Result
1:0
14/03/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premiership - Round 30
- Referee: Dickinson D. (Sco)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | SPOTV Asia |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 1 |
 India | Vision+ |
 Indonesia | SPOTV, Vidio |
 Ireland | NOW |
 Israel | 5 LIVE Israel |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Malaysia | Astro Go |
 Mongolia | SPOTV |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Philippines | SPOTV |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 South-korea | SPOTV |
 Thailand | SPOTV |
 United-kingdom | Hearts TV, Kilmarnock TV, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports UHD |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
 Vietnam | SPOTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.80 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (214/316) | 76% (378/497) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.80 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 0.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (214/316) | 76% (378/497) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (23/68) | 42% (26/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (73/128) | 62% (86/139) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 34% (11/32) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.87 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 78 | 71 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.34 | 1.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.75 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 17', 1 - 0, Schjonning-Larsen M. ⚽,
- 35', Magnusson T. ↓, McEntee O. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Kabore P. ↓, Chesnokov I. ↑,
- 56', Steinwender M. ↓, Altena J. ↑,
- 65', Watson D. ↓, Lowery T. ↑,
- 70', Schjonning-Larsen M. ↓, Thompson D. ↑,
- 70', Kiltie G. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
- 75', Thompson D. 🟨,
- 76', Halkett C. 🟨,
- 81', Milne H. ↓, Kerjota S. ↑,
- 83', Hugill J. ↓, Watkins M. ↑,
- 83', Curtis F. ↓, Thomson J. ↑,
- 87', Kyziridis A. ↓, Kent F. ↑,
- 88', Spittal B. ↓, Kabangu E. ↑,
- 89', Tshibola A. ↓, Mayo L. ↑,
- 90+1', Polworth L. 🟨,
- 90+6', Chesnokov I. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Kilmarnock
21.2% | Draw
24.1% | Hearts
54.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hearts than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Kilmarnock - Hearts Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.44 ↓
(5.23) |
3.92 ↑
(3.67) |
1.73 ↑
(1.61) |
5.7%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Kilmarnock - Hearts?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Hearts will win
(14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hearts will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )).
- Kilmarnock is Premiership (Relegation Group )
- Hearts is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 1.
- Kilmarnock is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Hearts has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Hearts is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D.
(Knee Injury)
John-Jules T.
(Injury)
Kennedy M.
(Hip Injury)
Magennis K.
(Knee Injury)
Mayo L.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Hearts: Ageu
(Thigh Injury)
Devlin C.
(Ankle Injury)
Findlay S.
(Thigh Injury)
Kingsley S.
(Groin Injury)
Nieuwenhof C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Pollock F.
(Hamstring Injury)
Shankland L.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Kilmarnock won against Hearts?
Kilmarnock has won 4 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Hearts won against Kilmarnock?
Hearts has won 6 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kilmarnock - Hearts were as follows:
03.12.2025
Hearts
-
Kilmarnock
1:1
18.10.2025
Kilmarnock
-
Hearts
0:3
18.05.2025
Kilmarnock
-
Hearts
0:1
25.01.2025
Hearts
-
Kilmarnock
3:2
15.12.2024
Kilmarnock
-
Hearts
1:0
Latest results of Kilmarnock
Scottish Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Hearts ✔ | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 52:25 | 27 | 63 |
| 2 | Celtic ✔ | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 56:32 | 24 | 61 |
| 3 | Rangers ✔ | 30 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 52:25 | 27 | 60 |
| 4 | Motherwell ✔ | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 49:23 | 26 | 53 |
| 5 | Hibernian ✔ | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 48:35 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 38:38 | 0 | 43 |
| 7 | Dundee Utd | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 38:48 | -10 | 34 |
| 8 | Dundee FC ✔ | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31:48 | -17 | 32 |
| 9 | Aberdeen ✔ | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30:42 | -12 | 30 |
| 10 | St. Mirren ✔ | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 23:46 | -23 | 24 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock ✔ | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 33:60 | -27 | 24 |
| 12 | Livingston ✔ | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 31:59 | -28 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )
Premiership (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Hearts is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Celtic is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Rangers is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Motherwell is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Hibernian is Qualified for Premiership (Championship Group )
Dundee FC is Premiership (Relegation Group )
Aberdeen is Premiership (Relegation Group )
St. Mirren is Premiership (Relegation Group )
Kilmarnock is Premiership (Relegation Group )
Livingston is Premiership (Relegation Group )
