Result
2:1
17/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 9
- Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.63 | 1.06 |
Ball Possession |
---|
61% | 39% |
Total shots |
---|
20 | 3 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
4 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
8 | 3 |
Passes |
---|
86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.63 | 1.06 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.81 | 1.10 |
Total shots |
---|
20 | 3 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
9 | 0 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
6 | 0 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
14 | 3 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 0 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
4 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
8 | 3 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
25 | 10 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 1 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
13 | 14 |
Passes |
---|
86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
Long passes |
---|
37% (14/38) | 44% (27/62) |
Passes in final third |
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69% (102/147) | 42% (25/60) |
Crosses |
---|
38% (10/26) | 33% (2/6) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.93 | 0.51 |
Throw-ins |
---|
18 | 29 |
Fouls |
---|
14 | 13 |
Tackles |
---|
75% (12/16) | 50% (4/8) |
Duels won |
---|
51 | 43 |
Clearances |
---|
16 | 22 |
Interceptions |
---|
18 | 7 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.10 | 1.81 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.43 | -0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', Villasanti M. 🟨,
- 9', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 30', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 37', 0 - 1, Aravena A. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
- 45+7', Luciano 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Pablo Maia ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 49', 1 - 1, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 61', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
- 61', Villasanti M. ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 61', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 64', Jemerson 🟨,
- 65', Dodi 🟨,
- 73', Aravena A. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 79', Tiago Volpi 🟨,
- 83', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
- 85', 2 - 1, Andre Silva (Pen),
- 86', Monsalve M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
- 86', Oscar 🟨,
- 88', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 90+3', Oscar ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 90+8', Rafael 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo 57.7% | Draw 25.9% | Grêmio 16.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
São Paulo - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.65 ↑ (1.65) |
3.66 ↑ (3.66) |
5.84 ↑ (5.5) |
5% (6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.9% – 95.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Inactive)
Gustavo Martins
(Knee Injury)
Mayk
(Hamstring Injury)
Pavon C.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Igor Serrote
(Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Grêmio?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against São Paulo?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Grêmio were as follows:
01.12.2024
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
17.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
1:0
21.10.2023
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
3:0
04.06.2023
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:9 | 18 | 34 |
2 | Flamengo RJ | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 27:5 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Palmeiras | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 29 |
4 | Bragantino | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Botafogo RJ | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:7 | 10 | 25 |
6 | Bahia | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Mirassol | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
8 | Fluminense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
9 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 20 |
10 | Corinthians | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
11 | Ceara | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
12 | Internacional | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
13 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
14 | Sao Paulo | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 16 |
15 | Vitoria | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 11:15 | -4 | 15 |
16 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 |
17 | Santos | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 12:17 | -5 | 14 |
18 | Juventude | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10:28 | -18 | 11 |
19 | Fortaleza | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | -7 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5:21 | -16 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet