Vasco da Gama vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Vasco da Gama - Grêmio
Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 15
  • Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 1
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.050.83
Ball Possession
64%36%
Total shots
319
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
122
Passes
89% (462/517)77% (234/304)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
2.050.83
xG on target (xGOT)
1.740.90
Total shots
319
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
124
Blocked Shots
121
Shots inside the Box
155
Shots outside the Box
164
Hit the Woodwork
11
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
122
Touches in opposition box
296
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1516
Passes
89% (462/517)77% (234/304)
Long passes
71% (22/31)41% (22/54)
Passes in final third
79% (116/147)65% (26/40)
Crosses
18% (7/38)38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.050.54
Throw-ins
2217
Fouls
1615
Tackles
67% (8/12)64% (9/14)
Duels won
4650
Clearances
739
Interceptions
811
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
0.901.74
Goals prevented
-0.100.63

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 43', Edenilson 🟨,
  • 44', Fernando Diniz 🟨,
  • 45+2', Olivera C. 🟨,
  • 45+6', Alex Santana 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Edenilson , Villasanti M. ,
  • 54', Olivera C. , Pavon C. ,
  • 54', Alex Santana , Cristaldo F. ,
  • 60', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
  • 64', 1 - 0, Lucas Freitas ,
  • 68', Alysson , Freitas dos Santos R. ,
  • 75', Braithwaite M. , Andre Henrique ,
  • 76', David , Mateus Carvalho ,
  • 79', Joao Victor 🟨,
  • 80', 1 - 1, Gustavo Martins , Pavon C. (A),
  • 86', Joao Victor , Augusto L. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vasco da Gama
44.2%
Draw
30.2%
Grêmio
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.7% 30.1% 31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6% 30% 31.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Vasco da Gama - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.15
    (2.41)
    3.14
    (3.1)
    3.69
    (3)
    5.5%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.5%71.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Vasco will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Inactive) Thiago Mendes (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:26. (average 0.6:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.8:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Grêmio were as follows:
    28.07.2024 Grêmio - Vasco da Gama 1:0
    14.04.2024 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 2:1
    03.12.2023 Grêmio - Vasco da Gama 1:0
    06.08.2023 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:0
    11.09.2022 Grêmio - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    Latest results of Grêmio
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    13.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 4:1
    12.06.2025 Grêmio - Corinthians 1:1
    01.06.2025 Juventude - Grêmio 0:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ15103229:62333
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1683519:17227
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Internacional1555516:19-320
    11Corinthians1655615:19-420
    12Sao Paulo1647515:18-319
    13Ceara1553714:15-118
    14Gremio1445514:20-617
    15Vitoria1637613:17-416
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1542913:19-614
    18Juventude1432910:29-1911
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1404107:23-164

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet