Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 15
- Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 0.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 31 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (462/517) | 77% (234/304) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 0.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.90 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 31 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (462/517) | 77% (234/304) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 71% (22/31) | 41% (22/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (116/147) | 65% (26/40) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (7/38) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.54 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 7 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.10 | 0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 43', Edenilson 🟨,
- 44', Fernando Diniz 🟨,
- 45+2', Olivera C. 🟨,
- 45+6', Alex Santana 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Edenilson ↓, Villasanti M. ↑,
- 54', Olivera C. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 54', Alex Santana ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 60', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
- 64', 1 - 0, Lucas Freitas ⚽,
- 68', Alysson ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
- 75', Braithwaite M. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 76', David ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
- 79', Joao Victor 🟨,
- 80', 1 - 1, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
- 86', Joao Victor ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
44.2% | Draw
30.2% | Grêmio
25.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Vasco da Gama - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.15 ↓
(2.41) |
3.14 ↑
(3.1) |
3.69 ↑
(3) |
5.5%
(7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.5% – 71.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Vasco will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Vasco: Adson
(Inactive)
Thiago Mendes
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:26. (average 0.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.8:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Grêmio?
Vasco da Gama has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Vasco da Gama?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Grêmio were as follows:
28.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
14.04.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
2:1
03.12.2023
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
06.08.2023
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
1:0
11.09.2022
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
2:1
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:9 | 18 | 34 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 29:6 | 23 | 33 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Bragantino | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 27 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:7 | 10 | 25 |
| 6 | Bahia | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Mirassol | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Internacional | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 | Ceara | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13:17 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Santos | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13:19 | -6 | 14 |
| 18 | Juventude | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 11 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | -7 | 11 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7:23 | -16 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
