Independiente del Valle vs El Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

02/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito).

Liga Pro - Round 23
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.46	0.24
Ball Possession
65%	35%
Total shots
10	11
Shots on target
2	2
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
6	4
Passes
87% (398/458)	75% (184/245)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.46	0.24
xG on target (xGOT)
0.70	0.66
Total shots
10	11
Shots on target
2	2
Shots off target
4	7
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
8	2
Shots outside the Box
2	9
Hit the Woodwork
1	1
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
6	4
Touches in opposition box
20	7
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
10	9
Passes
87% (398/458)	75% (184/245)
Long passes
69% (37/54)	36% (15/42)
Passes in final third
68% (67/98)	63% (46/73)
Crosses
21% (5/24)	0% (0/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.60	0.14
Throw-ins
13	16
Fouls
9	10
Tackles
88% (7/8)	80% (8/10)
Duels won
28	32
Clearances
16	25
Interceptions
12	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	1
xGOT faced
0.66	0.70
Goals prevented
0.66	-0.30

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Hernandez B. 🟨,
45+1', Briones R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Mercado P. ⚽,
55', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
59', Briones R. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
59', Velez C. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
67', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
72', Spinelli C. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
73', Cazares ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
76', Bedoya A. 🟨,
85', Arroyo J. P. 🟨,
89', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
90+1', Rodriguez A. ↓, Pata E. ↑,

Chances of winning

Independiente del Valle
66.5%

Draw
21.2%

El Nacional
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

18.8%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.5%

17.8%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Independiente del Valle - El Nacional Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.33)	4.39 ↓ (4.93)	7.6 ↓ (7.93)	7.6% (8.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle - El Nacional?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 50.6% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 3.
Ind del Valle is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
El Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Ind del Valle is the clear favorite.
We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 1.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against El Nacional?

Independiente del Valle has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Independiente del Valle?

El Nacional has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente del Valle - El Nacional were as follows:

14.04.2025 El Nacional - Independiente del Valle 1:3

27.11.2024 Independiente del Valle - El Nacional 0:1

03.11.2024 Independiente del Valle - El Nacional 2:0

12.05.2024 El Nacional - Independiente del Valle 1:2

02.12.2023 El Nacional - Independiente del Valle 2:1

Latest results of Independiente del Valle

27.07.2025 Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente del Valle 0:3 ✺

22.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Independiente del Valle 1:1 ✺

18.07.2025 Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas 2:1 ✺

15.07.2025 Independiente del Valle - Vasco da Gama 4:0 ✺

11.07.2025 Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle 1:2 ✺

Latest results of El Nacional

25.07.2025 El Nacional - Libertad Loja 2:2 ✺

19.07.2025 Orense - El Nacional 1:1 ✺

14.07.2025 SD Aucas - El Nacional 1:0 ✺

06.07.2025 El Nacional - Manta 1:0 ✺

29.06.2025 Técnico Universitario - El Nacional 0:0 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	25	15	8	2	45:20	25	53
2	LDU Quito	25	12	8	5	41:24	17	44
3	Barcelona SC	25	13	5	7	37:29	8	44
4	Libertad	26	11	8	7	40:34	6	41
5	Dep. Cuenca	25	11	6	8	30:25	5	39
6	Aucas	26	11	5	10	35:37	-2	38
7	Orense	25	11	5	9	27:29	-2	38
8	U. Catolica	25	9	9	7	46:33	13	36
9	Emelec	25	9	8	8	24:28	-4	35
10	EL Nacional	25	7	7	11	30:35	-5	28
11	Delfin	25	6	10	9	24:37	-13	28
12	Macara	25	6	9	10	23:26	-3	27
13	Manta	25	5	10	10	31:42	-11	25
14	Tecnico U	25	6	7	12	24:35	-11	25
15	Vinotinto	25	6	6	13	29:36	-7	24
16	Mushuc Runa ✔	25	5	5	15	27:43	-16	20

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )