Result
1:1
20/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 28
- Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Indonesia | Kompas TV, Vidio |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.07 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (265/370) | 76% (285/377) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (265/370) | 76% (285/377) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (30/75) | 45% (35/77) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (59/113) | 60% (49/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/23) | 30% (3/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 81% (13/16) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | 0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 14', Wieckhoff J. 🟨,
- 23', 1 - 0, Scheperman S. ⚽,
- 38', Schouten L. ↓, Meissen R. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Wieckhoff J. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
- 57', 1 - 1, Sanches Fernandes D. ⚽, Naujoks N. (A),
- 58', Unuvar N. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
- 61', Scheperman S. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
- 69', de Regt G. ↓, Hansson E. ↑,
- 69', Bergraaf J. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 72', Ahlstrand E. ↓, Limbombe B. ↑,
- 72', Bozinovski R. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
- 79', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
- 80', Wlodarczyk S. 🟨,
- 87', Engels M. 🟨,
- 90', Naujoks N. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Heracles Almelo
36% | Draw
28.3% | Excelsior
35.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
Heracles Almelo - Excelsior Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.64 ↑
(2.28) |
3.34 ↓
(3.45) |
2.66 ↓
(2.8) |
5.5%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - Excelsior?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Excelsior will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Excelsior: 10.6% – 60.8%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3.
- Each of the two teams has experienced multiple losses lately.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Heracles: Kulenovic L.
(Inactive)
Ould Chikh W.
(Inactive)
Reine-Adelaide J.
(Knee Injury)
Zeefuik L.
(Yellow Cards)
de Keijzer F.
(Inactive)
te Wierik M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Excelsior: Jonathans M.
(Knee Injury)
Raatsie C.
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Excelsior: Bergraaf J.
(Injury)
Nadje C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:37. (average 1.6:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:20. (average 1.6:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against Excelsior?
Heracles Almelo has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Heracles Almelo?
Excelsior has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - Excelsior were as follows:
08.11.2025
Excelsior
-
Heracles Almelo
1:2
26.07.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
Excelsior
1:2
12.05.2024
Excelsior
-
Heracles Almelo
4:0
02.09.2023
Heracles Almelo
-
Excelsior
3:1
28.07.2023
Heracles Almelo
-
Excelsior
2:1
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV ✔ | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 84:40 | 44 | 74 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62:41 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72:48 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51:32 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57:37 | 20 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:45 | 7 | 48 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 44 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53:50 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:37 | 5 | 42 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 35:49 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | G.A. Eagles | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 50:45 | 5 | 36 |
| 12 | Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44:55 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 40:60 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:50 | -19 | 28 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:51 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Telstar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 39:52 | -13 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30:51 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34:77 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
Clinched Spots for Teams
PSV is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
