Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/02/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

PreZero Arena (Sinsheim).

Bundesliga - Round 24
Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.72	0.78
Ball possession
65%	35%
Total shots
21	11
Shots on target
11	3
Big chances
4	1
Corner kicks
10	3
Passes
80% (456/567)	68% (208/305)
Yellow cards
1	2
Expected goals (xG)
2.72	0.78
xG on target (xGOT)
2.75	0.90
Total shots
21	11
Shots on target
11	3
Shots off target
9	5
Blocked shots
1	3
Shots inside the box
16	8
Shots outside the box
5	3
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
4	1
Corner kicks
10	3
Touches in opposition box
41	17
Accurate through passes
2	0
Offsides
4	1
Free kicks
7	13
Passes
80% (456/567)	68% (208/305)
Long passes
54% (33/61)	25% (19/75)
Passes in final third
60% (121/201)	51% (45/89)
Crosses
39% (12/31)	29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
2.80	0.64
Throw ins
26	24
Fouls
13	7
Tackles
91% (10/11)	57% (8/14)
Duels won
55	54
Clearances
36	51
Interceptions
11	11
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
2	11
xGOT faced
0.90	2.75
Goals prevented
-0.10	2.75

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Kabak O. 🟨,
38', Sinani D. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
62', Burger W. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
74', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
74', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
75', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
80', Fujita J. 🟨,
83', Ilzer C. 🟨,
86', Hajdari A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
88', Sinani D. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,

Chances of winning

Hoffenheim
62.2%

Draw
22.2%

St. Pauli
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

20.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

20.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Hoffenheim - St. Pauli Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.58)	4.28 ↓ (4.57)	6.15 ↑ (5.03)	4.7% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Hoffenheim - St. Pauli?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -1 - Hoffenheim (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Hoffenheim (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Hoffenheim (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hoffenheim will win (33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 11 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
Hoffenheim is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Hoffenheim is the undisputed favorite.
There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Illness) Campbell C. (Ankle Injury) Frees K. (Illness) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury) Moerstedt M. (Illness)
There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).
Including home match between the teams, Hoffenheim won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

How many head-to-head matches has Hoffenheim won against St. Pauli?

Hoffenheim has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Hoffenheim?

St. Pauli has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Hoffenheim - St. Pauli were as follows:

28.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 3:2

19.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 0:3

14.03.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 1:0

02.11.2024 Hoffenheim - St. Pauli 0:2

Latest results of Hoffenheim

21.02.2026 Köln - Hoffenheim 2:2 ✺

14.02.2026 Hoffenheim - Freiburg 3:0 ✺

08.02.2026 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 5:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Hoffenheim - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺

27.01.2026 Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim 0:2 ✺

Latest results of St. Pauli

22.02.2026 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 2:1 ✺

14.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 4:0 ✺

07.02.2026 St. Pauli - Stuttgart 2:1 ✺

03.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 3:0 ✺

31.01.2026 Augsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	27	22	4	1	97:25	72	70
2	Dortmund	27	18	7	2	58:28	30	61
3	Stuttgart	27	16	5	6	56:36	20	53
4	RB Leipzig	27	15	5	7	53:35	18	50
5	Hoffenheim	27	15	5	7	54:39	15	50
6	Bayer Leverkusen	27	13	7	7	52:36	16	46
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	27	10	8	9	50:51	-1	38
8	Freiburg	27	10	7	10	39:44	-5	37
9	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	31:46	-15	31
10	Augsburg	27	9	4	14	33:50	-17	31
11	Mainz	27	7	9	11	33:42	-9	30
12	Hamburger SV	27	7	9	11	31:40	-9	30
13	B. Monchengladbach	27	7	8	12	33:46	-13	29
14	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	30:47	-17	28
15	FC Koln	27	6	8	13	38:47	-9	26
16	St. Pauli	27	6	6	15	24:44	-20	24
17	Wolfsburg	27	5	6	16	35:57	-22	21
18	Heidenheim	27	3	6	18	27:61	-34	15

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga