Heracles Almelo vs NAC Breda – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Asito Stadium (Almelo).

Eredivisie - Round 23
Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.12	1.26
Ball possession
53%	47%
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
3	5
Big chances
2	2
Corner kicks
4	3
Passes
74% (275/372)	76% (259/340)
Yellow cards
0	1
Expected goals (xG)
1.12	1.26
xG on target (xGOT)
1.37	1.31
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
6	4
Blocked shots
5	4
Shots inside the box
10	6
Shots outside the box
4	7
Hit the woodwork
2	1
Big chances
2	2
Corner kicks
4	3
Touches in opposition box
23	21
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
4	4
Free kicks
12	12
Passes
74% (275/372)	76% (259/340)
Long passes
46% (28/61)	43% (26/61)
Passes in final third
51% (60/118)	64% (54/85)
Crosses
28% (5/18)	25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.52	0.55
Throw ins
23	21
Fouls
12	12
Tackles
45% (10/22)	64% (9/14)
Duels won
67	47
Clearances
26	33
Interceptions
9	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	3
xGOT faced
1.31	1.37
Goals prevented
0.31	1.37

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Greiml L. ↓, Odoi D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Holtby L. 🟨,
60', Benita M. ↓, Bozinovski R. ↑,
61', Ould Chikh W. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
76', Soumano M. ↓, Salama A. ↑,
80', 0 - 1, Leemans C. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Brym C. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
85', Leemans C. ↓, Mahmutovic E. ↑,
90', van der Kust D. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
90', Unuvar N. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,

Chances of winning

Heracles Almelo
33.2%

Draw
28.6%

NAC Breda
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

26.9%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

26%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.51)	3.31 ↓ (3.48)	2.49 ↓ (2.61)	5.4% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda?

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Breda will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 12.6% – 58%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 20%). Breda (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heracles (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Heracles (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Heracles (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Heracles (votes: 4 - 50%). Breda (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3.
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Breda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:24. (average 2.2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.7:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against NAC Breda?

Heracles Almelo has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has NAC Breda won against Heracles Almelo?

NAC Breda has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda were as follows:

29.10.2025 NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo 1:4

20.09.2025 NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo 2:1

31.01.2025 NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo 1:1

02.11.2024 Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda 2:0

12.05.2023 NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo 0:3

Latest results of Heracles Almelo

07.02.2026 NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo 4:1 ✺

01.02.2026 Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard 2:1 ✺

25.01.2026 Feyenoord - Heracles Almelo 4:2 ✺

18.01.2026 Heracles Almelo - Twente 0:2 ✺

14.01.2026 Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo 3:2 ✺

Latest results of NAC Breda

06.02.2026 NAC Breda - Excelsior 0:2 ✺

30.01.2026 NAC Breda - Twente 2:2 ✺

24.01.2026 PSV Eindhoven - NAC Breda 2:2 ✺

17.01.2026 NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen 3:4 ✺

10.01.2026 Groningen - NAC Breda 0:0 ✺

Dutch Eredivisie Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSV	27	22	2	3	77:34	43	68
2	Feyenoord	27	16	4	7	60:39	21	52
3	Nijmegen	27	14	7	6	67:45	22	49
4	Ajax	27	12	11	4	52:34	18	47
5	Twente	27	11	11	5	45:29	16	44
6	AZ Alkmaar	27	12	6	9	47:42	5	42
7	Heerenveen	27	11	7	9	47:44	3	40
8	Utrecht	27	10	8	9	40:31	9	38
9	Sparta Rotterdam	27	11	5	11	33:47	-14	38
10	Groningen	27	10	5	12	37:37	0	35
11	Sittard	27	10	5	12	42:50	-8	35
12	G.A. Eagles	27	7	11	9	45:43	2	32
13	Zwolle	27	7	9	11	36:52	-16	30
14	FC Volendam	27	7	6	14	30:46	-16	27
15	Excelsior	27	7	5	15	28:46	-18	26
16	Telstar	27	5	9	13	35:45	-10	24
17	NAC Breda	27	5	8	14	28:48	-20	23
18	Heracles	27	5	3	19	32:69	-37	18

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      Eredivisie (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie