Result
2:7
03/10/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 3.04 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 26 | 20 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 7.69% (2/26) | 35% (7/20) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 13 | 24 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 65% (13/20) | 92.31% (24/26) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/2) | 50% (2/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 100% (2/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 23 | 32 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 41.82 | 58.18 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 3)
- 01:52, 0 - 1, Antti-Roiko A. (G), Tieksola T. (A),
- 02:59, 1 - 1, Johansson S. (G), Henman L. (A), Looke J. (A2)
- 07:09, 1 - 2, Raty Aku (G), Virta P. (A), Tardif B. (A2)
- 07:57, 2 - 2, Borg E. (G), Kerkkanen J. (A), Hermonen J. (A2)
- 11:33, Salmela T. (2 min),
- 18:39, Pelli A. (2 min),
- 19:37, 2 - 3, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 3)
- 01:25, 2 - 4, Tardif B. (G), Virta P. (A), Tieksola T. (A2)
- 01:25, Pavlat D. ↓, Taponen R. ↑,
- 02:48, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 03:52, Bjork M. (2 min),
- 13:19, 2 - 5, Hirvonen R. (G), Paaso A. (A),
- 14:42, 2 - 6, Paaso A. (G), Virta P. (A),
- 16:08, Svejkovsky L. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 07:38, 2 - 7, Raty Aku (G), Tichacek J. (A),
Chances of winning
Ilves
50.1% | Draw
22.5% | Kärpät
27.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Ilves have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Ilves - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(1.9) |
4.14 ↓
(4.3) |
3.42 ↓
(3.43) |
6.5%
(5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
What is the prediction for Ilves - Kärpät?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kärpät will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Liiga (Play Out: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.
- Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Kärpät is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Ilves might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 50:47. (average 2.5:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 2.4:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Kärpät?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ilves?
Kärpät has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Kärpät were as follows:
12.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
6:2
31.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
3:2
08.01.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:4
07.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Ilves
2:4
11.10.2024
Ilves
-
Kärpät
4:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Assat | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 39:23 | 24 |
| 2 | JYP | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 47:36 | 24 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 44:35 | 23 |
| 4 | KooKoo | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 46:41 | 22 |
| 5 | Tappara | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 39:28 | 21 |
| 6 | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 36:35 | 21 |
| 7 | Lukko | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35:34 | 20 |
| 8 | Jukurit | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 34:39 | 20 |
| 9 | KalPa | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33:34 | 19 |
| 10 | TPS Turku | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 29:28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 32:34 | 18 |
| 12 | Karpat | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45:45 | 16 |
| 13 | Vaasan Sport | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 34:40 | 14 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23:34 | 13 |
| 15 | Ilves | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31:45 | 12 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25:41 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
