Result
0:1
28/02/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 24
- Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena |
 Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4 |
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 Bulgaria | Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 5 |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Sony LIV, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | K-Vision |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | DAZN / App |
 Romania | Prima Sport PPV 2 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 4 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4 |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.72 | 0.78 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (456/567) | 68% (208/305) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.72 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.75 | 0.90 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 41 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (456/567) | 68% (208/305) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (33/61) | 25% (19/75) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (121/201) | 51% (45/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 39% (12/31) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.80 | 0.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 51 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.90 | 2.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.10 | 2.75 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 21', Kabak O. 🟨,
- 38', Sinani D. 🟨,
- 45+4', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
- 62', Burger W. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
- 74', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
- 74', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
- 75', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
- 80', Fujita J. 🟨,
- 83', Ilzer C. 🟨,
- 86', Hajdari A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
- 88', Sinani D. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Hoffenheim
62.2% | Draw
22.2% | St. Pauli
15.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Hoffenheim - St. Pauli Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.58) |
4.28 ↓
(4.57) |
6.15 ↑
(5.03) |
4.7%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Hoffenheim - St. Pauli?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1 - Hoffenheim (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Hoffenheim (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1.5 - Hoffenheim (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Hoffenheim (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Hoffenheim will win
(33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 11 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
- Hoffenheim is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Hoffenheim is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I.
(Illness)
Campbell C.
(Ankle Injury)
Frees K.
(Illness)
Hlozek A.
(Calf Injury)
Machida K.
(Knee Injury)
Moerstedt M.
(Illness)
- There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A.
(Ankle Injury)
Jones R.J.
(Injury)
Nemeth D.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Hoffenheim won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Hoffenheim won against St. Pauli?
Hoffenheim has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Hoffenheim?
St. Pauli has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hoffenheim - St. Pauli were as follows:
28.10.2025
St. Pauli
-
Hoffenheim
3:2
19.10.2025
St. Pauli
-
Hoffenheim
0:3
14.03.2025
St. Pauli
-
Hoffenheim
1:0
02.11.2024
Hoffenheim
-
St. Pauli
0:2
Latest results of Hoffenheim
Latest results of St. Pauli
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich ✔ | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 105:27 | 78 | 76 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 60:29 | 31 | 64 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 60:38 | 22 | 56 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 56:36 | 20 | 56 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 59:39 | 20 | 52 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 57:43 | 14 | 51 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 54:54 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 42:47 | -5 | 40 |
| 9 | Mainz | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 35:44 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 36:53 | -17 | 33 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 33:50 | -17 | 32 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:45 | -13 | 31 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 43:50 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | B. Monchengladbach | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 35:49 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 32:52 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 25:50 | -25 | 25 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 39:65 | -26 | 21 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 32:64 | -32 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
Clinched Spots for Teams
Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
