Result
6:3
20/09/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.73 | 3.16 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 19 | 28 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 31.58% (6/19) | 10.71% (3/28) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 89.29% (25/28) | 72.22% (13/18) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 25% (1/4) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 75% (3/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 25 | 37 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 40.32 | 59.68 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 2)
- 02:32, 1 - 0, Torok M. (G), Johansson S. (A), Looke J. (A2)
- 08:36, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 10:50, Ikonen H. (2 min),
- 15:05, 2 - 0, Johansson S. (G), Soini S. (A), Svejkovsky L. (A2)
- 17:35, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 19:30, 2 - 1, Jandric S. (G), Tuuva L. (A), Valila A. (A2)
- 19:48, 2 - 2, Joki A. (G), Peters A. (A), Ikonen H. (A2)
- 2nd Period (3 - 1)
- 00:43, 3 - 2, Pelli A. (G), Torok M. (A), Jasek L. (A2)
- 04:37, 4 - 2, Kucerik R. (G), Jasek L. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 08:41, Peters A. (2 min),
- 08:52, 5 - 2, Looke J. (G), Johansson S. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 08:52, Salonen D. ↓, Sammalniemi J. ↑,
- 11:25, 5 - 3, Ruohomaa M. (G), Hamalainen L. (A), Peters A. (A2)
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 03:41, Nyberg J. (2 min),
- 03:41, Ikonen H. (2 min),
- 05:38, Latvala O. (2 min),
- 11:38, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 16:28, Krannila J. (2 min),
- 19:35, 6 - 3, Jasek L. (G), Torok M. (A),
Chances of winning
Ilves
48.9% | Draw
22.6% | Lukko
28.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilves's performance.Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lukko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilves that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+7.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lukko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ilves - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(2.22) |
4.22 ↓
(4.5) |
3.4 ↑
(2.64) |
6.5%
(5.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - Lukko?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Lukko will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 4.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Ilves has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 59:64. (average 3:3.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 3.1:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Lukko?
Ilves has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ilves?
Lukko has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Lukko were as follows:
25.04.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
4:5
25.02.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
5:1
27.12.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
5:3
29.10.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
2:3
28.09.2024
Ilves
-
Lukko
3:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | TPS Turku | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 2 | Kiekko-Espoo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:16 | 14 |
| 3 | Assat | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 |
| 4 | Tappara | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 12 |
| 5 | JYP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:14 | 12 |
| 6 | Lukko | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22:19 | 9 |
| 7 | KooKoo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:22 | 8 |
| 8 | KalPa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:25 | 8 |
| 9 | SaiPa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19:20 | 7 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 11 | Vaasan Sport | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:15 | 6 |
| 12 | Karpat | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:18 | 6 |
| 13 | Jukurit | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:18 | 6 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 15 | Ilves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:23 | 5 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:23 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
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