Result
3:2
17/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.69 | 1.75 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (3/21) | 8.7% (2/23) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 91.3% (21/23) | 85.71% (18/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/4) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 100% (4/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 31 | 24 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 56.36 | 43.64 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 03:20, 1 - 0, Looke J. (G), Johansson S. (A),
- 09:43, Latvala O. (2 min),
- 16:38, Henman L. (2 min),
- 19:01, 2 - 0, Ratinen S. (G), Looke J. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 03:26, 3 - 0, Quenneville P. (G), Johansson S. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 07:13, 3 - 1, Gelinas E. (G), Saarela A. (A), Westerholm Po. (A2)
- 13:01, Almari N. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 00:25, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),
- 00:46, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 05:09, 3 - 2, Stenqvist J. (G), Almari N. (A), Intonen A. (A2)
- 12:52, Beaucage A. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Ilves
49.7% | Draw
23% | Lukko
27.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Ilves - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(1.93) |
4.01 ↑
(3.86) |
3.44 ↑
(3.44) |
7.2%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - Lukko?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
- Ilves has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lukko is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 61:59. (average 3.1:3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 3.4:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Lukko?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ilves?
Lukko has won 8 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Lukko were as follows:
04.10.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
1:0
20.09.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
6:3
25.04.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
4:5
25.02.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
5:1
27.12.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
5:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
