Grêmio vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A
Result
2:0
16/10/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 28
  • Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
israelIsraelSport 3
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
spainSpain#Vamos
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.790.97
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
71
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
84% (294/349)90% (556/617)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
2.790.97
xG on target (xGOT)
3.360.54
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
610
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
129
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
2226
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1611
Passes
84% (294/349)90% (556/617)
Long passes
57% (28/49)59% (16/27)
Passes in final third
71% (70/98)84% (162/194)
Crosses
23% (3/13)33% (6/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.641.10
Throw-ins
119
Fouls
1116
Tackles
56% (9/16)64% (9/14)
Duels won
4738
Clearances
2023
Interceptions
158
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.543.36
Goals prevented
0.541.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 13', Wendell ↓, Patryck ↑,
  • 21', Tapia G. 🟨,
  • 29', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
  • 39', 1 - 0, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
  • 56', 2 - 0, Carlos Vinicius (Pen),
  • 64', Mailton 🟨,
  • 66', Rodriguinho ↓, Ferreira ↑,
  • 67', Tapia G. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
  • 67', Amuzu F. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
  • 67', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
  • 75', Luciano 🟨,
  • 80', Luciano ↓, Rigoni E. ↑,
  • 85', Arthur Melo ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
  • 85', Edenilson ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
  • 90+4', Dodi 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Grêmio
28.1%		Draw
31.2%		São Paulo
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.9% 30.4% 34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9% 30.4% 34.7%

Grêmio - São Paulo Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 3.36 ↑
(2.71)		 3.04 ↓
(3.1)		 2.36 ↓
(2.72)		 5.1%
(5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Grêmio - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 73.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 53.9% – 93.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
    • Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • São Paulo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Yellow Cards) Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Vinicius (Thigh Injury) Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Marlon (Yellow Cards) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury) Olivera C. (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Tiago Volpi (Muscle Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Walter Kannemann (Red Card) Willian (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Muscle Injury) Pablo Maia (Yellow Cards) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Marcos Antonio (Injury) Toloi R. (Hamstring Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.7:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - São Paulo were as follows:
    17.05.2025 São Paulo - Grêmio 2:1
    01.12.2024 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:1
    17.07.2024 São Paulo - Grêmio 1:0
    21.10.2023 São Paulo - Grêmio 3:0
    04.06.2023 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of Grêmio
    04.10.2025 Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio 1:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Santos - Grêmio 1:1 ✺
    28.09.2025 Grêmio - Vitória Salvador 3:1 ✺
    24.09.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ 1:1 ✺
    21.09.2025 Internacional RS - Grêmio 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of São Paulo
    05.10.2025 São Paulo - Palmeiras 2:3 ✺
    02.10.2025 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:2 ✺
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1 ✺
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1 ✺
    21.09.2025 Santos - São Paulo 1:0 ✺
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2026
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bragantino00000:000
    2Internacional00000:000
    3Vasco00000:000
    4Gremio00000:000
    5Botafogo RJ00000:000
    6Santos00000:000
    7Sao Paulo00000:000
    8Coritiba00000:000
    9Cruzeiro00000:000
    10Vitoria00000:000
    11Atletico-MG00000:000
    12Fluminense00000:000
    13Flamengo RJ00000:000
    14Palmeiras00000:000
    15Athletico-PR00000:000
    16Bahia00000:000
    17Corinthians00000:000
    18Mirassol00000:000
    19Remo00000:000
    20Chapecoense-SC00000:000

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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