Result
2:1
22/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 8
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 0.56 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (252/324) | 85% (468/548) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 0.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.88 | 0.64 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (252/324) | 85% (468/548) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (12/41) | 48% (27/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (95/136) | 66% (79/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.46 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.64 | 2.88 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.36 | 0.88 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 7', 1 - 0, Cuiabano ⚽, David (A),
- 22', Cuiabano 🟨,
- 34', 2 - 0, David ⚽, Cuiabano (A),
- 38', 2 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Nardoni J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
- 46', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 48', Viery 🟨,
- 56', Nardoni J. ↓, Willian ↑,
- 58', Moreira N. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
- 58', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 64', Amuzu F. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
- 68', Thiago Mendes ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
- 69', David ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 69', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
- 75', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
- 82', Cuiabano ↓, Lucas Piton ↑,
- 90+4', Andres Gomez 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
50% | Draw
27.4% | Grêmio
22.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4%)
Vasco da Gama - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↓
(2.09) |
3.45 ↑
(3.41) |
4.17 ↑
(3.53) |
5.4%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 1.
- Vasco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Grêmio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Vasco is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Vasco: Jair
(Knee Injury)
Mateus Carvalho
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo
(Injury)
Gustavo Martins
(Inactive)
Joao Pedro
(Inactive)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Marlon
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:27. (average 0.6:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 0.9:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Grêmio?
Vasco da Gama has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Vasco da Gama?
Grêmio has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Grêmio were as follows:
19.11.2025
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
19.07.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
1:1
28.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
14.04.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
2:1
03.12.2023
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Bahia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gremio | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Vasco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Santos | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Chapecoense-SC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | Remo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
