Result
3:1
28/09/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 25
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.05 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (359/423) | 86% (351/408) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (359/423) | 86% (351/408) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (20/47) | 45% (19/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (65/87) | 72% (79/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (2/18) | 8% (2/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 0.41 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.21 | 2.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.21 | -0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 22', Willian ↓, Alysson ↑,
- 26', Baralhas 🟨,
- 35', Camutanga 🟨,
- 45', Marlon 🟨,
- 45+2', 1 - 0, Andre Henrique ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 49', 1 - 1, Cantalapiedra A. ⚽,
- 59', Erick 🟨,
- 60', Edenilson ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 60', Pavon C. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 1, Amuzu F. ⚽, Cristaldo F. (A),
- 70', Marcos Rocha ↓, Dodi ↑,
- 71', Andre Henrique ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 71', Erick ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
- 71', Camutanga ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
- 81', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
- 81', Renato Kayzer ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
- 83', Baralhas ↓, Romarinho ↑,
- 87', Lopez R. ↓, Lucas Braga ↑,
- 89', 3 - 1, Aravena A. ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
Chances of winning
Grêmio
63.3% | Draw
26.6% | Vitória Salvador
10.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitória Salvador might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-10.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+9.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitória Salvador could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Grêmio - Vitória Salvador Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.73) |
4.08 ↑
(3.5) |
11.76 ↑
(5) |
-6.6%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Vitória Salvador?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- 1X2, 1st Half - Grêmio (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Grêmio (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Grêmio will win
(9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3.
- Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Vitória has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Vitória may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Grêmio is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Carlos Vinicius
(Injury)
Cuellar G.
(Inactive)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Shoulder Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Vitória: Dudu
(Red Card)
Fintelman
(Hip Injury)
Jamerson
(Ankle Injury)
Pepe
(Yellow Cards)
Ramos R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Freitas dos Santos R.
(Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Vitória: Fabricio
(Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:8. (average 1.4:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.6:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Vitória Salvador?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitória Salvador won against Grêmio?
Vitória Salvador has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Vitória Salvador were as follows:
27.04.2025
Vitória Salvador
-
Grêmio
1:1
04.12.2024
Vitória Salvador
-
Grêmio
1:1
21.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Vitória Salvador
2:0
Latest results of Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gremio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Atletico-MG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 19 | Vasco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
