Result
1:1
05/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 28
- Referee: Willenborg F. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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Africa | New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus |
Argentina | Disney+ |
Asia | beIN Connect MENA, TOD |
Australia | beIN Connect |
Austria | Sky Go Austria |
Belgium | DAZN 1 |
Canada | DAZN Canada |
Chile | Disney+ |
China | ZhiBo8 |
Colombia | Disney+ |
Denmark | See, Viaplay |
Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay |
France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free |
Germany | Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW |
Greece | Nova Sports Extra 1 |
Hungary | Net4+ |
Iceland | Viaplay |
India | Vision+ |
Indonesia | RCTI+ |
Japan | SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 6 |
Laos | beIN Connect |
Malaysia | beIN Connect |
Mexico | Sky Sport |
Netherlands | Viaplay |
New-zealand | beIN Connect |
North-central-america | Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte |
Norway | Viaplay |
Pakistan | Tapmad |
Peru | Disney+ |
Philippines | beIN Connect |
Poland | Viaplay |
Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
South-korea | Coupang Play |
Spain | DAZN Espana |
Sweden | Viaplay |
Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6 |
Thailand | beIN Connect |
Turkey | beIN Connect |
Uruguay | Disney+ |
Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Venezuela | Disney+ |
Vietnam | ON Plus |
World | Disney+, Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
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Expected Goals (xG) |
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1.62 | 0.95 |
Ball Possession |
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58% | 42% |
Total shots |
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13 | 9 |
Shots on target |
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3 | 5 |
Big Chances |
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3 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
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4 | 4 |
Passes |
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77% (329/425) | 68% (212/313) |
Yellow Cards |
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4 | 4 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
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1.62 | 0.95 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
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1.01 | 0.97 |
Total shots |
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13 | 9 |
Shots on target |
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3 | 5 |
Shots off target |
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9 | 3 |
Blocked Shots |
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1 | 1 |
Shots inside the Box |
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10 | 8 |
Shots outside the Box |
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3 | 1 |
Hit the Woodwork |
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2 | 1 |
Big Chances |
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3 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
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4 | 4 |
Touches in opposition box |
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27 | 20 |
Offsides |
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1 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
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8 | 12 |
Passes |
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77% (329/425) | 68% (212/313) |
Long passes |
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48% (31/64) | 32% (23/73) |
Passes in final third |
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67% (94/140) | 46% (38/82) |
Crosses |
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28% (8/29) | 36% (5/14) |
Expected assists (xA) |
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1.64 | 1.45 |
Fouls |
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12 | 8 |
Tackles |
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75% (12/16) | 67% (14/21) |
Duels won |
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56 | 54 |
Clearances Total |
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27 | 38 |
Interceptions |
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5 | 9 |
Errors leading to shot |
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1 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
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0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
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4 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
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0.97 | 1.01 |
Goals prevented |
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-0.03 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 33', Mwene P. 🟨,
- 34', 0 - 1, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Rosenboom L. (A),
- 44', Zec D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', Remberg N. 🟨,
- 67', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
- 68', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
- 68', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
- 75', 1 - 1, Weiper N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
- 75', Tolkin J. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
- 75', Skrzybski S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
- 81', Henriksen B. 🟨,
- 82', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
- 83', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 84', Jenz M. 🟨,
- 85', Becker T. 🟨,
- 90+1', Amiri N. 🟨,
- 90+1', Rosenboom L. 🟨,
- 90+2', Amiri N. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/ah5shsy3
Chances of winning
Mainz 66.6% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 13.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Mainz - Holstein Kiel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.44 ↓ (1.5) |
4.84 ↑ (4.66) |
7.03 ↑ (6.29) |
4.3% (4.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Mainz - Holstein Kiel?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 61.5% – 95.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
- Mainz is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Recent matches Holstein Kiel is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- In this match Mainz is the unquestionable favorite.
- There will not play in Mainz: Bell S.
(Thigh Injury)
Kohr D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P.
(Concussion)
Kelati A. Y.
(Knee Injury)
Kleine-Bekel C.
(Knee Injury)
Nekic I.
(Muscle Injury)
Pichler B.
(Injury)
- Last 2 head-to-head matches Mainz won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 3:1).
- Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Holstein Kiel?
Mainz has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Holstein Kiel won against Mainz?
Holstein Kiel has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Holstein Kiel were as follows:
24.11.2024
Holstein Kiel
-
Mainz
0:3
Latest results of Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
5 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | Hamburger SV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
8 | Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
9 | B. Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
10 | Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
11 | FC Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | Mainz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
13 | Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
14 | St. Pauli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | Heidenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
18 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga