Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 15
- Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
Israel | Sport 1 |
Portugal | Canal 11 |
Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.05 | 0.83 |
Ball Possession |
---|
64% | 36% |
Total shots |
---|
31 | 9 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
12 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
89% (462/517) | 77% (234/304) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
2 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.05 | 0.83 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.74 | 0.90 |
Total shots |
---|
31 | 9 |
Shots on target |
---|
7 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
12 | 4 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
12 | 1 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
15 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
16 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 1 |
Headed Goals |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
12 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
29 | 6 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
15 | 16 |
Passes |
---|
89% (462/517) | 77% (234/304) |
Long passes |
---|
71% (22/31) | 41% (22/54) |
Passes in final third |
---|
79% (116/147) | 65% (26/40) |
Crosses |
---|
18% (7/38) | 38% (3/8) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.05 | 0.54 |
Throw-ins |
---|
22 | 17 |
Fouls |
---|
16 | 15 |
Tackles |
---|
67% (8/12) | 64% (9/14) |
Duels won |
---|
46 | 50 |
Clearances |
---|
7 | 39 |
Interceptions |
---|
8 | 11 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 6 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.90 | 1.74 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.10 | 0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 43', Edenilson 🟨,
- 44', Fernando Diniz 🟨,
- 45+2', Olivera C. 🟨,
- 45+6', Alex Santana 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Edenilson ↓, Villasanti M. ↑,
- 54', Olivera C. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 54', Alex Santana ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 60', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
- 64', 1 - 0, Lucas Freitas ⚽,
- 68', Alysson ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
- 75', Braithwaite M. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 76', David ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
- 79', Joao Victor 🟨,
- 80', 1 - 1, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
- 86', Joao Victor ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama 44.2% | Draw 30.2% | Grêmio 25.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Vasco da Gama - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.15 ↓ (2.41) |
3.14 ↑ (3.1) |
3.69 ↑ (3) |
5.5% (7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.5% – 71.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Vasco will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Vasco: Adson
(Inactive)
Thiago Mendes
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:26. (average 0.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.8:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Grêmio?
Vasco da Gama has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Vasco da Gama?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Grêmio were as follows:
28.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
14.04.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
2:1
03.12.2023
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
06.08.2023
Vasco da Gama
-
Grêmio
1:0
11.09.2022
Grêmio
-
Vasco da Gama
2:1
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:9 | 18 | 34 |
2 | Flamengo RJ | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 29:6 | 23 | 33 |
3 | Palmeiras | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 29 |
4 | Bragantino | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 27 |
5 | Botafogo RJ | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:7 | 10 | 25 |
6 | Bahia | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Mirassol | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
8 | Fluminense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
9 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 20 |
10 | Internacional | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 20 |
11 | Corinthians | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Sao Paulo | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 19 |
13 | Ceara | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
15 | Vitoria | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13:17 | -4 | 16 |
16 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 |
17 | Santos | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13:19 | -6 | 14 |
18 | Juventude | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 11 |
19 | Fortaleza | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | -7 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7:23 | -16 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet