Result
6:2
12/09/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 4.20 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 30 | 32 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 20 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 20% (6/30) | 6.25% (2/32) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 30 | 24 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 93.75% (30/32) | 82.76% (24/29) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (5/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 36 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 43.75 | 56.25 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 00:32, 1 - 0, Raty Aku (G), Erholtz E. (A), Nutivaara M. (A2)
- 04:13, Tardif B. (2 min),
- 06:12, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 09:09, 2 - 0, Salmela T. (G), Tieksola T. (A), Ohtamaa A. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 02:22, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 02:22, Paaso A. (2 min),
- 14:53, Pelli A. (2 min),
- 16:13, Tieksola T. (2 min),
- 20:00, Tikka T. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (4 - 2)
- 01:53, 3 - 0, Hirvonen R. (G),
- 09:05, 3 - 1, Borg E. (G), Nattinen J. (A), Klingberg C. (A2)
- 12:26, 4 - 1, Tardif B. (G),
- 14:57, 4 - 2, Johansson S. (G), Jasek L. (A),
- 16:19, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 18:36, 5 - 2, Erholtz E. (G), Hirvonen R. (A),
- 19:16, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 19:16, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 19:45, 6 - 2, Kantner M. (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
Chances of winning
Kärpät
41.6% | Draw
24% | Ilves
34.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Kärpät - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.27 ↑
(2.16) |
3.88 ↑
(3.86) |
2.74 ↓
(2.99) |
6.3%
(5.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Kärpät - Ilves?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 2.
- In recent matches, Kärpät has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Ilves is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 41:52. (average 2.1:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 2.2:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ilves?
Kärpät has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Kärpät?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Ilves were as follows:
31.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
3:2
08.01.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:4
07.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Ilves
2:4
11.10.2024
Ilves
-
Kärpät
4:3
03.02.2024
Kärpät
-
Ilves
1:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | TPS Turku | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 2 | Kiekko-Espoo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:16 | 14 |
| 3 | Assat | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 |
| 4 | Tappara | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 12 |
| 5 | JYP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:14 | 12 |
| 6 | Lukko | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22:19 | 9 |
| 7 | KooKoo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:22 | 8 |
| 8 | KalPa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:25 | 8 |
| 9 | SaiPa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19:20 | 7 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 11 | Vaasan Sport | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:15 | 6 |
| 12 | Karpat | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:18 | 6 |
| 13 | Jukurit | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:18 | 6 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 15 | Ilves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:23 | 5 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:23 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
