Result
1:2
07/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 2.57 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 16 | 30 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 6.25% (1/16) | 6.67% (2/30) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 93.33% (28/30) | 93.75% (15/16) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (1/1) | 50% (1/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 22 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 56.86 | 43.14 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 2nd Period (0 - 2)
- 17:24, 0 - 1, Soini S. (G), Mantykivi M. (A), Quenneville P. (A2)
- 18:18, 0 - 2, Kucerik R. (G), Torok M. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
- 19:16, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 19:16, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 11:56, Utunen T. (2 min),
- 13:08, 1 - 2, Jonsson S. (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
Chances of winning
Kärpät
24.6% | Draw
22% | Ilves
53.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kärpät's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+11.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kärpät, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-12.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Kärpät - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.8 ↑
(2.67) |
4.23 ↑
(4.07) |
1.74 ↓
(2.19) |
7.5%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 4.
- Kärpät has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ilves is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Ilves has had a series of home games.
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.98.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 54:48. (average 2.7:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 2.8:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ilves?
Kärpät has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Kärpät?
Ilves has won 8 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Ilves were as follows:
30.12.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:2
03.10.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
2:7
12.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
6:2
31.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
3:2
08.01.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:4
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Bye | |
| 2 | Lukko (5) | Hameenlinna (12) | 1 : 3 |
| 3 | Ilves (4) | Bye | |
| 4 | KalPa (7) | IFK Helsinki (10) | 3 : 2 |
| 5 | KooKoo (2) | Bye | |
| 6 | JYP (6) | Pelicans (11) | 0 : 3 |
| 7 | SaiPa (3) | Bye | |
| 8 | Assat (8) | Kiekko-Espoo (9) | 3 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Hameenlinna (12) | 1 : 1 |
| 2 | Ilves (4) | KalPa (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | KooKoo (2) | Pelicans (11) | 1 : 1 |
| 4 | SaiPa (3) | Assat (8) | 1 : 1 |
