Result
1:1
05/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 28
- Referee: Willenborg F. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria |
 Belgium | DAZN 1 |
 Canada | DAZN Canada |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Denmark | See, Viaplay |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free |
 Germany | Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports Extra 1 |
 Hungary | Net4+ |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | Vision+ |
 Indonesia | RCTI+ |
 Japan | SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 6 |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect |
 Poland | Viaplay |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus |
 World | Disney+, Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.62 | 0.95 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (329/425) | 68% (212/313) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.62 | 0.95 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 20 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (329/425) | 68% (212/313) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (31/64) | 32% (23/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (94/140) | 46% (38/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (8/29) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.45 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 54 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 27 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 33', Mwene P. 🟨,
- 34', 0 - 1, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Rosenboom L. (A),
- 44', Zec D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', Remberg N. 🟨,
- 67', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
- 68', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
- 68', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
- 75', 1 - 1, Weiper N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
- 75', Tolkin J. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
- 75', Skrzybski S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
- 81', Henriksen B. 🟨,
- 82', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
- 83', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
- 84', Jenz M. 🟨,
- 85', Becker T. 🟨,
- 90+1', Amiri N. 🟨,
- 90+1', Rosenboom L. 🟨,
- 90+2', Amiri N. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/ah5shsy3
Chances of winning
Mainz
66.6% | Draw
20% | Holstein Kiel
13.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Mainz - Holstein Kiel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.44 ↓
(1.5) |
4.84 ↑
(4.66) |
7.03 ↑
(6.29) |
4.3%
(4.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Mainz - Holstein Kiel?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 61.5% – 95.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DC - Mainz (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Mainz (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
- Mainz is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Recent matches Holstein Kiel is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- In this match Mainz is the unquestionable favorite.
- There will not play in Mainz: Bell S.
(Thigh Injury)
Kohr D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P.
(Concussion)
Kelati A. Y.
(Knee Injury)
Kleine-Bekel C.
(Knee Injury)
Nekic I.
(Muscle Injury)
Pichler B.
(Injury)
- Last 2 head-to-head matches Mainz won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 3:1).
- Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Holstein Kiel?
Mainz has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Holstein Kiel won against Mainz?
Holstein Kiel has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Holstein Kiel were as follows:
24.11.2024
Holstein Kiel
-
Mainz
0:3
Latest results of Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 88:23 | 65 | 63 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 51:25 | 26 | 52 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 49:31 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 48:32 | 16 | 46 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 46:33 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 44:29 | 15 | 40 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 48:49 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 34:39 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 30:41 | -11 | 31 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 29:38 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 26:34 | -8 | 26 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:39 | -12 | 25 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 33:41 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | Mainz | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 27:39 | -12 | 23 |
| 15 | St. Pauli | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23:40 | -17 | 23 |
| 16 | Werder Bremen | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:44 | -19 | 22 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 33:53 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22:53 | -31 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
