Result
3:2 OT
30/12/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.03 | 2.63 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 28 | 24 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 10.71% (3/28) | 8.33% (2/24) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 17 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 91.67% (22/24) | 89.29% (25/28) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 100% (1/1) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/1) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 32 | 34 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 48.48 | 51.52 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 07:30, 0 - 1, Kantner M. (G), Virta P. (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
- 10:59, Salmela T. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 1)
- 01:03, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 02:33, 0 - 2, Antti-Roiko A. (G), Bjork M. (A), Nutivaara M. (A2)
- 06:50, Tikka T. (2 min),
- 14:26, 1 - 2, Engberg T. (G), Ratinen S. (A), Nyberg J. (A2)
- 16:58, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 18:29, 2 - 2, Jasek L. (G), Johansson S. (A), Henman L. (A2)
- 19:44, Jonsson S. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 01:17, Soini K. (2 min),
- Overtime (1 - 0)
- 04:53, 3 - 2, Kucerik R. (G), Armalis M. (A),
Chances of winning
Ilves
58.9% | Draw
20.8% | Kärpät
20.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Ilves - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↑
(1.56) |
4.53 ↓
(4.61) |
4.63 ↓
(4.92) |
7%
(6.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
What is the prediction for Ilves - Kärpät?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kärpät will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 1.
- Ilves is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Kärpät's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Kärpät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Kärpät has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Ilves is a strong favorite.
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 47:53. (average 2.4:2.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 2.1:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Kärpät?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Ilves?
Kärpät has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Kärpät were as follows:
03.10.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
2:7
12.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
6:2
31.01.2025
Kärpät
-
Ilves
3:2
08.01.2025
Ilves
-
Kärpät
3:4
07.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Ilves
2:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 36 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 128:84 | 72 |
| 2 | Lukko | 36 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 112:90 | 66 |
| 3 | JYP | 34 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 128:99 | 66 |
| 4 | SaiPa | 37 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 125:102 | 65 |
| 5 | KooKoo | 36 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 125:97 | 63 |
| 6 | Ilves | 36 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 114:98 | 63 |
| 7 | Assat | 36 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 106:89 | 62 |
| 8 | KalPa | 35 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 107:114 | 56 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 37 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 97:111 | 50 |
| 10 | TPS Turku | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 86:102 | 48 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 36 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 83:115 | 47 |
| 12 | Jukurit | 36 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 82:96 | 46 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 69:88 | 45 |
| 14 | Karpat | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 115:124 | 42 |
| 15 | Hameenlinna | 38 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 91:113 | 42 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 36 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 73:119 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
