Independiente Medellín vs Atlético Bucaramanga – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/02/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín).

Primera A - Apertura - Round 9
Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.64	0.58
Ball possession
58%	42%
Total shots
21	6
Shots on target
11	3
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
12	2
Passes
81% (319/392)	76% (214/282)
Yellow cards
4	2
Expected goals (xG)
2.64	0.58
xG on target (xGOT)
3.63	0.70
Total shots
21	6
Shots on target
11	3
Shots off target
4	2
Blocked shots
6	1
Shots inside the box
19	3
Shots outside the box
2	3
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
12	2
Touches in opposition box
38	10
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	3
Free kicks
8	10
Passes
81% (319/392)	76% (214/282)
Long passes
51% (21/41)	43% (24/56)
Passes in final third
71% (77/108)	59% (47/79)
Crosses
36% (8/22)	0% (0/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.27	0.73
Throw ins
20	14
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
100% (11/11)	88% (7/8)
Duels won
39	38
Clearances
17	26
Interceptions
4	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
1	12
xGOT faced
0.70	3.63
Goals prevented
-1.30	2.63

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', Balanta M. 🟨,
32', Larrosa E. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Batalla E. ⚽, Londono K. (A),
37', 0 - 2, Batalla E. ⚽, Gutierrez A. (A),
38', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
45+1', Londono K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mantilla K. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Chaverra F. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Mosquera J. ↓, Salazar J. ↑,
63', Loboa H. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
63', Balanta M. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
70', Londono K. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
72', Chaverra F. ↓, Fabra F. ↑,
72', Moreno D. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
80', Charrupi G. ↓, Zarate A. ↑,
80', Batalla E. ↓, Romana C. ↑,
89', Moreno D. 🟨,
90+4', Romana C. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/5smcecp3

Chances of winning

Independiente Medellín
35.9%

Draw
31.3%

Atlético Bucaramanga
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

30.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.4)	2.98 ↓ (3.09)	2.87 ↓ (3.03)	6.6% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga?

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 4.
Ind Medellín is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Bucaramanga has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Ind Medellín will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:3. (average 1.8:0.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Atlético Bucaramanga?

Independiente Medellín has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Bucaramanga won against Independiente Medellín?

Atlético Bucaramanga has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga were as follows:

29.10.2025 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga 3:0

09.05.2025 Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Medellín 2:0

03.11.2024 Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Medellín 2:3

14.04.2024 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga 1:0

25.09.2023 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga 2:0

Latest results of Independiente Medellín

24.02.2026 Independiente Medellín - Liverpool Montevideo 0:0 ✺

20.02.2026 Llaneros SA - Independiente Medellín 2:2 ✺

17.02.2026 Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente Medellín 1:2 ✺

14.02.2026 Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pereira 1:1 ✺

10.02.2026 Cúcuta Deportivo - Independiente Medellín 1:3 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Bucaramanga

21.02.2026 Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Cali 0:0 ✺

15.02.2026 Rionegro Águilas - Atlético Bucaramanga Postponed ✺

10.02.2026 Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima 0:0 ✺

06.02.2026 Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Bucaramanga 0:0 ✺

01.02.2026 Atlético Bucaramanga - Alianza Valledupar 5:0 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atl. Nacional	12	9	0	3	26:9	17	27
2	Dep. Pasto	13	8	3	2	20:15	5	27
3	Once Caldas	13	6	5	2	24:17	7	23
4	Junior	13	7	1	5	19:18	1	22
5	Inter Bogotu00e1	13	5	6	2	17:18	-1	21
6	Millonarios	13	6	2	5	23:14	9	20
7	America De Cali	11	6	2	3	16:8	8	20
8	Deportes Tolima	12	5	5	2	15:9	6	20
9	Bucaramanga	12	4	7	1	16:8	8	19
10	Dep. Cali	13	4	4	5	14:12	2	16
11	Aguilas	12	4	4	4	12:12	0	16
12	Llaneros	12	3	6	3	14:13	1	15
13	Santa Fe	12	3	6	3	14:15	-1	15
14	Fortaleza	13	3	5	5	14:20	-6	14
15	Ind. Medellin	12	3	4	5	16:17	-1	13
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	13	3	2	8	11:23	-12	11
17	Alianza	12	2	5	5	7:19	-12	11
18	Cucuta	13	1	5	7	18:27	-9	8
19	Chico	12	2	2	8	10:20	-10	8
20	Pereira	12	0	6	6	12:24	-12	6

Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )