Result
3:2
17/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.69 | 1.75 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (3/21) | 8.7% (2/23) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 91.3% (21/23) | 85.71% (18/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/4) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 100% (4/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 31 | 24 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 56.36 | 43.64 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 03:20, 1 - 0, Looke J. (G), Johansson S. (A),
- 09:43, Latvala O. (2 min),
- 16:38, Henman L. (2 min),
- 19:01, 2 - 0, Ratinen S. (G), Looke J. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 03:26, 3 - 0, Quenneville P. (G), Johansson S. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 07:13, 3 - 1, Gelinas E. (G), Saarela A. (A), Westerholm Po. (A2)
- 13:01, Almari N. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 00:25, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),
- 00:46, Johansson S. (2 min),
- 05:09, 3 - 2, Stenqvist J. (G), Almari N. (A), Intonen A. (A2)
- 12:52, Beaucage A. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Ilves
49.7% | Draw
23% | Lukko
27.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Ilves - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(1.93) |
4.01 ↑
(3.86) |
3.44 ↑
(3.44) |
7.2%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - Lukko?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.
- Ilves has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lukko is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 61:59. (average 3.1:3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 3.4:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Lukko?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ilves?
Lukko has won 8 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Lukko were as follows:
04.10.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
1:0
20.09.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
6:3
25.04.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
4:5
25.02.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
5:1
27.12.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
5:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
