Result
0:1
14/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 23
- Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.26 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (275/372) | 76% (259/340) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.31 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (275/372) | 76% (259/340) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (28/61) | 43% (26/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (60/118) | 64% (54/85) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (5/18) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (10/22) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 67 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 36', Greiml L. ↓, Odoi D. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', Holtby L. 🟨,
- 60', Benita M. ↓, Bozinovski R. ↑,
- 61', Ould Chikh W. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
- 76', Soumano M. ↓, Salama A. ↑,
- 80', 0 - 1, Leemans C. (Penalty Awarded),
- 84', Brym C. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
- 85', Leemans C. ↓, Mahmutovic E. ↑,
- 90', van der Kust D. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
- 90', Unuvar N. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Heracles Almelo
33.2% | Draw
28.6% | NAC Breda
38.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.86 ↑
(2.51) |
3.31 ↓
(3.48) |
2.49 ↓
(2.61) |
5.4%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Breda will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 12.6% – 58%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 20%). Breda (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Heracles (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Heracles (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Heracles (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Heracles (votes: 4 - 50%). Breda (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3.
- The current form of both teams is below expectations.
- Breda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:24. (average 2.2:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.7:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against NAC Breda?
Heracles Almelo has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has NAC Breda won against Heracles Almelo?
NAC Breda has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda were as follows:
29.10.2025
NAC Breda
-
Heracles Almelo
1:4
20.09.2025
NAC Breda
-
Heracles Almelo
2:1
31.01.2025
NAC Breda
-
Heracles Almelo
1:1
02.11.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
NAC Breda
2:0
12.05.2023
NAC Breda
-
Heracles Almelo
0:3
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Latest results of NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
