Result
1:2
07/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 2.57 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 16 | 30 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 6.25% (1/16) | 6.67% (2/30) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 93.33% (28/30) | 93.75% (15/16) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (1/1) | 50% (1/2) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 22 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 56.86 | 43.14 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 2nd Period (0 - 2)
- 17:24, 0 - 1, Soini S. (G), Mantykivi M. (A), Quenneville P. (A2)
- 18:18, 0 - 2, Kucerik R. (G), Torok M. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
- 19:16, Engberg T. (2 min),
- 19:16, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 11:56, Utunen T. (2 min),
- 13:08, 1 - 2, Jonsson S. (G), Hirvonen R. (A), Erholtz E. (A2)
Chances of winning
Kärpät
24.6% | Draw
22% | Ilves
53.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kärpät's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+11.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kärpät, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-12.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Kärpät - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.8 ↑
(2.67) |
4.23 ↑
(4.07) |
1.74 ↓
(2.19) |
7.5%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 4.
- Kärpät has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ilves is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Ilves has had a series of home games.
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.98.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 54:48. (average 2.7:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 2.8:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ilves?
Kärpät has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Kärpät?
Ilves has won 8 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Ilves were as follows:
30.12.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:2
03.10.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
2:7
12.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
6:2
31.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
3:2
08.01.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
