Result
0:1
04/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 17
- Referee: Braun R. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 4 |
 Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2 |
 Brazil | Canal GOAT, SporTV |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 4, Oneplay |
 Denmark | See, Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 2 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Malta | TSN Malta 8 |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 3 |
 Portugal | DAZN 2, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 3 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, True Premier Football 4 |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 1.93 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (250/334) | 84% (477/569) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 1.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 36 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (250/334) | 84% (477/569) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (26/66) | 39% (18/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (42/74) | 72% (133/184) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 43% (9/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 60% (15/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.07 | 1.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 29', Jatta B. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
- 40', Garcia A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 65', Downs D. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
- 65', Omari W. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
- 65', Philippe R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
- 71', Terrier M. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
- 73', 0 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
- 80', Culbreath M. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
- 80', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
- 89', Maza I. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
- 90+5', Palacios E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Hamburger SV
26.1% | Draw
26.4% | Bayer Leverkusen
47.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.64 ↑
(3.38) |
3.61 ↓
(3.66) |
2.02 ↓
(2.04) |
4.5%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen?
Users Predictions:
41 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Bayer will win (votes: 20 - 48.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 31.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 33.5% – 64.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Bayer (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Bayer (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- DC - Bayer (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Hamburg (3.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 13%). Bayer (votes: 20 - 87%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.
- Hamburg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Bayer might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D.
(Red Card)
Omari W.
(Knee Injury)
Poulsen Y.
(Ankle Injury)
Suhonen A.
(Illness)
- There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E.
(International duty)
Kofane C.
(Rest)
Maza I.
(Rest)
Palacios E.
(Groin Injury)
Tape A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R.
(Thigh Injury)
Soumahoro A.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Bayer: Schick P.
(Ankle Injury)
Tapsoba E.
(Rest)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against Bayer Leverkusen?
Hamburger SV has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bayer Leverkusen won against Hamburger SV?
Bayer Leverkusen has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
Latest results of Hamburger SV
Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich ✔ | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 105:27 | 78 | 76 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 60:29 | 31 | 64 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 60:38 | 22 | 56 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 56:36 | 20 | 56 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 59:39 | 20 | 52 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 57:43 | 14 | 51 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 54:54 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 42:47 | -5 | 40 |
| 9 | Mainz | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 35:44 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 36:53 | -17 | 33 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 33:50 | -17 | 32 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:45 | -13 | 31 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 43:50 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | B. Monchengladbach | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 35:49 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 32:52 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 25:50 | -25 | 25 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 39:65 | -26 | 21 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 32:64 | -32 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
Clinched Spots for Teams
Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
