Mainz vs Holstein Kiel – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Mainz - Holstein Kiel
Result
1:1
05/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 28
  • Referee: Willenborg F. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports Extra 1
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaRCTI+
japanJapanSKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 6
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 6
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.95
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
139
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
44
Passes
77% (329/425)68% (212/313)
Yellow Cards
44
Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.95
xG on target (xGOT)
1.010.97
Total shots
139
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
93
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
108
Shots outside the Box
31
Hit the Woodwork
21
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
44
Touches in opposition box
2720
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
812
Passes
77% (329/425)68% (212/313)
Long passes
48% (31/64)32% (23/73)
Passes in final third
67% (94/140)46% (38/82)
Crosses
28% (8/29)36% (5/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.641.45
Fouls
128
Tackles
75% (12/16)67% (14/21)
Duels won
5654
Clearances Total
2738
Interceptions
59
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
0.971.01
Goals prevented
-0.030.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 33', Mwene P. 🟨,
  • 34', 0 - 1, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Rosenboom L. (A),
  • 44', Zec D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 51', Remberg N. 🟨,
  • 67', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 68', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
  • 68', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
  • 75', 1 - 1, Weiper N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
  • 75', Tolkin J. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
  • 75', Skrzybski S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
  • 81', Henriksen B. 🟨,
  • 82', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
  • 83', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 84', Jenz M. 🟨,
  • 85', Becker T. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Rosenboom L. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Amiri N. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/ah5shsy3

Chances of winning


Mainz
66.6%		Draw
20%		Holstein Kiel
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
64.1% 20.6% 15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67% 19.7% 14.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
    •

    Mainz - Holstein Kiel Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.44 ↓
    (1.5)    		 4.84 ↑
    (4.66)    		 7.03 ↑
    (6.29)    		 4.3%
    (4.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Holstein Kiel?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 61.5% – 95.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
    • Mainz is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Recent matches Holstein Kiel is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • In this match Mainz is the unquestionable favorite.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Nekic I. (Muscle Injury) Pichler B. (Injury)
    • Last 2 head-to-head matches Mainz won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 3:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Holstein Kiel were as follows:
    24.11.2024 Holstein Kiel - Mainz 0:3
    Latest results of Mainz
    30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1 ✺
    15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2 ✺
    07.03.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:3 ✺
    01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    29.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Werder Bremen 0:3 ✺
    20.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Braunschweig 2:2
    08.03.2025 Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart 2:2 ✺
    02.03.2025 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 0:1 ✺
    22.02.2025 Holstein Kiel - Bayer Leverkusen 0:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich11006:063
    2Union Berlin00000:000
    3Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig10010:6-60

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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