Result
2:0
11/02/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 3
- Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.37 | 0.31 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (462/516) | 83% (318/381) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.37 | 0.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.52 | 0.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (462/516) | 83% (318/381) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (18/31) | 55% (34/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 82% (141/172) | 59% (49/83) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 50% (6/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 0.43 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.48 | 2.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 22', Weverton 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 0, Lucas Moura (Penalty Awarded),
- 32', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 40', Edenilson ↓, Willian ↑,
- 45', Luciano 🟨,
- 45+4', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 45+5', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
- 53', Amuzu F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 59', 2 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 63', Luciano (Penalty Awarded),
- 68', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 69', Joao Pedro ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
- 70', Tete ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 70', Franco A. ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 71', Lucas Moura ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 85', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 85', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
- 90+5', Andre Henrique 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
49% | Draw
29.2% | Grêmio
21.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
São Paulo - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↓
(1.99) |
3.24 ↓
(3.25) |
4.3 ↑
(3.58) |
5.6%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 9.6% – 70.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Grêmio (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
- São Paulo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- São Paulo will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Moura
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Grêmio?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against São Paulo?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Grêmio were as follows:
16.10.2025
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:0
17.05.2025
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.12.2024
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
17.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
1:0
21.10.2023
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
3:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Corinthians | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gremio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Remo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Vasco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Internacional | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
