacional1445514:18-417
    13Gremio1445514:20-617
    14Sao Paulo1537514:18-416
    15Vitoria1536611:15-415
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1442812:17-514
    18Juventude1332810:28-1811
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1303105:21-163

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet