Result
1:1
04/02/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 2
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Spain | Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.64 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (331/394) | 79% (315/397) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (331/394) | 79% (315/397) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (24/48) | 30% (13/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (76/109) | 64% (65/102) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 0.99 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (4/9) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | -0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Frias A. 🟨,
- 30', Rony 🟨,
- 37', Franco A. 🟨,
- 45+5', 1 - 0, Ze Rafael ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Frias A. ↓, Joao Basso ↑,
- 54', Ze Rafael 🟨,
- 61', Tapia G. ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 61', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 62', Pablo Maia ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
- 66', 1 - 1, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Lucas Moura (A),
- 70', Ze Rafael ↓, Miguelito ↑,
- 71', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
- 74', Escobar G. 🟨,
- 80', Barreal A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
- 84', Bobadilla D. ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
- 88', Gabriel Menino ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
- 88', Rony ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
- 90', Maik ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Santos
43.5% | Draw
29.7% | São Paulo
26.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Santos - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↑
(2.08) |
3.16 ↓
(3.35) |
3.53 ↑
(3.35) |
6%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Santos - São Paulo?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.25 - São Paulo (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Santos will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 66.7%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 3.
- Santos is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- São Paulo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Santos could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Santos: Neymar
(Knee Injury)
Thaciano
(Inactive)
Tiquinho Soares
(Inactive)
Willian Arao
(Inactive)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against São Paulo?
Santos has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Santos?
São Paulo has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Santos - São Paulo were as follows:
31.01.2026
São Paulo
-
Santos
2:0
21.09.2025
Santos
-
São Paulo
1:0
20.04.2025
São Paulo
-
Santos
2:1
01.02.2025
Santos
-
São Paulo
3:1
14.02.2024
São Paulo
-
Santos
0:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:12 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:21 | -1 | 17 |
| 13 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
