Result
1:0
02/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 23
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.24 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/458) | 75% (184/245) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/458) | 75% (184/245) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 69% (37/54) | 36% (15/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (67/98) | 63% (46/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (5/24) | 0% (0/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.14 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (7/8) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 28 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.70 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.66 | -0.30 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 44', Hernandez B. 🟨,
- 45+1', Briones R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', 1 - 0, Mercado P. ⚽,
- 55', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
- 59', Briones R. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
- 59', Velez C. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 67', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 72', Spinelli C. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
- 73', Cazares ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
- 76', Bedoya A. 🟨,
- 85', Arroyo J. P. 🟨,
- 89', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
- 90+1', Rodriguez A. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Independiente del Valle
66.5% | Draw
21.2% | El Nacional
12.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Independiente del Valle - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↑
(1.33) |
4.39 ↓
(4.93) |
7.6 ↓
(7.93) |
7.6%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 50.6% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - El Nacional (2.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0, 1st Half - El Nacional (4.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 3.
- Ind del Valle is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- El Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Ind del Valle is the clear favorite.
- We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind del Valle won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 1.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind del Valle won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against El Nacional?
Independiente del Valle has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Independiente del Valle?
El Nacional has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente del Valle - El Nacional were as follows:
14.04.2025
El Nacional
-
Independiente del Valle
1:3
27.11.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
El Nacional
0:1
03.11.2024
Independiente del Valle
-
El Nacional
2:0
12.05.2024
El Nacional
-
Independiente del Valle
1:2
02.12.2023
El Nacional
-
Independiente del Valle
2:1
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22:13 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21:8 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13:10 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Aucas | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Guayaquil City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10:11 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:16 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Mushuc Runa | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Macara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Orense | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Delfin | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5:6 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Emelec | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9:15 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Leones del Norte | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Libertad | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Tecnico U | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9:13 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Manta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4:14 | -10 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
